EXPRESS: The Impact of Historical Price Information on Purchase Deferral

In this paper, the authors examine how historical price information influences consumers’ decision to defer a purchase. They focus on two aspects of historical price information: the direction and the frequency of past price changes. The authors advance a theoretical framework which postulates that the interaction between these two factor shapes consumers’ decisions to buy now versus later. Controlling for the total magnitude of price changes, the authors propose that consumers are more likely to defer purchase when the price of the product has previously increased compared to when the price has decreased. Importantly, the authors hypothesize that this effect is more pronounced when consumers observe a single large change in price (e.g., an increase of $100 versus a decrease of $100) compared to when they observe multiple smaller changes that establish a trend (e.g., four decreases of $25 versus four increases of $25). The authors argue that these effects are driven by differences in consumers’ expectations about future prices. They test their predictions, as well as two moderators of the proposed effects—the monotonicity and the timing of price changes—in six well-powered pre-registered experimental studies (N = 5,713) using both hypothetical and actual purchases.

Selection of Variables in Data Envelopment Analysis for Evaluation of Stock Performance

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is a relative measurement technique used to evaluate the efficiencies of a homogeneous group of samples with multiple inputs and/or outputs. DEA can be highly effective when right variables are chosen. The objective of this study is to identify the most appropriate variables for DEA to evaluate stock performance and find the efficient ones from a pool of stocks. Evaluation of stocks are carried out either by assessing their financial strength or by assessing their past price behaviour in the secondary market or both. In any case, it is imperative to use suitable variables to evaluate the performance of stocks. For this purpose, three different combinations of variables were tested on 69 non-financial stocks listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE), which were selected based on their market capitalization. The results obtained suggest that all the three sets of variables taken for the study help in the identification of efficient stocks. The average returns of the stocks selected in all the three cases are higher than the market return. Among the three sets, stocks identified using the past price behaviour give a higher return when compared to the other two sets. The study can help academicians and investors to percolate efficient stocks from a large pool of stocks. The selected stocks can be further analysed to construct an effective portfolio.

Downtrend of banking sectors using technical analysis

The Banking industry plays a very significant role in the economy and the development of a country. It is important to our nation’s economy as it caters to the need of credit for all the section of the nation. In this paper, we are focusing on the stocks of Yes Bank Limited, Axis Bank Limited and ICICI Bank Limited and analyze them technically. Using technical analysis, we could predict the future price movements of stocks by examining the present and the past price movements of stocks. It has many tools and indicators like SMA, EMA, RSI, MACD and P&L which are used for forecasting the future stock price and also identify the pattern, trend and it directs when to buy and sell stocks.

Does Medicare Reimbursement Drive Up Drug Launch Prices?

Medicare reimburses health care providers for the drugs they administer. Since 2005, it has reimbursed based on the past price of the drug. Reimbursement on past prices could motivate manufacturers to set higher launch prices because providers become less sensitive to price and because provider reimbursement is higher if past prices were higher. Using data on drug launch prices between 1999 and 2010, we estimate that reimbursement based on past prices caused launch prices to rise dramatically. The evidence is consistent with the 2018 claim from Medicare's administrator that it “creates a perverse incentive for manufacturers to set higher prices.”

Past price changes, trading volume and prediction of portfolio returns

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the profitability of investment strategies based on past price changes and trading volumes. Design/methodology/approach – Data are employed from January 1998 to December 2011 for select emerging markets. Portfolios are formed on the basis of past information on prices and/or volumes. Unrestricted and risk adjusted returns for sample portfolios are analyzed. The risk models employed in study are Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), Fama-French (F-F) Model and Fama-French augmented models. Findings – Price momentum patterns are observed for Brazil, India, South Africa and South Korea, while there are reversals in Indonesia and China. Low-volume stocks outperform high-volume stocks for all sample countries except China. Further, volume and price based bivariate strategies do a better job than univariate strategies in case of India, South Africa and South Korea. The past price and volume patterns in stock returns are not fully explained by CAPM as well as the F-F Model. Price and volume momentum factors do play a role in explaining some of these return patterns. Finally, the unexplained returns seem to be an outcome of investor under or overreaction to past information. The sources of price and volume momentum seem to be partly risk based and partly behavioral. Originality/value – The study analyzes combined role of price and volume in portfolio formation with post holding analysis. The work is useful for global portfolio managers, policy makers, market regulators and the academic community. The study contributes to asset pricing and behavioral finance literature for emerging markets.

Pricing European options in a delay model with jumps

In this paper, we extend the delay option pricing formula proposed by Arriojas et al. (2007) by adding a jump term in the price dynamics equations. We believe our model provides an excellent environment to price European options as it has the ability to incorporate jumps as well as it depends on the past price behaviors.