Own-Party Bias: How Voters Evaluate Electoral Outcomes

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Martin Baekgaard
Keyword(s):  
Motivated Reasoning ◽  
Election Outcome ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Party Support ◽  
Objective Indicators

Abstract A voluminous literature documents that citizens' perceptions of democracy are shaped by electoral victories and defeats, but what reasoning do citizens use to evaluate parties as winners or losers? Drawing on research on partisan-motivated reasoning, I propose an own-party bias in winner–loser evaluations according to which voters evaluate the electoral fate of their party more favourably than that of other parties. Data gathered in the aftermath of the Danish parliamentary election in 2015 support this expectation. Citizens are more inclined to interpret the election outcome as successful for their preferred party, regardless of the actual election result. This is more pronounced the stronger their partisan attachment and among the less politically knowledgeable, who also assign less importance to objective indicators of electoral success. The findings have implications for our understanding of electoral winners and losers and of how electoral results shape party support and polarization.

Crossing the left-right party divide? Understanding the electoral success of the Czech Pirate Party in the 2017 parliamentary elections

Politics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
pp. 510-526 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pavel Maškarinec
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Spatial Perspective ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
The Right ◽  
Leftist Parties ◽  
Spatial Support

In the 2017 Czech parliamentary election, the Czech Pirate Party (Pirates) gained 10.79% of the votes – an unprecedented success, compared to most of the pirate parties across Europe. However, as their electoral gain varies widely across the Czech Republic’s territory, this article analyses all (more than 6000) Czech municipalities in the elections of 2010, 2013, and 2017 to explain this variation. Overall, the success of the Pirates was driven especially by obtaining much more support in larger municipalities with younger populations (although not only those aged 18–24 but also older ones), lower unemployment, higher turnout, and lower support for leftist parties. Thus, from a spatial perspective, the patterns of Pirate voting largely resembled long-term spatial support for Czech rightist parties and we can conclude that the Pirates made considerable inroads to regions which had historically been strongholds of the Civic Democratic Party, as the former main party of the right, but also strongholds of minor right-wing (‘liberal centre’) parties of the 1990s and early 2000s. Success of the Pirates thus was based especially on votes from municipalities located in more developed areas, where the Pirates received many more votes than in structurally disadvantaged regions.

scholarly journals Politician Family Networks and Electoral Outcomes: Evidence from the Philippines

2017 ◽  
Vol 107 (10) ◽  
pp. 3006-3037 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cesi Cruz ◽  
Julien Labonne ◽  
Pablo QuerubÍn
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Network Centrality ◽  
Family Network ◽  
Family Networks ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Large Scale Data ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Elite Status ◽  
Scale Data

We demonstrate the importance of politician social networks for electoral outcomes. Using large-scale data on family networks from over 20 million individuals in 15,000 villages in the Philippines, we show that candidates for public office are disproportionately drawn from more central families and family network centrality contributes to higher vote shares during the elections. Consistent with our theory of political intermediation, we present evidence that family network centrality facilitates relationships of political exchange. Moreover, we show that family networks exercise an effect independent of wealth, historical elite status, or previous electoral success. (JEL D72, D85, O17, Z13)

Impact of Candidate Selection Systems on Election Results: Evidence from Taiwan before and after the Change in Electoral Systems

2013 ◽  
Vol 213 ◽  
pp. 152-171 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dafydd Fell
Keyword(s):  
Party System ◽  
Electoral Systems ◽  
Candidate Selection ◽  
Campaign Strategies ◽  
Policy Positions ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Extensive Coverage ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Election Results

AbstractA central challenge for scholars of party politics is to explain parties' electoral success or failure. Campaign strategies, candidate personalities, electoral systems, parties' issue emphasis and policy positions all receive extensive coverage in the literature. One variable that has been neglected is the role of nomination systems in election results. This is surprising considering how politicians often blame candidate selection failures for disappointing electoral outcomes and then reform nomination mechanisms in the hope of improving future election prospects. In this study I examine the relationship between nomination systems and electoral results in Taiwan before and after the change in electoral systems. I show that candidate selection methods have played an important role in shaping Taiwan's party system under the old and new electoral systems.

scholarly journals The Effect of Municipality Size and Local Office on the Electoral Success of Belgian/Flemish Election Candidates: A Multilevel Analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 50 (4) ◽  
pp. 607-628 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gert-Jan Put ◽  
Bart Maddens
Keyword(s):  
Multilevel Analysis ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Relative Size ◽  
Relative Number ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Election Result ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Empirical Analysis ◽  
Positive Effect

This article examines the effect that municipality size and local office have on election candidates’ results. We argue that candidates from the larger municipalities have comparatively larger relevant networks, both in terms of constituents and party grassroots volunteers. In addition, these candidates appeal to a relatively larger share of voters within the constituency. We expect that the relative size of the candidates’ municipality will have a positive effect on the relative number of preferential votes they receive in the constituency and will interact with the effect that holding local office has on the individual election result. While the empirical analysis does not show support for the idea that municipality size will have a significant effect, the expected interaction between local office and municipality size is confirmed. The electoral advantage of being mayor, alderman or local councillor seems to increase with the relative size of the municipality in the district.

Mexico's PAN is failing to capitalise on PRI woes

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Election Outcome ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Institutional Revolutionary Party ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Vote Intention ◽  
Revolutionary Party ◽  
Historical Range ◽  
Voting Intentions

Significance A vote intention poll carried out by Buendia & Laredo and published on February 23 shows the conservative opposition National Action Party (PAN) well positioned ahead of the June 7 mid-term elections. The survey shows that support for the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) plummeted by 12 percentage points since its previous poll of November 2014 and is currently only four points above the PAN's vote intention levels, which increased by three points to reach 26%. Impacts PAN voting intentions fall within its historical range, showing its inability to capitalise on the loss of support for its main rivals. However, with many voters undecided, there is some scope for the PAN's support to grow as campaigning starts in April. The election outcome will have a significant impact on the balance of power between the party's main factions. Zavala's bid to contest the PAN's leadership in November will depend largely on the party's electoral success in June.

Sailing Along New Cleavages: Understanding the Electoral Success of the Swedish Pirate Party in the European Parliament Election 2009

2013 ◽  
Vol 49 (2) ◽  
pp. 188-206 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie Demker
Keyword(s):  
Information Society ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Individual Freedom ◽  
Personal Integrity ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
A Value ◽  
The World ◽  
Universal Human Rights ◽  
Usual Concept ◽  
Party Family

In the Swedish European Parliamentary Election in 2009 the Swedish Pirate Party took two seats in the parliament and 7.1 per cent of the Swedish voters’ support. The party was absolutely new and the usual concept of populist parties does not seem to fit the Pirate movement very well. It is anti-authoritarian and aims to enhance civic liberties for youngsters, to give open access to culture through the internet and to improve personal integrity and human dignity on the World Wide Web. Transnationalism is one foundation for the party but another is a value foundation of universal human rights and individual freedom, disregarding national borders. This article is an investigation of the Pirate Party as a possible new party family, driven by new sociopolitical cleavages in the modern information society.

scholarly journals Walka o dobrą zmianę: medialne narracje w parlamentarnej kampanii wyborczej w 2015 roku

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 ◽  
pp. 111-124
Author(s):  
Rafał Klepka
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Political Actors ◽  
Tv News ◽  
Media Narratives ◽  
News Programs

The struggle for good change: Media narratives in the parliamentary election campaign in 2015 The role of media narratives in politics is particularly important in the time of narrative media, which interpret reality more than they report on the course of events. The article presents the results of research on the content of TV news programs Wiadomości of TVP, Fakty of TVN, and weeklies Polityka, Newsweek and W Sieci from the period preceding the parliamentary campaign in 2015. The aim of the analysis was to determine to what extent the election materials illustrate the activities of the political actors and how many prepared narratives were intended to clearly suggest to the voters who to vote for. The conclusion drawn from the research is that positive and coherent narratives can significantly increase the chance of achieving electoral success.

scholarly journals Can a beautiful smile win the vote?

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Lena Masch ◽  
Anna Gassner ◽  
Ulrich Rosar
Keyword(s):  
Physical Attractiveness ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Potential Interaction ◽  
Hierarchical Regression ◽  
Emotional Facial Expressions ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Candidate Characteristics ◽  
Recognition Software ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Several empirical studies have linked political candidates’ electoral success to their physical appearance. We reexamine the effects of candidates’ physical attractiveness by taking into account emotional facial expressions as measured by automated facial recognition software. The analysis is based on an observational case study of candidate characteristics in the 2017 German federal election. Using hierarchical regression modeling and controlling for candidates’ displays of happiness, consistent effects of physical attractiveness remain. The results suggest that a potential interaction effect between displays of happiness and attractiveness positively affects vote shares. The study emphasizes the importance of considering emotional expressions when analyzing the impact of candidate appearance on electoral outcomes.

Pathogen Threat Increases Electoral Success for Conservative Parties: Results from a Natural Experiment with COVID-19 in France

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jais Adam-Troian ◽  
Eric Bonetto ◽  
Florent Varet ◽  
Thomas Arciszewski ◽  
Théo Guiller
Keyword(s):  
Real Life ◽  
Ecological Data ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Political Behaviour ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
Search Volume ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Pathogen Prevalence ◽  
Conservative Values

Conservative ideology is closely linked with pathogen prevalence, and adherence to conservative values increases under pathogen threat. To this day, few studies have demonstrated this effect using ecological data. For the first time, we analyse results from an election (the 2020 French local election) which was held during the growing COVID-19 spread in the country. Using mixed modelling on county-level data (N = 96), we show that perceived COVID-19 threat (search volume indices) but not real threat (prevalence rates) prior to the election are positively associated with an increase in conservative votes only. These results were robust to adjustment on several covariates including abstention rates, prior electoral scores for conservative parties and economic characteristics. Overall, a 1% increase in COVID-19 search volumes lead to an increase in conservative votes of .25%, 95%CI[.08,.41]. These results highlight the relevance of evolutionary theory for understanding real-life political behaviour and indicate that the current COVID-19 pandemic could have a substantial impact on electoral outcomes.

Demobilizing Voters: Election Turnout in the 2016 Russian Election

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 411-433
Author(s):  
Ian McAllister ◽  
Stephen White
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
National Survey ◽  
Electoral Success ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Urban Regions ◽  
Sense Of Efficacy ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
Party Support

Under communism, official election returns suggested that around 99 percent of the electorate voted. Since then, election turnout in Russia has declined dramatically, with the 2016 Duma election recording the lowest level of turnout since democratization. This paper uses national survey data collected just after the 2016 election to test four hypotheses to explain this low turnout, and to evaluate its consequences for party support. The results show that a voter’s resources, the degree of mobilization and his or her sense of efficacy all influence the probability of voting. A belief in electoral integrity also matters, but only insofar as it is related to support for the Putin regime. The level of differential turnout across the regions in the 2016 election was exceptional. Both aggregate and individual level analyses confirm that United Russia gained considerably from the higher turnout that occurred in the remoter regions, and from lower turnout in the urban regions. United Russia has pursued a strategy of voter demobilization in areas of low support, and this explains its continuing electoral success.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document