Forecaster Perceptions and Climatological Analysis of the Influence of Convective Mode on Tornado Climatology and Warning Success

2019 ◽  
Vol 110 (4) ◽  
pp. 1075-1094 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelsey N. Ellis ◽  
Daniel Burow ◽  
Kelly N. Gassert ◽  
Lisa Reyes Mason ◽  
Megan S. Porter
2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (8) ◽  
pp. 2997-3023 ◽  
Author(s):  
Craig S. Schwartz

Abstract Two sets of global, 132-h (5.5-day), 10-member ensemble forecasts were produced with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) for 35 cases in April and May 2017. One MPAS ensemble had a quasi-uniform 15-km mesh while the other employed a variable-resolution mesh with 3-km cell spacing over the conterminous United States (CONUS) that smoothly relaxed to 15 km over the rest of the globe. Precipitation forecasts from both MPAS ensembles were objectively verified over the central and eastern CONUS to assess the potential benefits of configuring MPAS with a 3-km mesh refinement region for medium-range forecasts. In addition, forecasts from NCEP’s operational Global Ensemble Forecast System were evaluated and served as a baseline against which to compare the experimental MPAS ensembles. The 3-km MPAS ensemble most faithfully reproduced the observed diurnal cycle of precipitation throughout the 132-h forecasts and had superior precipitation skill and reliability over the first 48 h. However, after 48 h, the three ensembles had more similar spread, reliability, and skill, and differences between probabilistic precipitation forecasts derived from the 3- and 15-km MPAS ensembles were typically statistically insignificant. Nonetheless, despite fewer benefits of increased resolution for spatial placement after 48 h, 3-km ensemble members explicitly provided potentially valuable guidance regarding convective mode throughout the 132-h forecasts while the other ensembles did not. Collectively, these results suggest both strengths and limitations of medium-range high-resolution ensemble forecasts and reveal pathways for future investigations to improve understanding of high-resolution global ensembles with variable-resolution meshes.


2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (10) ◽  
pp. 1-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olivia Kellner ◽  
Dev Niyogi

Abstract Land surface heterogeneity affects mesoscale interactions, including the evolution of severe convection. However, its contribution to tornadogenesis is not well known. Indiana is selected as an example to present an assessment of documented tornadoes and land surface heterogeneity to better understand the spatial distribution of tornadoes. This assessment is developed using a GIS framework taking data from 1950 to 2012 and investigates the following topics: temporal analysis, effect of ENSO, antecedent rainfall linkages, population density, land use/land cover, and topography, placing them in the context of land surface heterogeneity. Spatial analysis of tornado touchdown locations reveals several spatial relationships with regard to cities, population density, land-use classification, and topography. A total of 61% of F0–F5 tornadoes and 43% of F0–F5 tornadoes in Indiana have touched down within 1 km of urban land use and land area classified as forest, respectively, suggesting the possible role of land-use surface roughness on tornado occurrences. The correlation of tornado touchdown points to population density suggests a moderate to strong relationship. A temporal analysis of tornado days shows favored time of day, months, seasons, and active tornado years. Tornado days for 1950–2012 are compared to antecedent rainfall and ENSO phases, which both show no discernible relationship with the average number of annual tornado days. Analysis of tornado touchdowns and topography does not indicate any strong relationship between tornado touchdowns and elevation. Results suggest a possible signature of land surface heterogeneity—particularly that around urban and forested land cover—in tornado climatology.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. e0166895 ◽  
Author(s):  
James B. Elsner ◽  
Thomas H. Jagger ◽  
Tyler Fricker

2017 ◽  
Vol 38 (5) ◽  
pp. 2478-2489 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiayi Chen ◽  
Xuhui Cai ◽  
Hongyu Wang ◽  
Ling Kang ◽  
Hongshen Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  

2012 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 106-123 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy S. Grams ◽  
Richard L. Thompson ◽  
Darren V. Snively ◽  
Jayson A. Prentice ◽  
Gina M. Hodges ◽  
...  

Abstract A sample of 448 significant tornado events was collected, representing a population of 1072 individual tornadoes across the contiguous United States from 2000 to 2008. Classification of convective mode was assessed from radar mosaics for each event with the majority classified as discrete cells compared to quasi-linear convective systems and clusters. These events were further stratified by season and region and compared with a null-tornado database of 911 significant hail and wind events that occurred without nearby tornadoes. These comparisons involved 1) environmental variables that have been used through the past 25–50 yr as part of the approach to tornado forecasting, 2) recent sounding-based parameter evaluations, and 3) convective mode. The results show that composite and kinematic parameters (whether at standard pressure levels or sounding derived), along with convective mode, provide greater discrimination than thermodynamic parameters between significant tornado versus either significant hail or wind events that occurred in the absence of nearby tornadoes.


2016 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 1346-1364 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chahinez Ghernoug ◽  
Mahfoud Djezzar ◽  
Hassane Naji ◽  
Abdelkarim Bouras

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to numerically study the double-diffusive natural convection within an eccentric horizontal cylindrical annulus filled with a Newtonian fluid. The annulus walls are maintained at uniform temperatures and concentrations so as to induce aiding thermal and mass buoyancy forces within the fluid. For that, this simulation span a moderate range of thermal Rayleigh number (100RaT100,000), Lewis (0.1Le10), buoyancy ratio (0N5) and Prandtl number (Pr=0.71) to examine their effects on flow motion and heat and mass transfers. Design/methodology/approach – A finite volume method in conjunction with the successive under-relaxation algorithm has been developed to solve the bipolar equations. These are written in dimensionless form in terms of vorticity, stream function, temperature and concentration. Beforehand, the implemented computer code has been validated through already published findings in the literature. The isotherms, streamlines and iso-concentrations are exhibited for various values of Rayleigh and Lewis numbers, and buoyancy ratio. In addition, heat and mass transfer rates in the annulus are translated in terms of Nusslet and Sherwood numbers along the enclosure’s sides. Findings – It is observed that, for the range of parameters considered here, the results show that the average Sherwood number increases with, while the average Nusselt number slightly dips as the Lewis number increases. It is also found that, under the convective mode, the local Nusselt number (or Sherwood) increases with the buoyancy ratio. Likewise, according to Lewis number’s value, the flow pattern is either symmetric and stable or asymmetric and random. Besides that, the heat transfer is transiting from a conductive mode to a convective mode with increasing the thermal Rayleigh number, and the flow structure and the rates of heat and mass transfer are significantly influenced by this parameter. Research limitations/implications – The range of the Rayleigh number considered here covers only the laminar case, with some constant parameters, namely the Prandtl number (Pr = 0.71), and the tilt angle (α=90°). The analysis here is only valid for steady, two-dimensional, laminar and aiding flow within an eccentric horizontal cylindrical annulus. This motivates further investigations involving other relevant parameters as N (opposite flows), Ra, Pr, Le, the eccentricity, the tilt angle, etc. Practical implications – An original framework for handling the double-diffusive natural convection within annuli is available, based on the bipolar equations. In addition, the achievement of this work could help researchers design thermal systems supported by annulus passages. Applications of the results can be of value in various arrangements such as storage of liquefied gases, electronic cable cooling systems, nuclear reactors, underground disposal of nuclear wastes, manifolds of solar energy collectors, etc. Originality/value – Given the geometry concerned, the bipolar coordinates have been used to set the inner and outer walls boundary conditions properly without interpolation. In addition, since studies on double-diffusive natural convection in annuli are lacking, the obtained results may be of interest to handle other configurations (e.g., elliptical-shaped speakers) with other boundary conditions.


2021 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 932-940
Author(s):  
Jashanpreet Singh ◽  
Chanpreet Singh

This paper deals with the numerical investigation of the convective mode of heat transfer across a vertical tube. Experiments were carried out using air as a fluid in a closed room by achieving a steady-state condition. Implicit scheme of finite difference method was adopted to numerically simulate the free convection phenomenon across vertical tube using LINUX based UBUNTU package. Numerical data were collected in the form of velocity, temperature profiles, boundary layer thickness, Nusselt number (Nu), Rayleigh's number (Ra), and heat transfer coefficient. The results of the Nusselt number showed a good agreement with the previous studies. Results data of heat transfer coefficient indicate that there were some minor heat losses due to radiation of brass tube and curvature of the tube.


2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 370-378 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksandr Zhilin ◽  
Aleksandr Zhilin ◽  
Aleksandr Fedorov ◽  
Aleksandr Fedorov ◽  
Dmitry Grebenshchikov ◽  
...  

The article is devoted to the dynamics of sunflower cake drying in a fundamentally new acousto-convective way. Unlike the traditional (thermo-convective) method, the method proposed allows extracting moisture from porous materials without supplying heat to the sample. Thermo-vacuum drying helped to determine the absolute and relative initial moisture for the analysed samples of the sunflower cake, which equaled 313.1% and 75.8%, respectively. The kinetic curves for drying by thermo- and acousto-convective methods were obtained and analysed. A study of the acousto-convective drying of sunflower cake showed that the rate of moisture extraction depended on the resonating frequency, while there is an optimal mode in which drying proceeds from two to three times more intensively. In thermo-convective drying of sunflower cake, increasing the temperature of the drying stream twice (from 74.2°C to 127°C) reduces the duration of drying to a final absolute humidity of 40% three times. Comparing the thermo-convective and acousto-convective drying methods showed that twice as much moisture was removed from the samples dried by the (ACDP) with a flow frequency of 790 Hz and at room temperature for a 30-minute interval as with thermal convective drying with a working flow temperature of 127°C. The relaxation mathematical model used to describe the drying phenomenon and the experimental data for sunflower cake drying allows obtaining the quantitative parameters characterizing different modes and methods of drying the samples under study. The article analyses a discrete drying regime that contributes to increasing the efficiency of the acousto-convective mode of moisture extraction.


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