<b><i>OBJECTIVE</i></b><i> </i>Despite
technological advances, results from various clinical trials repeatedly showed
that many individuals with type 1 diabetes (T1D) do not achieve their glycemic
goals. One of the major challenges in disease management is the administration
of an accurate amount of insulin for each meal which will match the expected
postprandial glycemic response (PPGR).
<p><b><i>RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS</i></b><i> </i>We
recruited individuals with T1D using continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) and
continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII) devices simultaneously to a
prospective cohort and profiled them for 2 weeks. Participants were asked to report real-time dietary intake using a designated mobile app.
We measured their PPGRs and devised machine-learning
algorithms for PPGR prediction, which integrate glucose measurements, insulin
dosages, dietary habits, blood parameters, anthropometrics, exercise, and gut
microbiota. Data of the PPGR of 1,057 healthy individuals to 47,863 meals were
also integrated into the model. The performance of the models was evaluated
using 10-fold cross validation.</p>
<p><b><i>RESULTS</i></b><i> </i>121
individuals with T1D, 75 adults and 46 children, were included in the study.
PPGR to 6,377 meals was measured. Our PPGR prediction model substantially
outperforms a baseline model emulating standard of care (correlation of R=0.59
compared to R=0.40 for predicted and observed PPGR respectively, p <10<sup>−10</sup>). The model was robust across different subpopulations. Feature
attribution analysis revealed that glucose levels at meal initiation, glucose
trend 30 minutes prior to meal, meal carbohydrate content and meal’s
carbohydrate/fat ratio were the most influential features to the model. </p>
<p><b><i>CONCLUSIONS</i></b><i> </i>Our
model enables a more accurate prediction of PPGR and therefore may allow a
better adjustment of the required insulin dosage for meals. It can be further
implemented in closed-loop systems and may lead to rationally designed
nutritional interventions personally tailored for individuals with T1D based on
meals with expected low glycemic response. </p>