From Smart Data LifeCycle to Smart Simulation Project LifeCycle: The Case of the Voluntary Departure Program of Civil Servants in Morocco

This paper investigates the potential of discrete event simulation for the analysis and evaluation of public strategies and policies and discusses the opportunities offered by the use of a simulation project lifecycle. Following this cycle, we evaluate a public policy use case, the voluntary departure operation initiated in Morocco in 2005, and analyses the success rate of this operation, as well as its impact on the Moroccan pension fund, and this for the period from 2005 to 2025. The results of this simulation highlighted, as already indicated in the Court of Auditors' reports, the irrelevance of this operation, particularly from a financial point of view.

Taxes, Expenditure and Development Nexus: A Panel VECM Analysis on Romanian NUTS2 Regions

The investigation starts with the computation of the Socio-Economic Development Index (SEDI index) with data for Romania. Based on the index values, the long-run relationship between taxes and expenditure is assessed, for Romanian NUTS2 regions from 2000 to 2016. According to the results, there is a Granger causality relationship from budget revenue and expenditure to SEDI. The results emphasize the significant impact of taxes and expenditure on socio-economic development. The paper underlines the need for effective public strategies to be implemented by the authorities at the regional level, which may propel the socio-economic development. The results support the fiscal synchronization hypothesis.

Measures Undertaken in China to Avoid COVID-19 Infection: Internet-Based, Cross-Sectional Survey Study

Background In early 2020, over 80,000 cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) were confirmed in China. Public prevention and control measures, along with efforts from all sectors of society, were undertaken to control and eliminate disease transmission. Objective This paper describes Chinese citizens’ response to the epidemic, the preventive measures they implemented to avoid being infected, and the public strategies that were carried out by the government, health workers, etc. We also discuss the efficacy of these measures in controlling the epidemic in China. Methods Information on the responses and behaviors of Chinese citizens were collected through a cross-sectional, internet-based survey using Dingxiang Doctor’s public account on WeChat. Information on public strategies implemented by all sectors of society to control the epidemic and data on new COVID-19 cases were collected from the internet, mainly from government websites. Standard descriptive statistics and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to analyze the data. Results A total of 10,304 participants responded to the survey, with 10,198 valid responses; 74.1% (n=7557) were female and 25.9% (n=2641) were male. Overall, 98.2% (n=10,013) of participants paid high or very high attention to the epidemic, with WeChat being their main information source (n=9400, 92.2%). Over half the participants (n=5878, 57.7%) were confident that the epidemic could be curbed in China; 92.4% (n=9427) opened windows for ventilation more frequently than usual; 97.9% (n=9986) used masks in public; 95.7% (n=9759) avoided large crowds and stayed at home as much as possible; and 97.9% (n=9988) washed their hands more often than usual. Women were more likely to practice these behaviors than men (P<.001). With a series of strict public control measures, like nationwide health education campaigns, holiday extensions, the Examine and Approve Policy on the resumption of work, close management of working and living quarters, a health QR (Quick Response) code system, community screening, and social distancing policies, the number of new cases have decreased dramatically since February 12, 2020. Conclusions The methods employed by Chinese citizens and authorities have effectively curtailed the spread of COVID-19, demonstrating that this pandemic can be brought under control as long as the right measures are taken.

BRAZIL IS PROJECTED TO BE THE NEXT GLOBAL COVID-19 PANDEMIC EPICENTER

ABSTRACTCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a disease triggered by SARS-CoV-2 infection, which is related in the most recent pandemic situation, significantly affecting health and economic systems. In this study we assessed the death rate associated to COVID-19 in Brazil and the United States of America (USA) to estimate the probability of Brazil becoming the next pandemic epicenter. We equated data between Brazil and USA obtained through the Worldometer website (www.worldometer.info). Epidemic curves from Brazil and USA were associated and regression analysis was undertaken to predict the Brazilian death rate regarding COVID-19 in June. In view of data from April 9th 2020, death rates in Brazil follow a similar exponential increase to USA (r=0.999; p<0.001), estimating 64,310 deaths by June 9th 2020. In brief, our results demonstrated that Brazil follows an analogous progression of COVID-19 deaths cases when compared to USA, signifying that Brazil could be the next global epicenter of COVID-19. We highlight public strategies to decrease the COVID-19 outbreak.

Coffee farmers' incentives to comply with sustainability standards

PurposeThis paper investigates the incentives to coffee farmers to participate in certification schemes that require improved agricultural practices.Design/methodology/approachThe authors ran a choice experiment among 250 Brazilian coffee farmers in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil.FindingsThe authors’ findings show that both cash and non-cash payments are likely to incentive farmers' participation in a certification scheme. Besides price premium, incentives as long-term contracts and provision of technical would encourage producers to adopt eco-certification schemes. Our results also suggest that non-cash payments may be appropriate substitutes to a price premium to some extent.Research limitations/implicationsThe large coffee producers are over-represented in our sample compared to the population of Brazilian coffee farms. However, it seems reasonable to focus on these producers, as they are usually the ones who individually adopt strategies, since small farmers are induced by collective strategies (e.g. cooperatives).Social implicationsThe result regarding technical assistance makes sense given that Brazilian farmers generally have poor access to rural extension services.Originality/valueWe contributed in the literature about adoption of sustainable agriculture practices analyzing the requirements and motivations for farmer participation in certification schemes. We also contribute private and public strategies to encourage the adoption of sustainable practices.

Measures Undertaken in China to Avoid COVID-19 Infection: Internet-Based, Cross-Sectional Survey Study (Preprint)

BACKGROUND In early 2020, over 80,000 cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) were confirmed in China. Public prevention and control measures, along with efforts from all sectors of society, were undertaken to control and eliminate disease transmission. OBJECTIVE This paper describes Chinese citizens’ response to the epidemic, the preventive measures they implemented to avoid being infected, and the public strategies that were carried out by the government, health workers, etc. We also discuss the efficacy of these measures in controlling the epidemic in China. METHODS Information on the responses and behaviors of Chinese citizens were collected through a cross-sectional, internet-based survey using Dingxiang Doctor’s public account on WeChat. Information on public strategies implemented by all sectors of society to control the epidemic and data on new COVID-19 cases were collected from the internet, mainly from government websites. Standard descriptive statistics and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to analyze the data. RESULTS A total of 10,304 participants responded to the survey, with 10,198 valid responses; 74.1% (n=7557) were female and 25.9% (n=2641) were male. Overall, 98.2% (n=10,013) of participants paid high or very high attention to the epidemic, with WeChat being their main information source (n=9400, 92.2%). Over half the participants (n=5878, 57.7%) were confident that the epidemic could be curbed in China; 92.4% (n=9427) opened windows for ventilation more frequently than usual; 97.9% (n=9986) used masks in public; 95.7% (n=9759) avoided large crowds and stayed at home as much as possible; and 97.9% (n=9988) washed their hands more often than usual. Women were more likely to practice these behaviors than men (<i>P</i>&lt;.001). With a series of strict public control measures, like nationwide health education campaigns, holiday extensions, the Examine and Approve Policy on the resumption of work, close management of working and living quarters, a health QR (Quick Response) code system, community screening, and social distancing policies, the number of new cases have decreased dramatically since February 12, 2020. CONCLUSIONS The methods employed by Chinese citizens and authorities have effectively curtailed the spread of COVID-19, demonstrating that this pandemic can be brought under control as long as the right measures are taken.