Anticipating cascading risks at the imminent Hochvogel peak failure

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes Leinauer ◽  
Manfred Meindl ◽  
Benjamin Jacobs ◽  
Verena Stammberger ◽  
Michael Krautblatter
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flow ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Point Clouds ◽  
Volume Estimation ◽  
Rock Fall ◽  
Recent Case ◽  
Hazard Evaluation ◽  
Event Analysis ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Cascading Effects

<p>Climatic changes are exacerbating the risk of alpine mass movements for example through more frequent and extreme heavy precipitation events. To cope with this situation, the monitoring, anticipation, and early warning of rock slope failures based on process dynamics is a key strategy for alpine communities. However, only investigating the release area of an imminent event is insufficient, as the primary hazard can trigger or increase secondary hazards like debris flows or the damming of a river. Nevertheless, recent case studies dealing with successive hazards are rarely existent for the Calcareous Alps. In this study, we precisely investigate the cascading effects resulting from an imminent rock fall and perform a pre-event analysis instead of back-modelling of a past event.</p><p>The Hochvogel summit (2592 m a.s.l., Allgäu Alps, Germany/Austria) is divided by several pronounced clefts that separate multiple instable blocks. 3D-UAV point clouds reveal a potentially instable mass of 260,000 m³ in six main subunits. From our near real time monitoring system (Leinauer et al. 2020), we know that some cracks are opening at faster pace and react differently to heavy rainfall, making a successive failure of subunits likely. However, pre-deformations are not yet pronounced enough to decide on the exact expected volume whereas secondary effects are likely as the preparing rock fall mass will be deposited into highly debris-loaded channels. Therefore, we developed different rock fall scenarios from the gathered monitoring information, which we implemented into a RAMMS modelling of secondary debris flows. To obtain best- and worst-case results, each scenario is calculated with different erosion parameters in the runout channel. The models are calibrated with a well-documented debris flow event at Roßbichelgraben (10 km NW and similar lithology) and are supported by field investigations in the runout channel including electrical resistivity tomography profiles (ERT) for determination of the depth of erodible material as well as a drone survey for mapping the area and the generation of an elevation model.</p><p>Here we show a comprehensive scenario-based assessment for anticipating cascading risks at the Hochvogel from initial rock failure volume estimation to debris flow evolution and potential river damming. This recent case study from an alpine calcareous peak is an excellent and rare chance to gain insights into cascading risks modelling and an improved hazard evaluation.</p>

scholarly journals Debris-flow volume quantile prediction from catchment morphometry

Geology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 47 (8) ◽  
pp. 791-794 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tjalling de Haas ◽  
Alexander L. Densmore
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flow ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Volume Estimation ◽  
Catchment Characteristics ◽  
Reconstructed Volume ◽  
Elevation Data ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Watershed Boundary ◽  
Catchment Morphometry ◽  
Frequency Curves

Abstract Estimation of the volumes of potential future debris flows is a key factor in hazard assessment and mitigation. Worldwide, however, there are few catchments for which detailed volume-frequency information is available. We (1) reconstructed volume-frequency curves for 10 debris-flow catchments in Saline Valley, California (USA), from a large number of well-preserved, unmodified surficial flow deposits, and (2) assessed the correlations between lobe-volume quantiles and a set of morphometric catchment characteristics. We found statistically significant correlations between lobe-volume quantiles, including median and maximum, and catchment relief, length (planimetric distance from the fan apex to the most distant point along the watershed boundary), perimeter, and Melton ratio (relief divided by the square root of catchment area). These findings show that it may be possible to roughly estimate debris-flow lobe-volume quantiles from basic catchment characteristics that can be obtained from globally available elevation data. This may assist in design-volume estimation for debris-flow catchments where past flow volumes are otherwise unknown.

Using Fuzzy Inference System to the Analysis of Debris Flow Hazard

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pao H. Lin ◽  
K. H. Chen
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flow ◽  
Interface Design ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Evaluation System ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Hazard Evaluation ◽  
Graphic User Interface ◽  
Design Environment ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Debris Flow Hazard

In this study 11 factors influential to the evolvement of debris flows are identified via literature review and a thorough comparison among previous studies. Aided by MATLAB software and the concept of property in Fuzzy logic theory, an evaluation system for debris flow hazard is developed. Also, the proposed inference system is facilitated with Graphic User Interface Design Environment, so that observers or researchers may easily become familiar with system operation and utilize the system’s estimation as references for hazard judgment. Validation results with simulated cases of three different degrees of hazard severity evidenced that the present evaluation system on debris flows was effective with debris flows of high, low, and median hazards, as well as acceptable feasibility. Further, based on data gathered from rivers subject to debris flow and several actual cases in Taiwan, this proposed system was proved to achieve acceptable precision on the hazard evaluation of debris flow.

scholarly journals Debris flow run-out simulation and analysis using a dynamic model

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 555-570 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raquel Melo ◽  
Theo van Asch ◽  
José L. Zêzere
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flow ◽  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Back Analysis ◽  
Rheological Parameters ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Central Portugal

Abstract. Only two months after a huge forest fire occurred in the upper part of a valley located in central Portugal, several debris flows were triggered by intense rainfall. The event caused infrastructural and economic damage, although no lives were lost. The present research aims to simulate the run-out of two debris flows that occurred during the event as well as to calculate via back-analysis the rheological parameters and the excess rain involved. Thus, a dynamic model was used, which integrates surface runoff, concentrated erosion along the channels, propagation and deposition of flow material. Afterwards, the model was validated using 32 debris flows triggered during the same event that were not considered for calibration. The rheological and entrainment parameters obtained for the most accurate simulation were then used to perform three scenarios of debris flow run-out on the basin scale. The results were confronted with the existing buildings exposed in the study area and the worst-case scenario showed a potential inundation that may affect 345 buildings. In addition, six streams where debris flow occurred in the past and caused material damage and loss of lives were identified.

scholarly journals Debris-flow volume quantile prediction from catchment morphometry

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Densmore ◽  
Tjalling de Haas
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flow ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Catchment Area ◽  
Volume Estimation ◽  
Flow Volume ◽  
Catchment Characteristics ◽  
Elevation Data ◽  
Watershed Boundary ◽  
Catchment Morphometry ◽  
Frequency Curves

<p>Estimation of the volumes of potential future debris flows is key for hazard assessment and mitigation. Worldwide, however, there are few catchments for which detailed volume-frequency information is available. We (1) reconstruct volume-frequency curves for 10 debris-flow catchments in Saline Valley, California, USA, from a large number of well-preserved, unmodified surficial flow deposits, and (2) assess the correlations between lobe-volume quantiles and a set of morphometric catchment characteristics. We find statistically-significant correlations between lobe-volume quantiles, including median and maximum, and catchment relief, length (planimetric distance from the fan apex to the most distant point along the watershed boundary), perimeter, and Melton ratio (relief divided by the square root of catchment area). These findings show that it may be possible to roughly estimate debris-flow lobe-volume quantiles from basic catchment characteristics that can be obtained from globally-available elevation data. This may assist with design-volume estimation in debris-flow catchments where past flow volumes are otherwise unknown.</p>

scholarly journals Identifying buildings at risk and pedestrian travel times to safety areas in a debris flow worst-case scenario

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raquel Melo ◽  
José Luís Zêzere ◽  
Sérgio Oliveira ◽  
Ricardo Garcia ◽  
Sandra Oliveira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Debris Flow ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Evacuation Modelling ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
Pedestrian Evacuation ◽  
Pedestrian Travel

<p>During the last two centuries, several debris flow events occurred in the upper part of the Zêzere valley, which is located in the Estrela mountain, in Central Portugal. These events were responsible for material damage as well as for the loss of lives. Given the susceptibility of this area to the occurrence of debris flows, a methodology for pedestrian evacuation modelling was implemented, in order to identify buildings at risk and pedestrian travel times to safety areas in a debris flow worst-case scenario. Starting from a dynamic run-out model, developed in previous works, the potential debris flow intensity was estimated (e.g. flow depth, velocity and run-out distance). Sequentially, the buildings potentially affected by the impact of debris flows, as well as the ones where the evacuation would take longer than the debris flows arrival, were identified. In addition, the potentially exposed population was estimated by applying a dasymetric distribution to each residential building. This population distribution took into account the identification of the older residents as the most exposed to debris flows, which is critical to develop reliable pedestrian evacuation travel time scenarios. The pedestrian evacuation modelling was performed using the Pedestrian Evacuation Analyst, a GIS tool developed by the United States Geological Survey. The evacuation modelling was based on an anisotropic approach, which considers the influence of slope direction on travel costs, thus its application is suitable in a mountainous area. The implemented methodology is a critical step towards the implementation of a reliable early warning system to debris flows that can be reproduced elsewhere.</p><p><strong>Funding information</strong>: This work was financed by national funds through FCT—Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, I.P., under the framework of the project BeSafeSlide—Landslide Early Warning soft technology prototype to improve community resilience and adaptation to environmental change (PTDC/GES-AMB/30052/2017) and by the Research Unit UIDB/00295/2020. Pedro Pinto Santos is funded by FCT through the project with the reference CEEIND/00268/2017.</p>

scholarly journals Debris flow run-out simulation and analysis using a dynamic model

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raquel Melo ◽  
Theo van Asch ◽  
José L. Zêzere
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flow ◽  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Back Analysis ◽  
Quantitative Information ◽  
Rheological Parameters ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Central Portugal

Abstract. Only two months after a huge wildfire occurred in the upper part of a valley located in Central Portugal, several debris flows were triggered by intense rainfall. The event caused infrastructural and economical damage, although no life was lost. The present research aims to simulate the run-out of two debris flows occurred during the event as well as to calculate by back-analysis the rheological parameters and the excess rain involved. Thus, a dynamic model was used, which integrates surface runoff, concentrated erosion along the channels, propagation and deposition of flow material. The rheological and entrainment parameters obtained for the most accurate simulation were then used to perform three scenarios of debris flows run-out at the basin scale. Due to the lack of quantitative information to validate these models, the results were compared with historical references of debris flow events in the study area. Six streams were identified, where debris flows occurred in the past and caused material damage and loss of lives. The worst-case scenario carried out at the basin scale shows a potential inundation that may affect 345 buildings at the present day.

scholarly journals LANDSLIDE RUNOUT DISTANCE PREDICTION BASED ON MECHANISM AND CAUSE OF SOIL OR ROCK MASS MOVEMENT

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Qarinur
Keyword(s):  
Rock Mass ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Empirical Equation ◽  
Mass Movement ◽  
Rock Fall ◽  
Hazard Evaluation ◽  
Linear Regression Method ◽  
Rock Falls ◽  
The Impact

Landslide often occurs in tropical hills area, such as Indonesia. Research on landslide hazard evaluation is necessary to decrease the impact in affected and surrounding areas. Empirical-statistical methods can be used to predict landslide run out distance in an effort to avoid the danger of landslide occurrences. This study aims to determine the correlation between landslide run out distance against high, slope, and volume based on mechanisms and causes of soil or rock mass movement. Data mainly from 106 landslides in Indonesia has been analyzed to search for possible correlations and empirical correlations, there are 34 rotational slides, 54 translational slides, 8 debris flows, and 10 rock falls. Analysis begins by studying the characteristics of the data (explanatory data analysis) and then analyzed by using empirical methods such as geomorphological assessment and geometrical approaches. Then the data is processed by simple linear regression and multiple linear regression method using the R software. The results obtained from the analysis of the general empirical equation form of the correlation between height (H) and run out distance (L) is 1.066H1.093, respectively. This results indicate the higher altitude slopes, the greater distance will happen. The results of the analysis correlation between height and run out distance for the type of mass movements for rotational is L=1.346+1.788 H, translational is L=-3.88+1.578H, debris flow is L=0.682H1.29, and rock fall is L=2.223H0.897. This result shows debris flows landslide run out distance is greater than rotational, translational and rock fall. The results of the analysis correlation between height and run out distance of the trigger due to the rain is L=1.267H1.027, and by an earthquake is L=0.574H1.38. This results show run out distance caused by an earthquake is larger than caused by rain. The correlation between the run out distance and volume (V) yields empirical equation which is V=0.772L2.108. This results indicate that greater run out distance is affected by the growing volume of mass movement. The results of the analysis correlation between height and slope (θ) to run out distance is L=1.448H1.062 tan θ-0,482. This results indicate that slope has a significant impact on the value of landslide run out distance.

scholarly journals Numerical simulation of debris flows triggered from the Strug rock fall source area, W Slovenia

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 261-270 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Mikoš ◽  
R. Fazarinc ◽  
B. Majes ◽  
R. Rajar ◽  
D. Žagar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flow ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Model Calibration ◽  
Source Area ◽  
Rock Fall ◽  
One Dimensional ◽  
Engineering Measures ◽  
The Village ◽  
Extreme Scenario

Abstract. The Strug landslide was triggered in December 2001 as a rockslide, followed by a rock fall. In 2002, about 20 debris flows were registered in the Kosec village; they were initiated in the Strug rock fall source area. They all flowed through the aligned Brusnik channel, which had been finished just before the first debris flow reached the village in April 2002. Debris flow events were rainfall-induced but also governed by the availability of rock fall debris in its zone of accumulation. After 2002 there was not enough material available for further debris flows to reach the village. Nevertheless, a decision was reached to use mathematical modeling to prepare a hazard map for the village for possible new debris flows. Using the hydrological data of the Brusnik watershed and the rheological characteristics of the debris material, 5 different scenarios were defined with the debris flow volumes from 1000 m3 to a maximum of 25 000 m3. Two mathematical models were used, a one-dimensional model DEBRIF-1D, and a two-dimensional commercially available model FLO-2D. Due to the lack of other field data, data extracted from available professional films of debris flows in 2002 in the Kosec village were used for model calibration. The computational reach was put together from an 800-m long upstream reach and 380-m long regulated reach of the Brusnik channel through the village of Kosec. Both mathematical models have proved that the aligned Brusnik channel can convey debris flows of the volume up to 15 000 m3. Under the most extreme scenario a debris flow with 25 000 m3 would locally spill over the existing levees along the regulated Brusnik channel. For this reason, additional river engineering measures have been proposed, such as the raising of the levees and the construction of a right-hand side sedimentation area for debris flows at the downstream end of the regulated reach.

Spatio-temporal patterns of debris-flow erosion and deposition in the Illgraben torrent

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tjalling de Haas ◽  
Wiebe Nijland ◽  
Brian McArdell
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flow ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Temporal Patterns ◽  
Volume Estimation ◽  
Swiss Alps ◽  
Flow Volume ◽  
Flow Measurements ◽  
Erosion And Deposition ◽  
Deposition Patterns ◽  
Spatio Temporal

<p>Debris flows can grow greatly in size and hazardous potential by eroding bed material, but effective hazard assessment and mitigation is currently hampered by limited understanding of erosion and deposition dynamics. We have collected high-resolution pre- and post-flow topography with drone-based photogrammetry in the Illgraben channel in the Swiss Alps. We present erosion and deposition patterns as a result of six debris flows and intensive subcatchment activity over a 3.3 km long unconsolidated reach with check dams, and interpret these erosion and deposition patterns with in-situ flow measurements. We show that the spatio-temporal patterns of erosion and deposition in natural debris-flow torrents are highly variable and dynamic. We identify a memory effect where erosion is strong at locations of strong deposition during previous flows and vice versa. Large sediment inputs from subcatchments initially result in new channel erosion through the subcatchments deposits and at the same time upstream deposition as a result of backwater effects. It is generally believed that erosion increases with debris-flow magnitude, but we show that there is a limit to debris-flow bulking set by channel geometry. Large flows that overtop their channel deposit large amount of sediment in levees and on overbanks, leading to net deposition despite strong thalweg erosion, and thus a decrease in flow volume. These findings provide key guidelines for flow volume forecasting, emphasizing the importance of memory effects and the need to resolve both erosion and deposition for accurate flow volume estimation.</p>

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