scholarly journals Using Synthetic Adjustments and Controlling to Improve County Population Forecasts from the Hamilton–Perry Method

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeff Tayman ◽  
David A. Swanson ◽  
Jack Baker
Keyword(s):  
Total Population ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Population Forecast ◽  
Population Forecasts ◽  
County Population ◽  
And Gender ◽  
Cohort Change

AbstractTayman and Swanson (J Popul Res 34(3):209–231, 2017) found in Washington State counties that a forecast based on the Hamilton–Perry method using a synthetic adjustment (SYN) of cohort change ratios and child-woman ratios had greater accuracy and less bias compared to forecasts holding these ratios constant (CONST). In this paper, we assess the robustness of SYN’s efficacy by evaluating forecast accuracy, bias, and distributional error across age groups in counties nationwide. We also investigate whether forecast errors and their patterns change for SYN and CONST if forecasts by age and gender are adjusted to an independent total population forecast for each county. Our main findings are as follows: (1) SYN lowers forecast error compared to CONST whether the forecasts are controlled or not; (2) controlling also leads to the improvements in forecast error, often exceeding those in SYN; and (3) using SYN and controlling together has the greatest effect in reducing forecast error. These findings remain after controlling for population size and growth rate, but the positive impacts on forecast error of SYN and controlling are most evident in counties with less than 30,000 population and that grow by 15% or more.

scholarly journals Demographic future of Serbia from a different angle

Stanovnistvo ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 51 (2) ◽  
pp. 53-81
Author(s):  
Vladimir Nikitovic
Keyword(s):  
Total Population ◽  
Low Fertility ◽  
World Population ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Evaluation Tool ◽  
Demographic Trends ◽  
Population Forecast ◽  
The Past ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth ◽  
Population Forecasts

Based on the assessment of the empirical errors in the official population forecasts of Serbia, the paper shows why forecast users might want a change of the current official concept. The article consists of three parts. The first gives a brief chronological overview of the methods and hypotheses in the official population forecasts of Serbia during the last 60 years. The second refers to the quantification of the past forecast errors in projecting total fertility rate, life expectancy at birth and total population aiming at assessment of the empirical variability. The third part shows the probabilistic population forecast of Serbia based on Bayesian hierarchical models of vital components, as implemented in the 2012 revision of United Nations World population prospects. The empirical error served as an evaluation tool of the probabilistic distributions of total population. In spite of the increased availability and quality of input data and developing of advanced projection techniques during the period, there was no obvious improvement noted neither in accuracy nor in the expression of the uncertainty inherent to forecasting in the official population forecasts in Serbia up to date. In general, fertility has been overestimated while improvements in mortality have been underestimated. It has been shown that accuracy largely depends on the stability of demographic processes throughout the projection horizon, which confirms findings from similar studies in other countries. The uncertainty in the demographic trends remains a major challenge for forecasters. A typical judgment that the smallest error will be made if a recently observed trend is assumed to continue has been linked to the low fertility variant in the past Serbian forecasts. The target level of the medium fertility, interpreted as "most likely" outcome, was firmly bound to replacement fertility until recently thus reflecting desirable rather than realistic future. Therefore, the reversal in the trend of the total population of Serbia came as a surprise or much earlier than expected for the forecasters. The probabilistic population forecast of Serbia provides results that users can clearly understand and use along with attached information on error magnitude. Before running the projection model, it was necessary to adjust the 2012 UN estimates for Serbia to suit the current official estimates and recent relevant studies on demographic trends in the country. The comparison of probabilistic hypotheses and results with the current official projection aims to highlight the key benefits of the new approach in terms of reduced subjectivity, improved accuracy and quantified uncertainty. The latter could be particularly relevant for decision makers allowing them to calculate the expected costs involved in wrong decisions. From the perspective of the forecast based on "UN model", the strong optimism of the current official projection appears to be groundless. Besides, the empiric evaluation of the probabilistic distributions of total population suggests that it fully reflects the pattern of observed uncertainty in the past forecasts of Serbian population.

scholarly journals Forecast Accuracy and Uncertainty of Australian Bureau of Statistics State and Territory Population Projections

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom Wilson
Keyword(s):  
Total Population ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Temporal Stability ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Australian Bureau ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Specific Population ◽  
Empirical Prediction ◽  
Australian Bureau Of Statistics ◽  
Do So

Errors from past rounds of population projections can provide both diagnostic information to improve future projections as well as information for users on the likely uncertainty of current projections. This paper assesses the forecast accuracy of official Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) population projections for the states and territories of Australia and is the first major study to do so. For the states and territories, it is found that, after 10-year projection durations, absolute percentage errors lie between about 1% and 3% for the states and around 6% for the territories. Age-specific population projections are also assessed. It is shown that net interstate migration and net overseas migration are the demographic components of change which contributed most to forecast error. The paper also compares ABS projections of total population against simple linear extrapolation, finding that, overall, ABS projections just outperformed extrapolation. No identifiable trend in accuracy over time is detected. Under the assumption of temporal stability in the magnitude of error, empirical prediction intervals are created from past errors and applied to the current set of ABS projections. The paper concludes with a few ideas for future projection rounds.

Absolute Forecast Errors of Earnings in Malaysian IPO Prospectuses: The Impact of Ethnic Diversity

2014 ◽  
Vol 68 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammed Abdullah Ammer ◽  
Nurwati A. Ahmad-Zaluki
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Diversity ◽  
Boards Of Directors ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Audit Committees ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
The Impact

The main focus of this paper is the earnings forecast, a vital information included in IPO prospectus. Specifically, our paper examined the impact of ethnic diversity groups on the boards of directors and audit committees in terms of earnings forecast accuracy. We are motivated by the lack of prior studies related to investigating IPO earnings forecast. Cross-sectional Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) modeling was conducted on 190 Malaysian IPOs from 2002 to 2012. For the evaluation of earnings forecast accuracy, we mathematically used the metric of Absolute Forecast Error (AFER). Moreover, for the test of robustness, we used the metric of Squared Forecast Error (SQFER) as error measurement, as it mostly deals with large errors. The empirical results indicate that the ethnic diversity groups on boards and audit committees have an impact on the accuracy of earnings forecasts. However, the evidence is significant for Chinese and Malay serving on boards but insignificant in terms of Chinese and Malay serving on audit committee. The findings indicate that multi-ethnic groups in Malaysian IPO companies could hinder the capability of IPO companies to achieve accurate earnings forecasts in their prospectuses.

scholarly journals Does Auditor Industry Specialization Increase Analysts’ Forecast Accuracy? Evidence from the Listed Firms of Australia

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 46
Author(s):  
Aditi Shams
Keyword(s):  
Audit Quality ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Earnings Forecast ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Forecast Dispersion ◽  
Industry Specialization ◽  
Listed Firms ◽  
Auditor Industry Specialization

This paper examines the relation between auditor industry specialization and analysts’ beginning-of-the-year earnings forecast accuracy. It predicts that the higher industry specialization of the auditors will improve the quality of external financial reports and thus mitigates the analysts’ forecast error. It also predicts that higher audit quality will have a negative association with analyst forecast dispersion. The empirical test results on Australian listed firms from the year 2003 to 2012 does not find evidence of association between audit firm industry specialization and analysts’ beginning-of the year earnings forecast error. However, firms with higher analysts forecast error is associated with lower forecast dispersion among analysts, which is consistent with the prediction that analysts are consistent with predicting future earnings and analysts possess similar traits in terms of difference with the actual earnings. Additional analysis also finds that’s larger firms have less forecast errors compared to smaller firms. The findings contribute to the growing literature on auditing and financial reporting quality in Australian context.

scholarly journals PROFILE OF USERS OF AMBULATORY AND HOSPITAL SERVICES

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 70-79
Author(s):  
FlávioAlberto Oliva ◽  
Maria Lúcia Ribeiro ◽  
Marina Armelin Silva ◽  
Marjori Leiva Camparoto ◽  
Telma Reginato Martins
Keyword(s):  
Public Hospital ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Social Inequalities ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Primary Source ◽  
Male Population ◽  
Age And Gender ◽  
The Public ◽  
Gender And Age ◽  
And Gender

The goal of this study was to understand the gender and age profile of the users of ambulatory services at public hospital. Gender and age are fundamental elements for the construction of public policies at local and regional level. We performed a 3-year retrospective data collection, regarding age and gender of the population of the outpatient clinic of the public hospital between 2013 and 2015. It is a research with quantitative approach performed through three databases from january 2013 to December 2015 totaling 460.505 consultations. The database of the public hospital was adopted as the primary source, it was also consulted the database of the last two censuses of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and the database of the Regional Health Division. The cross-checking of data, through Microsoft Excel and the Online Analytical Processing (OLAP) software, allowed the construction of a graph structured by gender and age according to the standards defined by IBGE on 2010, as well as the comparison between age and gender profile of the total population attended by public hospital and its consultations. The female audience represents 60.5% of the attendances, while the male population accounts for 39.5%. Only in the age groups between 0 and 14 and 85 to 89 years the male audience is larger. The difference in care is accentuated in the middle of the pyramid, in the ranges between 30 and 69 years, during which time women are responsible for 65.5% of the attendances against 34.5% of men. Such gender proportional differences are maintained on the total population, the only significant variation is on the age group from 80 and older where although there is a female majority of users, there is also a larger female majority on the population. Studies show that women make more references to health problems than men, as these represent, according to the male imagination, virility and strength, not representing vulnerability to the disease. Men do not recognize themselves as targets of health care and they are less likely to seek health services for cultural reasons, mainly, opening space for discussion about social inequalities in health between men and women.

scholarly journals Do analysts understand accruals’ persistence? Evidence revisited

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-59
Author(s):  
Ivana Raonic ◽  
Ali Sahin
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Error ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Future Earnings ◽  
Money Managers

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to revisit the question of whether analysts anticipate accruals’ predicted reversals (or persistence) of future earnings. Prior evidence documents that analysts who provide information to investors are over optimistic about firms with high working capital (WC) accruals. The authors propose that empirical models using WC accruals alone may be incomplete and hence not entirely appropriate to assess the level of analysts’ understanding of accruals. The authors argue that analysts’ optimism about WC accruals might not be due to their lack of sophistication, but rather driven by incomplete accrual information embedded in forecast accuracy tests. Design/methodology/approach The authors use non-financial US firms for the period between 1976 and 2013. The authors define earnings forecast errors as the analysts’ consensus earnings forecasts minus the actual earnings provided by IBES deflated by share price from CRSP. The authors carry out forecast error regressions on individual accrual components by decomposing total accruals into categories. The authors perform the tests across 12 months starting from the initial analysts’ forecasts, which are generally issued in the first month after the prior period earnings announcement date. The final sample contains 48,142 firm–year observations per month. Findings The empirical tests show no correlation between analysts’ forecast errors and revised total accruals. The findings are robust to different samples, periods, model specifications, decile ranked accruals, high accruals, absolute forecast errors, controlling for cash flows (CF) and high accounting conservatism. The findings imply that if analysts are to achieve more accurate forecasts, they should be considering all rather than some accrual components. The authors interpret this evidence as an indication of analysts’ relative sophistication with respect to accruals. Research limitations/implications The authors recognise that analysts’ correct anticipation of accruals’ persistence does not mean that their earnings forecasts are entirely free of bias. Analysts can make forecast errors for various reasons including strategic biases. For instance, the tests show pessimistic forecast errors with respect to CF, which is in line with similar findings in prior research (Drake and Myers, 2011). Hence, the authors suggest that future research examine this correlation in greater depth as CF components are with the highest level of persistence, and hence should be predicted most accurately. Practical implications The results imply that the argument about analysts’ lack of sophistication with respect to accruals’ persistence is not warranted. The results imply that forecasts appear to contribute to market efficiency. Another implication is that analysts seem to utilise all relevant accrual information in their forecasts, hence traditional accrual definition should be revised in future studies. Key inferences of the paper imply that the growing use of analysts’ reports by institutional investors and money managers in their decision-making processes is justified despite the debate in the prior literature on the role and the reputation of analysts as surrogates of market expectations. Originality/value The research sheds a new light on the question whether sell-side security analysts are able to anticipate the persistence of accruals in future earnings.

An Empirical Analysis of Forecast Performance of the GDP Growth in India

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 368-386 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monika Gupta ◽  
Mohammad Haris Minai
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Error ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Rules Of Thumb ◽  
Actual Outcome ◽  
High Degree

This article evaluates the accuracy of a forecast based on the properties of the forecast error. To measure how close the predictions of GDP growth are to the actual outcome in India, we have calculated three measures of forecast accuracy: mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and Theil’s U statistic. To evaluate the performance of the forecasts, we have compared them with naive forecast and common rules of thumb, using moving averages (MAs) as rules of thumb. The results are inconclusive regarding biasedness and also inefficient. Further, the forecasts have a high degree of correlation among themselves. The findings of forecast errors suggest that the performance of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) forecasts is favourable compared to other organizations, as well as with respect to the general international standard.

The accuracy of management profit forecasts in IPO prospectuses

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tanweer Hasan ◽  
Muliaman Hadad ◽  
Kamran Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Initial Public Offerings ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Forecast Horizon ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Explanatory Variables

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to measure the accuracy of management profit forecast in initial public offerings (IPO) prospectuses and investigate the determinants of any observed forecast error in Indonesia. Design/methodology/approach – A sample of 105 Indonesian IPO firms over a ten-year period, 1999-2008, is used in the present study. The accuracy of management profit forecasts, or forecast errors, in IPO prospectuses is calculated, following Lee et al. (2006), over the ten-year sample period. Then, a multivariate model, following the extant literature, is used to identify the determinants of any observed forecast error in Indonesia. Findings – A mean (median) forecast error of 19 percent (9 percent) is reported over the entire sample period. Multivariate analysis shows that, among the explanatory variables used in the present study, forecast horizon and management optimism seem to be the most significant determinants of forecast error in Indonesia. Research limitations/implications – The ordinary, specifically small, investors in Indonesia lack the sophistication needed to evaluate new issues while alternative independent sources of information or analysis on IPOs are virtually non-existent. Consequently, whether the forecasts made by the managers during IPOs are reliable or not is of particular importance in Indonesia. Originality/value – Indonesia is a significant emerging market in Asia. However, to date, no published work has examined the accuracy of management profit forecasts or forecast errors in this market. The present study attempts to fill this gap in the literature and is the first to capture the magnitude/degree of forecast accuracy or error and investigate the determinants of the documented forecast error in Indonesia using a sample of 105 IPO firms over the period 1999 through 2008.

Personality's Correlates of Adult Development and Aging

2003 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 131-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gian Vittorio Caprara ◽  
Mariagiovanna Caprara ◽  
Patrizia Steca
Keyword(s):  
Personality Traits ◽  
Adult Development ◽  
Self Efficacy ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Efficacy Beliefs ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Education And Health ◽  
Development And Aging ◽  
And Gender

Three cross-sectional studies examined stability and change in personality over the course of life by measuring the relations linking age to personality traits, self-efficacy beliefs, values, and well-being in large samples of Italian male and female participants. In each study, relations between personality and age were examined across several age groups ranging from young adulthood to old age. In each study, personality constructs were first examined in terms of mean group differences accrued by age and gender and then in terms of their correlations with age across gender and age groups. Furthermore, personality-age correlations were also calculated, controlling for the demographic effects accrued by marital status, education, and health. Findings strongly indicated that personality functioning does not necessarily decline in the later years of life, and that decline is more pronounced in males than it is in females across several personality dimensions ranging from personality traits, such as emotional stability, to self-efficacy beliefs, such as efficacy in dealing with negative affect. Findings are discussed in terms of their implications for personality theory and social policy.

Projected future risk of leukemia and brain tumors from unnecessary brain CT scans: a multi-center study in Iran

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Asgari ◽  
A.A. Parach ◽  
F. Bouzarjomehri ◽  
F. Shirani-Takabi ◽  
A.H. Mehrparvar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Brain Cancer ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Young Patients ◽  
Ct Scans ◽  
Brain Ct ◽  
Males And Females ◽  
And Gender ◽  
Multi Center Study ◽  
Gender Groups ◽  
Probability Of Cancer

Introduction: Computer Tomography (CT) scans can deliver a relatively high radiation dose to the patient, therefore radiation protection for this modality is paramount. The present study determined the frequency of no abnormality detected (NAD) brain CT scans and probability of cancer induction in different age groups and genders. Methods: In this study, brain CT reports were used to identify any findings as abnormality detected (AD) and others as NAD. Then probability of future leukemia and brain cancer was estimated for different age and gender groups. Results: On average, in 65% of the cases the results were NAD (56% and 76% among males and females, respectively). Among children, 79% of the reports were NAD. The total number of projected brain cancers was 1.8 and 1.3 for males and females, respectively. The number of projected leukemia cases was 0.75 and 0.7 for males and females, respectively. For pediatric patients, brain CT scans can lead to leukemia cases about 4.5 times more often than adults. Conclusion: Brain CT scans can lead to additional cases of brain cancer and leukemia. A significant fraction of brain CTs were NAD (non-pathologic) and could practically be replaced by other radiation-free imaging modalities, especially in pediatric and young patients.

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