Resilience and vulnerability of maternity services in Zimbabwe: a comparative analysis of the effect of Covid-19 and lockdown control measures on maternal and perinatal outcomes, a single-centre cross-sectional study at Mpilo Central Hospital

Background On the 27th of March 2020 the Zimbabwean government declared the Covid-19 pandemic a ‘national disaster’. Travel restrictions and emergency regulations have had significant impacts on maternity services, including resource stock-outs, and closure of antenatal clinics during the lockdown period. Estimates of the indirect impact of Covid-19 on maternal and perinatal mortality was expected it to be considerable, but little data was yet available. This study aimed to examine the impact of Covid-19 and lockdown control measures on non-Covid outcomes in a government tertiary level maternity unit in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe, by comparing maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality before, and after the lockdown was implemented. Methods This was a retrospective, observational study, using a cross-sectional design to compare routine monthly maternal and perinatal statistics three months before and after Covid-19 emergency measures were implemented at Mpilo Central Hospital. Results Between January-March and April-June 2020, the mean monthly deliveries reduced from 747.3 (SD ± 61.3) in the first quarter of 2020 to 681.0 (SD ± 17.6) during lockdown, but this was not statistically significant, p = 0.20. The Caesarean section rates fell from a mean of 29.8% (SD ± 1.7) versus 28.0% (SD ± 1.7), which was also not statistically significant, p = 0.18. During lockdown, the percentage of women delivering at Mpilo Central Hospital who were booked at the hospital fell from a mean of 41.6% (SD ± 1.1) to 35.8% (SD ± 4.3) which was statistically significant, p = 0.03. There was no significant change, however, in maternal mortality or severe maternal morbidity (such as post-partum haemorrhage (PPH), uterine rupture, and severe preeclampsia/eclampsia), stillbirth rate or special care baby unit admission. There was an increase in the mean total number of early neonatal deaths (ENND) (mean 18.7 (SD ± 2.9) versus 24.0 (SD ± 4.6), but this was not statistically significant, p = 0.32. Conclusions Overall, maternity services at Mpilo showed resilience during the lockdown period, with no significant change in maternal and perinatal adverse outcomes, with the same number of man-hours worked before and during the lockdown Maternal and perinatal outcomes should continue to be monitored to assess the impact of Covid-19 and the lockdown measures as the pandemic in Zimbabwe unfolds. Further studies would be beneficial to explore women’s experiences and understand how bookings and deliveries at local clinics changed during this time.

Modelling Prenatal Care Pathways at a Central Hospital in Zimbabwe

Background: Maternal mortality remains a problem in low-income countries (LICs). In Zimbabwe, there has been an unprecedented increase in maternal mortality in the last 2.5 decades. Effective prenatal care delivery, particularly early visits, appropriate number of visits, and receiving recommended care is viewed as key to reducing fatal care outcomes. Aims: This study sought to model and identify gaps requiring service and care delivery improvement in prenatal care pathways for pregnant women visiting Mpilo Central Hospital in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe. Methods: This was a case study of the services offered by an antenatal care department at Mpilo Central Hospital in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe. Evidence from literature in low-income countries was used to develop prenatal care pathway guidelines as a tool to guide care delivery and identify gaps in care and service delivery. One hundred cases of prenatal care records were reviewed to determine the prenatal care pathway and care delivered to pregnant women. This data was complemented by interviews with 20 maternity care clinicians. Results: In 100 maternity case records studied, 53% booked for prenatal care. Of the 53% (n = 53) pregnant women who booked, their first visit on their pregnancy was late at an average gestational age of 27.1 weeks with extremes of 30 to 40 weeks in 38% (n = 20) cases. Missing scheduled prenatal care appointments was prevalent, with only 11% (n = 6) having attended all the expected 5 visits, whilst 60% (n = 32) missed 3 or more. There were inadequacies in the care delivered to women in each visit compared to that expected in such areas as obstetrics, physical examinations and haematological tests. Maternity care clinicians attributed the cost of prenatal booking fees in the background of poverty and poor family support systems as key factors hindering women’s access to prenatal services. Conclusions: The current prenatal care pathway at MCH requires improvement in the areas of referral, adherence to appointment by pregnant women and visiting prenatal care early. Clinicians also need to adhere to standard clinical tests recommended for each specific pregnant woman’s visit. In the Zimbabwean setting with limited resources, where the number of visits is already low, pathways with reduced visits may not be appropriate. An investment into prenatal care by the government is recommended to enable the utilisation of interventions such as e-health technologies that may improve care delivery as well as adherence to best practices. E-health and mobile health technologies involving e-referrals, e-booking, decision support, and reminder systems are recommended for clinicians to manage and deliver appropriate care to patients as well as pregnant women to adhere to scheduled visits.

Risk factors for composite adverse outcomes of postpartum haemorrhage, Mpilo Central Hospital, Bulawayo, Zimbabwe

Background Globally, primary postpartum haemorrhage continues to cause considerable maternal morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to determine the risk factors for composite adverse outcomes of postpartum haemorrhage. The findings could potentially be used to anticipate and prevent composite adverse outcomes of postpartum haemorrhage. Methods This was a retrospective cross-sectional study carried out at Mpilo Central Hospital, a government tertiary referral centre, covering the period 1 July 2016 to 30 November 2019. Participants were included in the study if they had a diagnosis of postpartum haemorrhage. Those variables that had a p<0.2 from the univariate logistic regression analyses were considered for multivariable logistic regression. The association between independent variables and the dependent variable was assessed using odds ratio with 95% confidence intervals, to identify independent risk factors for composite adverse outcomes in PPH. A p< 0.05 was taken as statistically significant. Results The independent risk factors for composite adverse outcomes of postpartum haemorrhage were place of dwelling (AOR 4.57, 95% CI 1.87-11.12, p=0.01), prior Caesarean section (AOR 2.57, 95% CI 1.10-6.00, p=0.03), antepartum haemorrhage (AOR 5.45, 95% CI 2.23-13.27, p<0.0001), antenatal haemoglobin level (AOR 19.64, 95% CI 1.44-268.50, p=0.03), and current delivery by Caesarean section (AOR 10.21, 95% CI 4.39-23.74, p<0.0001). Blood loss was also an independent risk factor for composite adverse outcomes of postpartum haemorrhage with the following blood loss; 1001-1500ml (AOR 9.94, 95% CI 3.68-26.88, p<0.0001), 500-1000ml (AOR 41.27, 95% CI 11.32-150.54, p<0.0001), and 2001ml (AOR 164.77, 95% CI 31.06-874.25, p<0.0001). Conclusion This study found that the independent predictors for composite adverse outcomes of PPH were rural dwelling, prior Caesarean section, antenatal haemoglobin level, current delivery by Caesarean section, and blood loss. In low- and middle-income countries such information could help in increasing clinical vigilance and policy making, and preventing maternal deaths.

Resilience and vulnerability of maternity services in Zimbabwe: a comparative analysis of the effect of Covid-19 and lockdown control measures on maternal and perinatal outcomes at Mpilo Central Hospital.

Background: On 27th March the Zimbabwean government declared the Covid-19 pandemic a ‘national disaster’. Travel restrictions and emergency regulations have had significant impacts on maternity services, including staff shortages, resource stock-outs, and closure of antenatal clinics. Estimates of the indirect impact of Covid-19 on maternal and perinatal mortality expect it to be considerable, but little data is yet available.This study aims to examine the impact of Covid-19 and lockdown control measures on non-Covid outcomes in a government tertiary level maternity unit in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe, by comparing maternal and perinatal morbidity and mortality before and after lockdown was implemented.Methods: This is a retrospective, observational study, using a cross-sectional design to compare routine monthly maternal and perinatal statistics three months before and after Covid-19 emergency measures at Mpilo Central Hospital.Results: Between January-March and April-June 2020, average monthly deliveries fell from 747 to 681 and Caesarean section rates from 29.8% to 26.6%. Women with unbooked pregnancies presenting in labour almost doubled from 4.4% to 8%. There was no substantial change, however, in maternal mortality or severe maternal morbidity (post-partum haemorrhage (PPH), uterine rupture, severe preeclampsia/eclampsia), stillbirth rate or special care baby unit (SCBU) admission. There was a small increase in early neonatal death (ENND) from an average of 18.7 to 24.0 deaths per month.Conclusion: Maternal and perinatal outcomes must continue to be monitored to assess the impact of Covid-19 and lockdown measures as the epidemic in Zimbabwe unfolds. Despite the vulnerability of the healthcare system, the resilience and commitment of maternity units and healthcare workers to providing care in the most difficult circumstances should not be underestimated.

Development and validation of a predictive model for composite adverse outcomes in primary postpartum haemorrhage in a low-resource setting, Mpilo Central Hospital, Bulawayo, Zimbabwe.

BackgroundPrimary postpartum haemorrhage remains an important cause of maternal mortality and morbidity globally. It is difficult to predict. There are very few predictive models on composite adverse outcomes on postpartum haemorrhage that are available in the literature. The aim of this study was to develop and validate multivariable predictive model to assist clinicians in decision-making after a diagnosis of postpartum haemorrhage is made, and to prevent the development of composite adverse outcomes.MethodsThis was a retrospective cross-sectional study that covered the period from 1 July 2016 to 30 November 2019, at Mpilo Central Hospital. The study included participants that had a diagnosis of postpartum haemorrhage within 24 hours of delivery at Mpilo Central Hospital. The independent variables included socio-demographic factors, laboratory tests, clinical outcomes, causes and the management of PPH. The outcome of interest for this research was composite adverse outcome in PPH. Predictor variables that had a p<0.2 from the bivariate correlations analyses were considered for the multivariable stepwise backward logistic regression. Performance of the model was assessed with a calibration slope. Discrimination ability was evaluated using the area under curve of the receiver operating characteristic (AU ROC). Internal validation of the model was assessed using bootstrap method. ResultsThe final predicted probability model for composite adverse maternal outcomes was; logit (logarithm of the odds) (pi) = 0.141 + (2.35 x 10-1 x blood loss) + (-1.18 x 10-1 x platelets) + (0.57 x 10-1 x parity) + (2.27 x 10-1 x ruptured uterus).The model was well calibrated. The discrimination ability of the model was excellent. The AU ROC curve was 0.890 (95% CI 0.830-0.949, p<0.0001). Internal validation was by bootstrapping, and the model was still a good fit for the data with a p<0.0001.ConclusionsA predictive model for composite adverse outcomes in PPH was developed. It had a good discriminatory ability, with an AU ROC of 0.890 (95% CI 0.830-0.949). This predictive model for composite adverse outcomes could help clinicians to be alerted to which women with PPH are most likely to develop composite adverse outcomes thereby preventing maternal deaths.