Supercell thunderstorm charge structure variability and influences on spatial lightning flash relationships with the updraft

Relationships between lightning flashes and thunderstorm kinematics and microphysics are important for applications such as nowcasting of convective intensity. These relationships are influenced by cloud electrification structures and have been shown to vary in anomalously electrified thunderstorms. This study addresses transitional relationships between active charge structure and lightning flash location in the context of kinematic and microphysical updraft characteristics during the development of an anomalously electrified supercell thunderstorm in the Tennessee Valley on 10 April 2009. The initial charge structure within the updraft was characterized as an anomalous dipole in which positive charge was inferred in regions of precipitation ice (i.e., graupel and hail) and negative charge was inferred in regions of cloud ice (i.e., aggregates and ice crystals). During subsequent development of the anomalous charge structure, additional minor charge layers as well as evidence of increasing horizontal complexity were observed. Microphysical and kinematic characteristics of the charge structure also evolved to include increasing observations of negative charge in precipitation ice regions, indicating the emergence of more prominent normal charging alongside dominant anomalous charging. Simultaneously, lightning flash initiation locations were also increasingly observed in regions of faster updrafts and stronger horizontal gradients in updraft speed. It is suggested that continuous variability in charging behavior over meso-gamma spatial scales influenced the evolution of lightning flash locations with respect to the updraft structure. Further work is necessary to determine how this variability may impact lightning flash relation-ships, including lightning flash rate, with bulk microphysical and kinematic characteristics and related applications.

The Synoptic Characteristics, Causes, and Mechanisms of Kahlaa Tornado in Iraq on 14th April 2016

In this study, an analysis of the synoptic characteristics, causes and mechanisms of Kahlaa tornado event was carried out. This tornado occurred on 10:30 UTC (1:30 pm Iraq Local Time) on 14 April 2016 to the north of Kahlaa town in Maysan governorate. We analyzed surface and upper charts, weather conditions, the damage indices, the dynamical features and the instability of the tornado. The analysis showed that there was a low pressure system which was an extension of the Monsoon low in addition to a supercell thunderstorm and a jet stream aloft. The cold trough and high relative vorticity at 500 hPa level, the humid warm wind blowing from the south and the dry cold wind from the north contributed to the initiation of the tornado. According to the damage amount, Kahlaa tornado can be classified as EF2 degree (considerable) on Enhanced Fujita scale. Three indices were calculated to estimate the instability of the tornado. The values of the convective available potential energy (CAPE), K-index, and lifted index were (≥2500 J/kg), (35.3 oC), and (-7), respectively. All these indices confirmed the instability required to form severe thunderstorm essential to tornado formation. Although the forecasting of tornadoes occurrence is difficult, there would be indications that may lead to expect of occurrence. These may include the availability of moisture, heat, and significant wind direction changes with altitude. However, the vital factors were the existence of high instability and a supercell thunderstorm.

ENTRAINMENT IN A SIMULATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM, PART I: THE EVOLUTION OF DIFFERENT ENTRAINMENT MECHANISMS AND THEIR DILUTIVE EFFECTS

The current study identifies and quantifies various mechanisms of entrainment, and their diluting effects, in the developing and mature stages of a simulated supercell thunderstorm. The two stages, differentiated by the lack or presence of a rotating updraft, are shown to entrain air by different, but related mechanisms that result from the strong vertical wind shear of the environment. The greatest entrainment rates in the developing stage result from the asymmetric overturning of large eddies near cloud top on the down-shear side. These rates are greater than those published in the literature for cumuli developing in environments lacking strong shear. Although the entrainment rate increases exponentially in time throughout the developing stage, successive cloud turrets help to replenish some of the lost buoyancy and condensate, allowing the nascent storm to develop further. During the mature stage, the greatest entrainment rates occur via “ribbons” of horizontal vorticity wrapping around the rotating updraft that ascend in time. The smaller width of the ribbons in comparison to the wider storm core limits their dilutive effects. Passive tracers placed in the low-level air ingested by the mature storm indicate that on average 20% of the core contains some undiluted air ingested from below the storm base, unaffected by any entrainment mechanism.

Thunderstorm Classification Functions Based on Instability Indices and GNSS IWV for the Sofia Plain

<p>Bulgaria is a country with a high frequency of hail and thunderstorms from May to September. For the May–September 2010–2015 period, statistical regression analysis was applied to identify predictors/classification functions that contribute skills to thunderstorm forecasting in the Sofia plain. The functions are based on (1) instability indices computed from radiosonde data from Sofia station F1, and (2) combination of instability indices and Integrated Water Vapor (IWV), derived from the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) station Sofia-Plana, F2. Analysis of the probability of detection and the false alarm ratio scores showed the superiority of the F2 classification function, with the best performance in May, followed by June and September. F1 and F2 scores were computed for independent data samples in the period 2017–2018 and confirmed the findings for the 2010–2015 period. Analysis of IWV and lightning flash rates for a multicell and supercell thunderstorm in June and July 2014 showed that the monthly IWV thresholds are reached 14.5 and 3.5 hours before the thunderstorm, respectively. The supercell IWV peak registered 40 min before the thunderstorm, followed by a local IWV minimum corresponding to a peak in the flash rate. In both cases, an increase of IWV during severe hail was registered, which is likely related to the hydrometeor contribution to GNSS path delay. The results of this study will be integrated into the Bulgarian Integrated NowCAsting tool for thunderstorm forecasting in the warm/convective season.</p>

Multiple-Platform and Multiple-Doppler Radar Observations of a Supercell Thunderstorm in South America during RELAMPAGO

On 10 November 2018, during the RELAMPAGO field campaign in Argentina, South America, a thunderstorm with supercell characteristics was observed by an array of mobile observing instruments, including three Doppler on Wheels radars. In contrast to the archetypal supercell described in the Glossary of Meteorology, the updraft rotation in this storm was rather short lived (~25 min), causing some initial doubt as to whether this indeed was a supercell. However, retrieved 3D winds from dual-Doppler radar scans were used to document a high spatial correspondence between midlevel vertical velocity and vertical vorticity in this storm, thus providing evidence to support the supercell categorization. Additional data collected within the RELAMPAGO domain revealed other storms with this behavior, which appears to be attributable in part to effects of the local terrain. Specifically, the IOP4 supercell and other short-duration supercell cases presented had storm motions that were nearly perpendicular to the long axis of the Sierras de Córdoba Mountains; a long-duration supercell case, on the other hand, had a storm motion nearly parallel to these mountains. Sounding observations as well as model simulations indicate that a mountain-perpendicular storm motion results in a relatively short storm residence time within the narrow zone of terrain-enhanced vertical wind shear. Such a motion and short residence time would limit the upward tilting, by the left-moving supercell updraft, of the storm-relative, antistreamwise horizontal vorticity associated with anabatic flow near complex terrain.

Thunderstorm Classification Functions Based on Instability Indices and GNSS IWV for the Sofia Plain

Bulgaria is a country with a high frequency of hail and thunderstorms from May to September. For the May–September 2010–2015 period, statistical regression analysis was applied to identify predictors/classification functions that contribute skills to thunderstorm forecasting in the Sofia plain. The functions are based on (1) instability indices computed from radiosonde data from Sofia station F1, and (2) combination of instability indices and Integrated Water Vapor (IWV), derived from the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) station Sofia-Plana, F2. Analysis of the probability of detection and the false alarm ratio scores showed the superiority of the F2 classification function, with the best performance in May, followed by June and September. F1 and F2 scores were computed for independent data samples in the period 2017–2018 and confirmed the findings for the 2010–2015 period. Analysis of IWV and lightning flash rates for a multicell and supercell thunderstorm in June and July 2014 showed that the monthly IWV thresholds are reached 14.5 and 3.5 hours before the thunderstorm, respectively. The supercell IWV peak registered 40 min before the thunderstorm, followed by a local IWV minimum corresponding to a peak in the flash rate. In both cases, an increase of IWV during severe hail was registered, which is likely related to the hydrometeor contribution to GNSS path delay. The results of this study will be integrated into the Bulgarian Integrated NowCAsting tool for thunderstorm forecasting in the warm/convective season.

Creating a More Realistic Idealized Supercell Thunderstorm Evolution via Incorporation of Base-State Environmental Variability

Convective environments are known to be heterogeneous in both time and space, yet idealized models use fixed base-state environments to simulate storm evolution. Recently, the base-state substitution (BSS) technique was devised to account for environmental variability in a controlled manner while maintaining horizontal homogeneity; BSS involves updating the background environment to reflect a new storm-relative proximity sounding at a prescribed time interval. The study herein sought to assess the ability of BSS to more realistically represent the structure and evolution of an observed supercell thunderstorm in comparison to simulations with fixed base-state environments. An extended dual-Doppler dataset of an intensifying supercell thunderstorm in a varying inflow environment was compared to idealized simulations of the same storm; simulations included those with fixed background environments, as well as a BSS simulation that incorporated environmental variability continuously via tendencies to the base-state variables based on changes in a series of observed soundings. While the simulated supercells were generally more intense than what was measured in the observations, broad trends in reflectivity, vertical velocity, and vertical vorticity were more similar between the observed and BSS-simulated supercell; with a fixed environment, the supercell either shrunk in size and weakened over time, or grew upscale into a larger convective system. Quantitative comparisons examining distributions, areas, and volumes of vertical velocity and vorticity further confirm these differences. Overall, BSS provides a more realistic result, supporting the idea that a series of proximity soundings can sufficiently represent the effects of environmental variability, enhancing accuracy over fixed environments.