How causal is a reciprocal effect? Contrasting traditional and new methods to investigate the reciprocal effects model of self-concept and achievement

The relationship between students’ subject-specific academic self-concept and their academic achievement is one of the most widely researched topics in educational psychology. A large body of this research has considered cross-lagged panel models (CLPMs), oftentimes synonymously referred to as reciprocal effects models (REMs), as a gold standard to investigate the causal relations between the two variables and has reported evidence for a reciprocal relationship between self-concept and achievement. However, more recent methodological research questioned the plausibility of assumptions that need to be satisfied in order to interpret results from traditional CLPMs causally. In this substantive-methodological synergy, we aimed at contrasting traditional and more recently developed methods to investigate reciprocal effects of students’ academic self-concept and achievement. Specifically, we compared results from CLPMs, from full forward CLPMs (FF-CLPMs), and from random intercept CLPMs (RI-CLPMs) with two weighting approaches developed to study causal effects of continuous treatment variables. To estimate these different models, we used rich longitudinal data of N = 3,757 students from lower secondary schools in Germany. Results from CLPMs, FF-CLPMs, and weighting methods support the reciprocal effects model, particularly when considering math self-concept and grades. In contrast, results from the RI-CLPMs were less consistent. Implications from our study for the interpretation of effects from the different models and methods as well as for school motivation theory are discussed.

The Temporal Relationship Between Self-Acceptance and Generativity over Two Decades

Generativity is defined as a concern for the well-being of future generations, which involves both caring and a will to extend the self into the future. Extant research indicates that generativity plays an important role in successful aging. The present study sought to examine the temporal relationship between self-acceptance and generativity over about 2 decades. The data were drawn from the three waves of the Midlife in the United States (MIDUS) project, collected with intervals of about 10 years ( N = 4,167). The random-intercept cross-lagged panel model was used for data analysis. It was found that self-acceptance prospectively predicted generativity, whereas generativity did not predict self-acceptance. Thus, coming to terms with various aspects of one’s personality and past life contributes to higher future levels of generativity.

Can Conspiracy Beliefs Be Beneficial? Longitudinal Linkages Between Conspiracy Beliefs, Anxiety, Uncertainty Aversion, and Existential Threat

Research suggests that conspiracy beliefs are adopted because they promise to reduce anxiety, uncertainty, and threat. However, little research has investigated whether conspiracy beliefs actually fulfill these promises. We conducted two longitudinal studies ( NStudy 1 = 405, NStudy 2 = 1,012) to examine how conspiracy beliefs result from, and in turn influence, anxiety, uncertainty aversion, and existential threat. Random intercept cross-lagged panel analyses indicate that people who were, on average, more anxious, uncertainty averse, and existentially threatened held stronger conspiracy beliefs. Increases in conspiracy beliefs were either unrelated to changes in anxiety, uncertainty aversion, and existential threat (Study 2), or even predicted increases in these variables (Study 1). In both studies, increases in conspiracy beliefs predicted subsequent increases in conspiracy beliefs, suggesting a self-reinforcing circle. We conclude that conspiracy beliefs likely do not have beneficial consequences, but may even reinforce the negative experience of anxiety, uncertainty aversion, and existential threat.

Neonatal and Postneonatal Death Clustering Among Siblings in Bangladesh: Evidence from Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2017–2018

Despite knowledge of neonatal and postneonatal mortality determinants in Bangladesh, some families continue to lose a larger share of children, a phenomenon known as early-life mortality clustering. This study uses the random intercept Weibull survival regression model to explore the correlation of mortality risk among siblings at the family (or, mother) and community levels. Utilizing the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2017–2018, we found evidence of death scarring, where children whose previous sibling was not alive at the time of conception had significantly higher odds of neonatal mortality. Moreover, the neonatal (and postneonatal) mortality hazard was highest for children with a birth interval of fewer than 19 months, corresponding to the preceding sibling. The intraclass correlation coefficient's statistically significant values show that neonatal and postneonatal mortality risk is correlated among children of the same family and community. The findings suggest focusing on high-risk families and communities to reduce the mortality level effectively.

Reciprocal Relationships Between Subjective Age and Retirement Intentions

Organizational researchers and practitioners have become increasingly interested in how subjective age—employees’ perceived age—is related to important work and career outcomes. However, the direction of the relationship between employees’ subjective age and retirement intentions remains unclear, thus preventing theoretical advances and effective interventions to potentially delay retirement. We contribute to the literature on work and aging by investigating the relationship between subjective age and retirement intentions longitudinally, using a sample of n = 337 workers who participated in a study with six measurement waves across 15 months. Results of a random intercept cross-lagged panel model show unique between-person and within-person relationships linking subjective age and retirement intentions. As expected, we found a positive relationship between subjective age and retirement intentions at the between-person level of analysis. At the within-person level of analysis, results suggest that retirement intentions positively predicted subjective age, but not vice versa. Overall, these findings contribute to a better understanding of the role of subjective age in the context of work and retirement.

Harsh parental discipline and offspring emotional and behavioural problems: Comparing findings from the random-intercept cross-lagged panel model and the monozygotic twin difference design

Objective. To elucidate associations between parental harsh discipline and child emotional and behavioural problems in monozygotic twins aged 9, 12 and 16 and to compare distinct approaches to causal inference.Method. Child reports of 5,698 identical twins from the Twins Early Development Study (TEDS) were analysed. We tested three types of longitudinal structural equation models: a cross-lagged panel model (CLPM), a random intercept CLPM (RI-CLPM) and a monozygotic twin difference version of the CLPM (MZD-CLPM). Results. Given the study aim to infer causation, interpretation of models focussed primarily on the magnitude and significance of cross-lagged associations. Behavioural problems resulted in harsher parental discipline across all models. In the CLPM, we found bidirectional effects between parental discipline behavioural problems at age 9 and 12. Point estimates of all other associations between parental harsh discipline and child emotional and behavioural problems were in the same direction but magnitude varied across models. In the MZD-CLPM, twin differences in harsh parental discipline at 9 predicted twin differences in emotional problems at 12. In the RI-CLPM, emotional problems at 12 predicted a reduction in harsh parental discipline at 16 within person. Conclusions. Findings can be interpreted as corroborating (but not definite) evidence in favour of a causal effect of child behavioural problems on later experienced harsh parental discipline. Yet, in light of the triangulated methods, results also illustrate divergence in the MZD-CLPM and RI-CLPM outcomes, and underline the importance of a well-defined research question, careful model selection and refining causal conclusions on within-person processes.

Historical redlining and cardiovascular health: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

We investigated historical redlining, a government-sanctioned discriminatory policy, in relation to cardiovascular health (CVH) and whether associations were modified by present-day neighborhood physical and social environments. Data included 4,779 participants (mean age 62 y; SD = 10) from the baseline sample of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA; 2000 to 2002). Ideal CVH was a summary measure of ideal levels of seven CVH risk factors based on established criteria (blood pressure, fasting glucose, cholesterol, body mass index, diet, physical activity, and smoking). We assigned MESA participants’ neighborhoods to one of four grades (A: best, B: still desirable, C: declining, and D: hazardous) using the 1930s federal Home Owners’ Loan Corporation (HOLC) maps, which guided decisions regarding mortgage financing. Two-level hierarchical linear and logistic models, with a random intercept to account for participants nested within neighborhoods (i.e., census tracts) were used to assess associations within racial/ethnic subgroups (non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, and non-Hispanic Chinese). We found that Black adults who lived in historically redlined areas had a 0.82 (95% CI −1.54, −0.10) lower CVH score compared to those residing in grade A (best) neighborhoods, in a given neighborhood and adjusting for confounders. We also found that as the current neighborhood social environment improved the association between HOLC score and ideal CVH weakened (P < 0.10). There were no associations between HOLC grade and CVH measures or effect modification by current neighborhood conditions for any other racial/ethnic group. Results suggest that historical redlining has an enduring impact on cardiovascular risk among Black adults in the United States.

The Longitudinal Interplay Between Social Network and Psychopathology in Multi-Problem Young Adult Men; Separating Within-and Between-Person Effects

Young adulthood is characterized by many life changes. Especially for young men with problems across different life domains (i.e., multi-problem), these changes may entail obstacles. Incidences of psychopathology increase during young adulthood and at the same time important shifts in social networks – such as changing relations with peers and parents, isolation, or deviant peer affiliation – take place. The present study examined the longitudinal interplay between psychopathology and social network characteristics over the course of 1 year in multi-problem young adults, at both between-person and within-person level. A sample of 696 multi-problem young adult men (age 18–27) participated in this three wave study. We used traditional cross-lagged panel models (CLPM) to examine how social network characteristics and psychopathology are related at the between-person level, and random intercept cross-lagged panel models (RI-CLPM) to examine within-person links. Between-person associations between internalizing problems and social networks were bidirectional, and externalizing problems were related to problematic social network characteristics, but not vice versa. At the within-person level, no such cross-lagged paths were found. Overall, results indicated that in multi-problem young adults, social network characteristics and psychopathology are related. However, looking at within-person processes this relation is not reciprocal.