High-resolution modelling of atmospheric dispersion of dense gas using TWODEE-2.1: application to the 1986 Lake Nyos limnic eruption

Atmospheric dispersal of a gas denser than air can threat the environment and surrounding communities if the terrain and meteorological conditions favour its accumulation in topographic depressions, thereby reaching toxic concentration levels. Numerical modelling of atmospheric gas dispersion constitutes a useful tool for gas hazard assessment studies, essential for planning risk mitigation actions. In complex terrains, microscale winds and local orographic features can have a strong influence on the gas cloud behaviour, potentially leading to inaccurate results if not captured by coarser-scale modelling. We introduce a methodology for microscale wind field characterisation based on transfer functions that couple a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model with a microscale computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model for the atmospheric boundary layer. The resulting time-dependent high-resolution microscale wind field is used as input for a shallow-layer gas dispersal model (TWODEE-2.1) to simulate the time evolution of CO2 gas concentration at different heights above the terrain. The strategy is applied to review simulations of the 1986 Lake Nyos event in Cameroon, where a huge CO2 cloud released by a limnic eruption spread downslopes from the lake, suffocating thousands of people and animals across the Nyos and adjacent secondary valleys. Besides several new features introduced in the new version of the gas dispersal code (TWODEE-2.1), we have also implemented a novel impact criterion based on the percentage of human fatalities depending on CO2 concentration and exposure time. New model results are quantitatively validated using the reported percentage of fatalities at several locations. The comparison with previous simulations that assumed coarser-scale steady winds and topography illustrates the importance of high-resolution modelling in complex terrains.

High-resolution modeling of atmospheric dispersion of dense gas using TWODEE-2.1: application to the 1986 Lake Nyos limnic eruption

Atmospheric dispersal of a gas denser than air can threat the environment and surrounding communities if the terrain and meteorological conditions favor its accumulation in topographic depressions, thereby reaching toxic concentration levels. Numerical modeling of atmospheric gas dispersion constitutes a useful tool for gas hazard assessment studies, essential for planning risk mitigation actions. In complex terrains, microscale winds and local orographic features can have a strong influence on the gas cloud behavior, potentially leading to inaccurate results if not captured by coarser-scale modeling. We introduce a methodology for microscale wind field characterization based on transfer functions that couple a mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Model with a microscale Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model for the atmospheric boundary layer. The resulting time-dependent high-resolution microscale wind field is used as input for a shallow-layer gas dispersal model (TWODEE-2.1) to simulate the time evolution of CO2 gas concentration at different heights above the terrain. The strategy is applied to review simulations of the 1986 Lake Nyos event in Cameroon, where a huge CO2 cloud released by a limnic eruption spread downslopes from the lake suffocating thousands of people and animals across the Nyos and adjacent secondary valleys. Besides several new features introduced in the new version of the gas dispersal code (TWODEE-2.1), we have also implemented a novel impact criterion based on the percentage of human fatalities depending on CO2 concentration and exposure time. New model results are quantitatively validated using the reported percentage of fatalities at several locations. The comparison with previous simulations that assumed coarser-scale steady winds and topography illustrates the importance of high-resolution modeling in complex terrains.

Survey and assessment of post volcanic activities of a young caldera lake, Lake Cuicocha, Ecuador

Cuicocha is a young volcano adjacent to the inactive Pleistocene Cotacachi volcano complex, located in the western cordilleras of the Ecuadorian Andes. A series of eruptions with intensive ash emission and collapse of the caldera occurred around 4500–3000 y BP. A crater 3.2 km in diameter and a maximum depth of 450 m was formed. Further eruptions of the volcano occurred 1300 y BP and formed four smaller domes within the caldera. Over the last few hundred years, a caldera lake has developed, with a maximum depth of 148 m. The lake water is characterized by sodium carbonate with elevated concentrations of manganese, calcium and chloride. Nowadays, an emission of gases, mainly CO2, and an input of warm spring water occur in Lake Cuicocha. The zone of high activity is in the western basin of the lake at a depth of 78 m, and continuous gas emissions with sediment resuspension were observed using sonar. In the hypolimnion of the lake, CO2 accumulation occurs up to 0.2% saturation, but the risk of a limnic eruption can be excluded at present. The lake possesses monomictic stratification behaviour, and during overturn an intensive gas exchange with the atmosphere occurs. Investigations concerning the sedimentation processes of the lake suggest only a thin sediment layer of up to 10–20 cm in the deeper lake basin; in the western bay, in the area of gas emissions, the lake bottom is partly depleted of sediment in the form of holes, and no lake colmation exists. Decreases in the lake water level of about 30 cm y−1 indicate a percolation of water into fractures and fissures of the volcano, triggered by a nearby earthquake in 1987.

Hazards of volcanic lakes: analysis of Lakes Quilotoa and Cuicocha, Ecuador

Volcanic lakes within calderas should be viewed as high-risk systems, and an intensive lake monitoring must be carried out to evaluate the hazard of potential limnic or phreatic-magmatic eruptions. In Ecuador, two caldera lakes – Lakes Quilotoa and Cuicocha, located in the high Andean region >3000 a.s.l. – have been the focus of these investigations. Both volcanoes are geologically young or historically active, and have formed large and deep calderas with lakes of 2 to 3 km in diameter, and 248 and 148 m in depth, respectively. In both lakes, visible gas emissions of CO2 occur, and an accumulation of CO2 in the deep water body must be taken into account. Investigations were carried out to evaluate the hazards of these volcanic lakes, and in Lake Cuicocha intensive monitoring was carried out for the evaluation of possible renewed volcanic activities. At Lake Quilotoa, a limnic eruption and diffuse CO2 degassing at the lake surface are to be expected, while at Lake Cuicocha, an increased risk of a phreatic-magmatic eruption exists.