How reliable are self-reported estimates of birth registration completeness? Comparison with vital statistics systems

Background The widely-used estimates of completeness of birth registration collected by Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) and published by UNICEF primarily rely on registration status of children as reported by respondents. However, these self-reported estimates may be inaccurate when compared with completeness as assessed from nationally-reported official birth registration statistics, for several reasons, including over-reporting of registration due to concern about penalties for non-registration. This study assesses the concordance of self-reported birth registration and certification completeness with completeness calculated from civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems data for 57 countries. Methods Self-reported estimates of birth registration and certification completeness, at ages less than five years and 12–23 months, were compiled and calculated from the UNICEF birth registration database, DHS and MICS. CRVS birth registration completeness was calculated as birth registrations reported by a national authority divided by estimates of live births published in the United Nations (UN) World Population Prospects or the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study. Summary measures of concordance were used to compare completeness estimates. Findings Birth registration completeness (based on ages less than five years) calculated from self-reported data is higher than that estimated from CRVS data in most of the 57 countries (31 countries according to UN estimated births, average six percentage points (p.p.) higher; 43 countries according to GBD, average eight p.p. higher). For countries with CRVS completeness less than 95%, self-reported completeness was higher in 26 of 28 countries, an average 13 p.p. and median 9–10 p.p. higher. Self-reported completeness is at least 30 p.p. higher than CRVS completeness in three countries. Self-reported birth certification completeness exhibits closer concordance with CRVS completeness. Similar results are found for self-reported completeness at 12–23 months. Conclusions These findings suggest that self-reported completeness figures over-estimate completeness when compared with CRVS data, especially at lower levels of completeness, partly due to over-reporting of registration by respondents. Estimates published by UNICEF should be viewed cautiously, especially given their wide usage.

Atypical neural topographies underpin dysfunctional pattern separation in temporal lobe epilepsy

Episodic memory is the ability to accurately remember events from our past. The process of pattern separation is hypothesized to underpin this ability and is defined as the ability to orthogonalize memory traces, to maximize the features that make them unique. Contemporary cognitive neuroscience suggests that pattern separation entails complex interactions between the hippocampus and the neocortex, where specific hippocampal subregions shape neural reinstatement in the neocortex. To test this hypothesis, the current work studied both healthy controls and patients with temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) who present with hippocampal structural anomalies. In all participants, we measured neural activity using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) while they retrieved memorized items compared to lure items which share features with the target. Behaviorally, TLE patients were less able to exclude lures than controls, and showed a reduction in pattern separation. To assess the hypothesized relationship between neural patterns in the hippocampus and the neocortex, we identified topographic gradients of intrinsic connectivity along neocortical and hippocampal subfield surfaces and identified the topographic profile of the neural activity accompanying pattern separation. In healthy controls, pattern separation followed a graded pattern of neural activity, both along the hippocampal long axis (and peaked in anterior segments that are more heavily engaged in transmodal processing) and along the neocortical hierarchy running from unimodal to transmodal regions (peaking in transmodal default mode regions). In TLE patients, however, this concordance between task-based functional activations and topographic gradients was markedly reduced. Furthermore, person specific measures of concordance between task-related activity and connectivity gradients in patients and controls related to inter-individual differences in behavioral measures of pattern separation and episodic memory, highlighting the functional relevance of the observed topographic motifs. Our work is consistent with an emerging understanding that successful discrimination between memories with similar features entails a shift in the locus of neural activity away from sensory systems, a pattern that is mirrored along the hippocampal long axis and with respect to neocortical hierarchies. More broadly, our study establishes topographic profiling using intrinsic connectivity gradients captures the functional underpinnings of episodic memory processes in manner that is sensitive to their reorganization in pathology.

Expert Agreement in Prior Elicitation and its Effects on Bayesian Inference

Bayesian inference requires the specification of prior distributions that quantify the pre-data uncertainty about parameter values. One way to specify prior distributions is through prior elicitation, an interview method guiding field experts through the process of expressing their knowledge in the form of a probability distribution. However, prior distributions elicited from experts can be subject to idiosyncrasies of experts and elicitation procedures, raising the spectre of subjectivity and prejudice. Here, we investigate the effect of interpersonal variation in elicited prior distributions on the Bayes factor hypothesis test. We elicited prior distributions from six academic experts with a background in different fields of psychology and applied the elicited prior distributions as well as commonly used default priors in a re-analysis of 1710 studies in psychology. The degree to which the Bayes factors vary as a function of the different prior distributions is quantified by three measures of concordance of evidence: We assess whether the prior distributions change the Bayes factor direction, whether they cause a switch in the category of evidence strength, and how much influence they have on the value of the Bayes factor. Our results show that although the Bayes factor is sensitive to changes in the prior distribution, these changes rarely affect the qualitative conclusions of a hypothesis test. We hope that these results help researchers gauge the influence of interpersonal variation in elicited prior distributions in future psychological studies. Additionally, our sensitivity analyses can be used as a template for Bayesian robustness analyses that involves prior elicitation from multiple experts.

Discrepancies in Financial Self-Disclosures and Open Payments Reporting Among Authors of Clinical Oncology Research Studies

PURPOSE Company-reported payments from the Open Payments database (OP) have been compared with self-disclosed financial relationships made by physician authors. Discrepancies have been viewed as under-reporting of financial relationships. Our goal was to perform a systematic comparison to determine sources of discordance between company-reported and self-reported financial relationships. METHODS Financial disclosures reported by 163 authors and presenters who published in Journal of Clinical Oncology or who presented an abstract at the ASCO 2018 Annual Meeting were obtained and matched to payment data in OP. Categories included ownership, research, consulting/services, honoraria, expenses, royalty/patent/intellectual property, and other disclosures. Measures of concordance and discordance were calculated on the basis of matches on both company and category of disclosure and matches on company. Results are reported overall and within certain categories of disclosures. RESULTS Overall concordance between disclosures to ASCO and payments in OP was 16% for company and category matching and 24% for matching on the basis of company only. Authors tended to report more disclosures for research and consulting to ASCO than appear in OP. Expense disclosures were more frequently reported in OP than to ASCO. No payments were categorized as ownership in OP, but 35 authors/presenters disclosed ownership (including stock) to ASCO. CONCLUSION Our results reveal substantial discordance between self-reported and company-reported financial relationships for authors who report clinical oncology research. These findings support the calls for development of standardized disclosure policies across medicine.

INFLUENCE SOCIAL-LABOUR RELATIONS ON QUALITY LIFE POPULATION IN UNITED TERRITORIAL COMMUNITIES

Introduction. Social-labour problems in Ukraine, that a but upon the questions of national safety, predetermine cardinal changes in social-labour relations, that must assist in crease of quality life of population. Goal is to determine the directions of reforming social and labor relations within the framework of interaction between public authorities and local governments, united territorial communities to improve the quality and standard of living of the population. Results. Investigational, that the aim of adjusting of social-labour relations in СTС (corporated territorial communities) is providing of development of social-labour relations in society in the legal field and in direction of up grading life of population and basic tasks are distinguished. It is well-proven that a necessity is forming of the newest mechanisms of adjusting of social-labour relations in the in corporated territorial communities adapted under Ukrainian realities and solvent in case of their introduction to provide effective activity of organs local self-government in direction of not only adjusting of social labour relations in communities but also them steady development. Measures are distinguished in relation to the increase of level of profits from labour activity in CTC. The articles of social-labour relations are certain at the level of territorial communities. Reasonably, that at the level of territorial communities, influence of social-labour relations shows up in creation of stimuli and terms of development of social-labour relations at local level, adjusting of relations between the local subjects of social-labour sphere. Conclusions. Investigational, that creation economically of effective work places communities is basis of development of social-labour relations and employment, as they give an opportunity to develop creative potential of the hired worker, promote the level of his qualification, wage rate, and, thus, to improve quality life of capable of working population of communities. The measures of concordance of general interests of society, hired workers and employers, for the increase of efficiency of their activity and quality of life of population.

On Minimal Copulas under the Concordance Order

In the present paper, we study extreme negative dependence focussing on the concordance order for copulas. With the absence of a least element for dimensions $$d\ge 3$$d≥3, the set of all minimal elements in the collection of all copulas turns out to be a natural and quite important extreme negative dependence concept. We investigate several sufficient conditions, and we provide a necessary condition for a copula to be minimal. The sufficient conditions are related to the extreme negative dependence concept of d-countermonotonicity and the necessary condition is related to the collection of all copulas minimizing multivariate Kendall’s tau. The concept of minimal copulas has already been proved to be useful in various continuous and concordance order preserving optimization problems including variance minimization and the detection of lower bounds for certain measures of concordance. We substantiate this key role of minimal copulas by showing that every continuous and concordance order preserving functional on copulas is minimized by some minimal copula, and, in the case the continuous functional is even strictly concordance order preserving, it is minimized by minimal copulas only. Applying the above results, we may conclude that every minimizer of Spearman’s rho is also a minimizer of Kendall’s tau.

COMPATIBILITY AND ATTAINABILITY OF MATRICES OF CORRELATION-BASED MEASURES OF CONCORDANCE

Measures of concordance have been widely used in insurance and risk management to summarize nonlinear dependence among risks modeled by random variables, which Pearson’s correlation coefficient cannot capture. However, popular measures of concordance, such as Spearman’s rho and Blomqvist’s beta, appear as classical correlations of transformed random variables. We characterize a whole class of such concordance measures arising from correlations of transformed random variables, which includes Spearman’s rho, Blomqvist’s beta and van der Waerden’s coefficient as special cases. Compatibility and attainability of square matrices with entries given by such measures are studied—that is, whether a given square matrix of such measures of concordance can be realized for some random vector and how such a random vector can be constructed. Compatibility and attainability of block matrices and hierarchical matrices are also studied due to their practical importance in insurance and risk management. In particular, a subclass of attainable block Spearman’s rho matrices is proposed to compensate for the drawback that Spearman’s rho matrices are in general not attainable for dimensions larger than three. Another result concerns a novel analytical form of the Cholesky factor of block matrices which allows one, for example, to construct random vectors with given block matrices of van der Waerden’s coefficient.