Modeling of a compound flood induced by the levee breach at Qianbujing Creek, Shanghai, during Typhoon Fitow

Levee-breach-induced flooding occurs occasionally but always causes considerable losses. A serious flood event occurred due to the collapse of a 15 m long levee section in Qianbujing Creek, Shanghai, China, during Typhoon Fitow in October 2013. Heavy rainfall associated with the typhoon intensified the flood severity (extent and depth). This study investigates the flood evolution to understand the dynamic nature of flooding and the compound effect using a well-established 2D hydro-inundation model (FloodMap) to reconstruct this typical event. This model coupled urban hydrological processes with flood inundation for high-resolution flood modeling, which has been applied in a number of different environments, and FloodMap is now the mainstream numerical simulation model used for flood scenarios. Our simulation results provide a comprehensive view of the spatial patterns of the flood evolution. The worst-hit areas are predicted to be low-lying settlements and farmland. Temporal evaluations suggest that the most critical time for flooding prevention is in the early 1–3 h after dike failure. In low-elevation areas, temporary drainage measures and flood defenses are equally important. The validation of the model demonstrates the reliability of the approach.

NNLO virtual and real leptonic corrections to muon-electron scattering

The recently proposed MUonE experiment at CERN aims at providing a novel determination of the leading order hadronic contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment through the study of elastic muon-electron scattering at relatively small momentum transfer. The anticipated accuracy of the order of 10ppm demands for high-precision predictions, including all the relevant radiative corrections. The fixed-order NNLO radiative corrections due to the emission of virtual and real leptonic pairs are described and their numerical impact is discussed for typical event selections of the MUonE experiment, by means of the upgraded Monte Carlo code Mesmer.

Now you see it, now you don’t: dynamism amplifies the typicality effect

Some safety events do not stabilise in a coherent state, presenting with transient or intermittent features. Such dynamism may pose problems for human performance, especially if combined with non-typical stimuli that are rarely encountered in everyday work. This may explain undesirable pilot behaviour and could be an important cognitive factor in recent aircraft accidents. Sixty-five airline pilots tested a real-world typicality gradient, composed of two cockpit events, a typical event, and a non-typical event, across two different forms of dynamism, a stable, single system transition, and an unstable, intermittent system transition. We found that non-typical event stimuli elicited a greater number of response errors and incurred an increased response latency when compared to typical event stimuli, replicating the typicality effect. These performance deteriorations were amplified when a form of unstable system dynamism was introduced. Typical stimuli were unaffected by dynamism. This indicates that dynamic, non-typical events are problematic for pilots and may lead to poor event recognition and response. Typical is advantageous, even if dynamic. Manufacturers and airlines should evolve pilot training and crew procedures to take account of variety in event dynamics.

Theoretic Model of Adversaries and Media Manipulation: A Two-Period Extension

Two adversarial actors interact controversially. Early incomplete evidence emerges about which actor is at fault. In period 1 of a two-period game, two media organizations identify ideologically with each of the two actors who are the players exerting manipulation efforts to support the actor they represent. In period 2, the full evidence emerges. Again, the two players exert efforts to support their preferred actor. This paper illustrates the players’ strategic dilemmas for the typical event that actor 1 is considerably at fault based on the early evidence, and much less at fault based on the full evidence. The model assumes that exerting effort in period 1 implies reward or punishment in period 2 depending on whether the full evidence exceeds the early evidence. Twelve parameters in the model are varied individually relative to a benchmark. For example, the players’ efforts are inverse U shaped to an extent in which the actors they identify with are at fault in the two periods. Increasing the evidence ratio intensity causes lower efforts since the players become more unequally matched.

Hadronic decays of Higgs boson at NNLO matched with parton shower

We present predictions for hadronic decays of the Higgs boson at next-to-next-to-leading order (NNLO) in QCD matched with parton shower based on the POWHEG framework. Those include decays into bottom quarks with full bottom-quark mass dependence, light quarks, and gluons in the heavy top quark effective theory. Our calculations describe exclusive decays of the Higgs boson with leading logarithmic accuracy in the Sudakov region and next-to-leading order (NLO) accuracy matched with parton shower in the three-jet region, with normalizations fixed to the partial width at NNLO. We estimated remaining perturbative uncertainties taking typical event shape variables as an example and demonstrated the need of future improvements on both parton shower and matrix element calculations. The calculations can be used immediately in evaluations of the physics performances of detector designs for future Higgs factories.

How do packet losses affect measures of averaged neural signals?

Recent advances in implanted device development have enabled chronic streaming of neural data to external devices allowing for long timescale, naturalistic recordings. However, characteristic data losses occur during wireless transmission. Estimates for the duration of these losses are typically uncertain reducing signal quality and impeding analyses. To characterize the effect of these losses on recovery of averaged neural signals, we simulated neural time series data for a typical event-related potential (ERP) experiment. We investigated how the signal duration and the degree of timing uncertainty affected the offset of the ERP, its duration in time, its amplitude, and the ability to resolve small differences corresponding to different task conditions. Simulations showed that long timescale signals were generally robust to the effects of packet losses apart from timing offsets while short timescale signals were significantly delocalized and attenuated. These results provide clarity on the types of signals that can be resolved using these datasets and provide clarity on the restrictions imposed by data losses on typical analyses.

Levee breach-induced compound flood modeling in Qianbujing Creek, Shanghai during Typhoon "Fitow"

Levee breach-induced flooding occurs occasionally but always causes considerable losses. A serious flood event occurred due to the collapse of a 15-m-long levee section in Qianbujing Creek, Shanghai, China, during typhoon "Fitow" in Oct, 2013. Heavy rainfall associated with the typhoon intensified the flood severity (extent and depth). This study investigates the flood evolution to understand the dynamic nature of flooding and the compound effect using a well-established 2D hydro-inundation model (Floodmap) to reconstruct this typical event. Our simulation results provide a comprehensive view of the spatial patterns of the flood evolution. The worst-hit areas are predicted to be low-lying settlement and farmland. Temporal evaluations suggest that the most critical time for flooding prevention is in the early hours after dike failure. In low-elevation areas, temporary drainage measures and flood defenses are equally important. The validation of the model demonstrates the reliability of the approach.

How Are Common Major Live Events Perceived? Exploring Differences Between and Variability of Different Typical Event Profiles and Raters

Research on major life events and personality change often focuses on the occurrence of specific life events such as childbirth, unemployment, or divorce. However, this typical approach has three important limitations: (1) Life events are typically measured categorically, (2) it is often assumed that people experience and change from the same event in the same way, and (3) external ratings of life events have unknown levels of validity. To address these limitations, we examined how common life events are typically perceived, how much perceptions of life events vary within events, and how well external ratings of events correspond to subjective ratings from people who experienced the events. We analyzed ratings of nine psychologically relevant characteristics of 10 common major life events from three different types of raters (N = 2,210). Each life event had a distinct subjectively rated profile that corresponded well to external ratings. Collectively, this study demonstrates that life events can be meaningfully described and differentiated with event characteristics. However, people’s individual perceptions of life events varied considerably even within events. Therefore, research on major life events and their associations with personality change should incorporate individual perceptions of the events to advance the understanding of these associations.

Levee breach-induced compound flood modeling in Qianbujing Creek, Shanghai during Typhoon “Fitow”

Levee breach-induced flooding occurs occasionally but always causes considerable losses. A serious flood event occurred due to the collapse of a 15-m-long levee section in Qianbujing Creek, Shanghai, China, during typhoon “Fitow” in Oct, 2013. Heavy rainfall associated with the typhoon intensified the flood extent. This study investigates the flood evolution to understand the dynamic nature of flooding and the compound effect using a well-established 2D hydro-inundation model (Floodmap) to reconstruct this typical event. Our simulation results provide a comprehensive view of the spatial patterns of the flood evolution. The worst-hit areas are predicted to be low-lying farmland. Temporal evaluations suggest that the most critical time for flooding prevention is in the early hours after dike failure. In low-elevation areas, temporary drainage measures and flood defenses are equally important. The validation of the model demonstrates the reliability of the approach.