Predicting bitcoin price movements using sentiment analysis: a machine learning approach

Purpose Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC) attracted a lot of attention in recent months due to their unprecedented price fluctuations. This paper aims to propose a new method for predicting the direction of BTC price using linear discriminant analysis (LDA) together with sentiment analysis. Design/methodology/approach Concretely, the authors train an LDA-based classifier that uses the current BTC price information and BTC news announcements headlines to forecast the next-day direction of BTC prices. The authors compare the results with a Support Vector Machine (SVM) model and random guess approach. The use of BTC price information and news announcements related to crypto enables us to value the importance of these different sources and types of information. Findings Relative to the LDA results, the SVM model was more accurate in predicting BTC next day’s price movement. All models yielded better forecasts of an increase in tomorrow’s BTC price compared to forecasting a decrease in the crypto price. The inclusion of news sentiment resulted in the highest forecast accuracy of 0.585 on the test data, which is superior to a random guess. The LDA (SVM) model with asset specific (news sentiment and asset specific) input features ranked first within their respective model classifiers, suggesting both BTC news sentiment and asset specific are prized factors in predicting tomorrow’s price direction. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to analyze the potential effect of crypto-related sentiment and BTC specific news on BTC’s price using LDA and sentiment analysis.

How Many 'Clicks' Does it Take? Finding Price Information on New Zealand Lawyers' Websites

This article examines price transparency in New Zealand's civil legal services market and compares the civil legal services market characteristics to those of other jurisdictions. The current law does not incentivise providers within the legal services market to communicate price information to consumers searching for a provider. The researcher utilised a web-sweep method to assess how New Zealand law firms that provide dispute resolution services and employment advocates share information through their websites. The web-sweep covered the websites of 96 New Zealand law firms and 30 New Zealand employment advocates. The author assessed the ease with which prospective consumers could navigate and understand price-related information. The results demonstrated that in a majority of instances, price information is unclear and uncertain. It is therefore not comparable between providers. Consumers in New Zealand face a high search cost when looking for prices and deciding on a legal service provider. They are unable to make a meaningful price comparison between providers of dispute resolution services before engaging them. Stronger regulation of providers (lawyers and employment advocates) to require the display of pricing information would lower search costs for consumers and increase competition.

Does the Capital Market Opening Improve the Price Discovery Efficiency of Stock Market? An Empirical Research Based on Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect

Whether capital market opening improves the price discovery efficiency of stock market is an important issue. Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect (hereafter, SHKSC) is a milestone event in the opening up of China’s capital market. Based on SHKSC, using the method of PSM + DID, we study the impact of capital market opening on the price discovery efficiency from two dimensions-stock price information content and price reaction speed to information. Our research shows that capital market opening did not increase stock price information content, but speed up the reaction of price to information. Therefore, capital market opening improves capital market’s price discovery efficiency in terms of response speed of stock price to information. Further analysis shows that capital market opening affects stock price reaction speed through improving market information environment and reducing insider trading, but it has not yet had a substantial impact on listed companies’ earnings quality, which is the main participant in the capital market, and therefore has failed to influence the stock price information content. In order to maximize the effectiveness of capital market opening, it is necessary to introduce more effective policies to improve the information disclosure quality of listed firms and reduce the level of insider trading.

A Scenario-based Model for Resource Allocation with Price Information

In this paper, we consider the problem of allocating resources among Decision Making Units (DMUs). Regarding the concept of overall (cost) efficiency, we consider three different scenarios and formulate three Resource Allocation (RA) models correspondingly. In the first scenario, we assume that overall efficiency of each unit remains unchanged. The second scenario is related to the case where none of overall efficiency scores is deteriorated. We improve the overall efficiencies by a pre-determined percentage in the last scenario. We formulate Linear Programming problems to allocate resources in all scenarios. All three scenarios are illustrated through numerical and empirical examples.

EXPRESS: The Impact of Historical Price Information on Purchase Deferral

In this paper, the authors examine how historical price information influences consumers’ decision to defer a purchase. They focus on two aspects of historical price information: the direction and the frequency of past price changes. The authors advance a theoretical framework which postulates that the interaction between these two factor shapes consumers’ decisions to buy now versus later. Controlling for the total magnitude of price changes, the authors propose that consumers are more likely to defer purchase when the price of the product has previously increased compared to when the price has decreased. Importantly, the authors hypothesize that this effect is more pronounced when consumers observe a single large change in price (e.g., an increase of $100 versus a decrease of $100) compared to when they observe multiple smaller changes that establish a trend (e.g., four decreases of $25 versus four increases of $25). The authors argue that these effects are driven by differences in consumers’ expectations about future prices. They test their predictions, as well as two moderators of the proposed effects—the monotonicity and the timing of price changes—in six well-powered pre-registered experimental studies (N = 5,713) using both hypothetical and actual purchases.

Pembentukan Harga Cabai Merah Keriting Secara Teoritis Dan Empiris

High demand for curly red chilies will cause prices to rise while production cannot fulfill consumer desires. This situation was caused by an imbalance of supply-demand, where the supply-demand imbalance can be caused by several changes such as changes in production technology, population growth or number of consumers, changes in income levels per capita and season (., Asriani, and Rasyid 2012). Research data as research subjects were 1) Price time series data, curly red chili production at production centers 2) Supply data of curly red chilies from Cikajang Garut Regency, Caringin Central Market, Gedebage Main Market and Kramat Jati Central Market, 3) Time series data price, production, supply, government policies and supporting data from the West Java Food Crops Agriculture Office, and related agencies. The data used were time series data and supporting data from: Price information centers in production centers, main markets and price information at the West Java Food Crops Agricultural Service, for each marketing agency data was carried out by tracing the marketing chain. The research analysis was carried out in several ways, namely theoretically and empirically at the production center and the wholesale market described descriptively. Theoretical price formation can be explained that prices was formed based on supply and demand. Prices derived from price formation can come from the District or Provincial Agriculture Office and be informed from the Commodity Price Information Center in production centers and forwarded to farmers, dealers, traders and wholesale markets. Price information can be conveyed to between market players, so that farmers and market players know your margin and profit. Empirically, it can be seen that price formation in production centers was not seen to be formed from supply and demand. The price in the wholesale market is the price determined by market players in the wholesale market based on the amount of supply entering the main market and price information between the parent markets. The information center at PIKJ does not have production data from production centers so that when the price hike occurs, the version of the Ministry of Agriculture is imports of chilies ("specifically for curly red chilies, there are no imports"). Imports indicate that the production / supply decreases without knowing the actual amount of production, in this case the price information speed was faster than the production data that was informed per year so that prices in farmers still do not increase, meaning that farmers do not enjoy price increases, in this case it can be said that market mechanism was not working well.

ProQuest Historical Newspapers: Leftist Newspapers and Periodicals

ProQuest Historical Newspapers: Leftist Newspapers and Periodicals is a source for leftist publications (mostly newspapers), largely published in the twentieth century. Here, the user can access articles in PDF format from 156 national and international publications. Navigating this database and the documents therein can be easily done, but articles cannot be magnified or reduced, which may prove problematic with PDFs of old newspapers. Database content can be found through browsing or by using a basic and/or advanced search. The browse and basic search options here are understandable, but the advanced search is not self-explanatory and can possibly confuse the user. As a consequence, a new user of this database will probably benefit from instruction in its use from either the vendor or someone else familiar with this resource. However, when this search function is used properly it can produce numerous, on-point results for any query. The same is true of the basic search and browsing features, though they tend to produce larger lists of results that are less on-point than the advanced search. The vendor did not provide specific price information for this review, only indicating that pricing is determined by an institution's size and number of users. As this provides potential subscribers with very little insight into the cost of acquiring this resource, its advised that they contact ProQuest for a price quote tailored to their own institution. Its licensing agreement is the same as those used for all ProQuest databases and is average in its composition (though somewhat longer than average). The quality and quantity of content in this resource is notable, and it will certainly be of use to those looking for articles from leftist newspapers and periodicals. However, the definition of “leftist” here may be problematic for some users! Communist and Socialist publications are certainly available in this database, but those for Anarchists, Social Democrats, and other leftists are not.

Dynamic Sales Price Control Model for Exclusive Exquisite Products within a Time Interval

When information regarding the effective evaluation of the value of exquisite products is lacking, the market demand function for such products at a given time point is affected by the diffusion of historical transaction price information before the time point. This is because historical transaction prices play an active role in influencing the internal reference price (IRP) of customers, and the continuous diffusion of historical transaction price information leads to the continuous correction, adjustment, and updating of customers’ IRPs. Given the varying rates of such information diffusion, the speed at which customers adjust their IRPs also varies across individuals and contexts. By considering the exponential distribution of potential customers’ IRPs as an example to establish the dynamic demand function that considers the effect of historical transaction prices, this paper discusses the effect of different information diffusion rates on the demand function at a time point. On the basis of this demand function, a sales price control model that maximizes the discounted profitability for businesses in the patent term of an exquisite product is then constructed to provide businesses with an operation method to cultivate prices and increase profits.

Competing Sales Channels with Captive Consumers

We study strategic interactions in markets in which firms sell to consumers both directly and via a competitive channel (CC), such as a price comparison website or marketplace, where multiple sellers’ offers are visible at once. We ask how a CC’s size influences market outcomes when some consumers have limited price information. A bigger CC means more consumers compare prices, increasing within-channel competition. However, we show such seemingly pro-competitive developments can raise prices and harm consumers by weakening between-channel competition.