ANALISIS BAHAYA, LINTASAN, DAN SISTEM PROTEKSI TERHADAP POTENSI LONGSORAN TIPE JATUHAN BATU PADA LERENG BANGUNAN PELIMPAH BENDUNGAN TUGU, JAWA TIMUR

The construction of the Tugu Dam spillway does not escape the problem of slope instability, especially the rock fall type landslide as a result of the rock slope cutting work at STA+80. The purpose of this study was to determine the characteristics of the rock discontinuity area and the solutions needed to address the potential hazards of rock fall on the slopes of spillway structure. In this study, a semi-quantitative method conducted based on the Rockfall Hazard Rating System (RHRS) which is carried out by identifying outcrops on rock slopes. Determination of the rock fall trajectory, was conducted by statistical methods on rock mass based on changes in velocity when rocks roll, slide, and bounce. Geologically, the research area belongs to the Mandalika Formation. Based on the RHRS weighting, the total score on the STA+80 slope is 399, which means that the slope needs to be repaired or given safely with a moderate level of urgency. The rock fall trajectory modeling at the measurement location X = 121,875 has a kinetic energy of 973.14 kJ andesite and 72.59 kJ of volcanic breccia, for high results of 0.43 meters of andesite reflection and 2.04 meters of volcanic breccia, and velocity results translational velocity obtained at 33.8 m/s andesite and 8.67 m/s volcanic breccia. The potential for rock fall requires a safety system with a type of retained flexible barriers with a height of 5 meters that can be applied to the toe of the slope.Keywords: rock fall, discontinuity, trajectory, protection system, Tugu Dam

Hybrid Early Warning System for Rock-Fall Risks Reduction

Rock-fall is a natural threat resulting in many annual economic costs and human casualties. Constructive measures including detection or prediction of rock-fall and warning road users at the appropriate time are required to prevent or reduce the risk. This article presents a hybrid early warning system (HEWS) to reduce the rock-fall risks. In this system, the computer vision model is used to detect and track falling rocks, and the logistic regression model is used to predict the rock-fall occurrence. In addition, the hybrid risk reduction model is used to classify the hazard levels and delivers early warning action. In order to determine the system’s performance, this study adopted parameters, namely overall prediction performance measures, based on a confusion matrix and reliability. The results show that the overall system accuracy was 97.9%, and the reliability was 0.98. In addition, a system can reduce the risk probability from (6.39 × 10−3) to (1.13 × 10−8). The result indicates that this system is accurate, reliable, and robust; this confirms the purpose of the HEWS to reduce rock-fall risk.

Leveraging on Multidisciplinary Expertise for Landslide Disaster Risk Reduction and Management: A Case Study of a Limestone Hill Rockfall Hazard Assessment, Batu Caves, Selangor, Malaysia

The United Nations Development Program agenda 2030 has charted out seventeen Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) whereby Malaysia as a member has strategically set the platform for growth. From the seventeen agendas, the SDG 9 (built resilient, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation) and SDG 11 (make cities and human settlements inclusive, resilient, and sustainable) requires a paradigm shift from conventional engineering approach for environmentally induced disasters. Leveraging multidisciplinary ability and information and communications technology (ICT) in the landslide disaster studies had enabled regional-scale information acquirement for hazards identification, exposure, and risk assessment to meet the goals. The investigated limestone hill, Batu Caves is located within the suburban city of Kuala Lumpur. The land use around the hill is extensive and the area is highly populated with encroachment to the toe of the limestone hill. The purpose of the risk study was to assess the limestone hill’s stability and hazards and the exposure that may lead to the vulnerability of the residences and commercial activities at and around the hill. Therefore, an engineering risk assessment study was carried out to determine rock fall hazard potential. The Terrestrial Laser Scanning survey was utilized to obtain the hillside’s cross section. Discontinuity mapping was conducted to identify rock block size and rock slope was analyzed using rock mass classification system to determine rock slope quality. The rockfall analysis was conducted to identify rock rollout distance and produce rock fall hazard maps. The Slope Mass Rating for the slope BC1A, Parcel 1, Batu Caves was determined as 61, and is classified as a partially stable. The maximum rollout distance at this slope was 11 m. This illustrates the practical output of this study that can be applied for mitigation and future development of the area.

Anatomy of a Catastrophe: Reconstructing the 1936 Rock Fall and Tsunami Event in Lake Lovatnet, Western Norway

Rock falls and landslides plunging into lakes or small reservoirs can result in tsunamis with extreme wave run-ups. The occurrence of these natural hazards in populated areas have encouraged a recent sharp increase of studies that aim to mitigate their impact on human lives and assess infrastructure lost. This paper amalgamates in a novel fashion and at an unprecedented detail in situ historic measurements, geological data and numerical modeling of a rock fall event and associated tsunami wave that occurred in Lake Lovatnet (western Norway) in September 1936. Historical records report an event that released ca. 1 million m3 of rocks and debris from Ramnefjellet Mountain at an altitude of 800 m above Lake Lovatnet. The fragmented material plunged into the lake, causing a tsunami that reached a maximum run-up of 74 m and killed 74 people. In fact, the settlements of Bødal and Nesdal were wiped out as a result of the catastrophic wave. Sediments resulting from the 1936 rock fall and associated tsunami were identified in the subsurface of Lake Lovatnet by shallow geophysical investigations and were retrieved using gravity coring equipment. A set of high resolution physical and geochemical measurements were carried out on the cores with the aim of reproducing a highly detailed reconstruction of this catastrophic event in order to better understand and learn about the processes involved. The cores were retrieved in the northwestern sub-basin of the lake and its chronology was constrained by 210Pb and radiocarbon dating. A specially tailored physically based mathematical model was applied to better understand the tsunami event. Integration of the geophysical record, the sedimentological data and numerical modeling provide a comprehensive background to better understand the effects of such event in a deep fjord-like lacustrine basin and to generate information for better mitigation of similar events elsewhere.

High alpine rock-wall retreat rates over millennia through thermo-cryogenic pre-conditioned rock fall (Mt. Eiger, Switzerland)

<p>Rock fall processes of various size and magnitude control retreat rates of high alpine rock-walls. For millennial time scales, these retreat rates can be quantified in-situ from concentrations of cosmogenic nuclides along bedrock depth profiles (Mair et al., 2019). We measured cosmogenic <sup>36</sup>Cl and <sup>10</sup>Be along several such profiles at Mt Eiger in the Central Swiss Alps to study the local rock-wall retreat on this time scale (Mair et al., 2019; 2020). The resulting spatial pattern shows that rock-wall retreat rates are low (0.5 to 0.6 ± 0.1 mm/yr) in the higher region of the NW rock-wall, in contrast to both the lower part of the NW rock-wall and the SE face, where rates are high (1.7 ± 0.4 to 3.5 ± 1.4 mm/yr). We link these retreat rates to differences in local temperature conditions, because the patterns of faults and fractures and the lithology of the bedrock are similar at all sites, and thermo-cryogenic processes are known to weaken the bedrock through fracturing, thereby preconditioning the occurrence of rock fall (e.g., Draebing and Krautblatter, 2019). However, it is still unclear how effective and at which rate individual thermo-cryogenic processes contribute to the preconditioning through fracturing. Therefore, we investigate several processes and estimate the probability of bedrock fracturing through the employment of a theoretical frost-cracking model, which predicts cracking intensity from ice segregation. The model results infer a low efficiency in the higher region of the NW rock-wall, but a relatively high one in the lower section of the NW wall and on the SE rock face of Mt. Eiger. Although the model is rather generic, the results disclose a significant control of temperature conditions on the erosional processes and rates. Furthermore, temperature conditions for the last millennia have been similar to present day conditions, as our reconstructions disclose, therefore the cosmogenic-nuclide-based long-term differences in rock-wall retreat rates predominantly stem from large contrasts in the microclimate between the NW and SE walls of Mt. Eiger. Accordingly, the site-specific differences in microclimate conditions could explain the lower retreat rates in the upper part of the NW rock-wall and the rapid retreat in the SW face and in the lower part of the NW rock face.</p><p>References</p><p>Draebing, D. and Krautblatter, M.: The Efficacy of Frost Weathering Processes in Alpine Rockwalls, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 6516–6524, doi:10.1029/2019GL081981, 2019.</p><p>Mair, D., Lechmann, A., Yesilyurt, S., Tikhomirov, D., Delunel, R., Vockenhuber, C., Akçar, N. and Schlunegger, F.: Fast long-term denudation rate of steep alpine headwalls inferred from cosmogenic 36Cl depth profiles, Sci. Rep., 9, 11023, doi:10.1038/s41598-019-46969-0, 2019.</p><p>Mair, D., Lechmann, A., Delunel, R., Yeşilyurt, S., Tikhomirov, D., Vockenhuber, C., Christl, M., Akçar, N. and Schlunegger, F.: The role of frost cracking in local denudation of steep Alpine rockwalls over millennia (Eiger, Switzerland), Earth Surf. Dyn., 8, 637–659, doi:10.5194/esurf-8-637-2020, 2020.</p>

Anticipating cascading risks at the imminent Hochvogel peak failure

<p>Climatic changes are exacerbating the risk of alpine mass movements for example through more frequent and extreme heavy precipitation events. To cope with this situation, the monitoring, anticipation, and early warning of rock slope failures based on process dynamics is a key strategy for alpine communities. However, only investigating the release area of an imminent event is insufficient, as the primary hazard can trigger or increase secondary hazards like debris flows or the damming of a river. Nevertheless, recent case studies dealing with successive hazards are rarely existent for the Calcareous Alps. In this study, we precisely investigate the cascading effects resulting from an imminent rock fall and perform a pre-event analysis instead of back-modelling of a past event.</p><p>The Hochvogel summit (2592 m a.s.l., Allgäu Alps, Germany/Austria) is divided by several pronounced clefts that separate multiple instable blocks. 3D-UAV point clouds reveal a potentially instable mass of 260,000 m³ in six main subunits. From our near real time monitoring system (Leinauer et al. 2020), we know that some cracks are opening at faster pace and react differently to heavy rainfall, making a successive failure of subunits likely. However, pre-deformations are not yet pronounced enough to decide on the exact expected volume whereas secondary effects are likely as the preparing rock fall mass will be deposited into highly debris-loaded channels. Therefore, we developed different rock fall scenarios from the gathered monitoring information, which we implemented into a RAMMS modelling of secondary debris flows. To obtain best- and worst-case results, each scenario is calculated with different erosion parameters in the runout channel. The models are calibrated with a well-documented debris flow event at Roßbichelgraben (10 km NW and similar lithology) and are supported by field investigations in the runout channel including electrical resistivity tomography profiles (ERT) for determination of the depth of erodible material as well as a drone survey for mapping the area and the generation of an elevation model.</p><p>Here we show a comprehensive scenario-based assessment for anticipating cascading risks at the Hochvogel from initial rock failure volume estimation to debris flow evolution and potential river damming. This recent case study from an alpine calcareous peak is an excellent and rare chance to gain insights into cascading risks modelling and an improved hazard evaluation.</p>