Traumas and Tyranny?

This chapter seeks out the origins of conspiracism in the former Soviet Union. It critiques arguments that conspiracism in Russia (and in other successor parts of the Russian Empire) is best explained by the region’s troubled historical development. It argues that history does matter, not by preordaining a country’s fate, but by providing a set of reference points and tropes that can be invoked under certain circumstances. It then examines challenges the region’s leaders faced in more recent times that might trigger a conspiratorial interpretation, focusing on two major preoccupations: political control and sovereignty. The chapter closes with a narrative account of the 42 critical events sampled to compile the database of conspiracy claims, laying the groundwork for the next chapter.

Of Power and Peril

This chapter provides an explanatory framework for why regimes promote conspiracy claims, based on the insight that because conspiracy theories are theories about power, it makes sense to foreground politics—the opportunities and constraints facing politicians as they consider what stories to tell about the world. It conceptualizes conspiracy theories as a form of propaganda and summarizes theories about conspiracism in politics. The author argues that claiming conspiracy can signal knowledge and prescience, and details three factors associated with the production and circulation of conspiracy claims: destabilizing events, political competition, and cross-border connections and alignments. Regimes may use conspiracy claims intermittently or may construct broad conspiracy narratives and strategically disseminate them over time, but there are potential hazards for regimes that rely excessively on conspiracism. Finally, the chapter outlines the features of three conspiratorial modes: sporadic official conspiracism, competitive conspiracism, and sustained official conspiracism.

Disaffection, Disinformation, and Democracy

This chapter reviews the main findings of the book and then shifts the focus beyond the post-Soviet region. It first discusses what the argument contributes to ongoing debates in political science about how regimes spread and manipulate information. It then considers the evolution of conspiracism in two imperfect democracies: Turkey, which bears a surface resemblance to cases covered in this book, and then the United States, a country with a venerable history of popular belief in conspiracy theories. Despite being a well-established democracy, recent developments indicate that conspiracy claims have moved fully into the political mainstream. It then discusses the implications of Russia’s export of conspiracy theories, a practice initially intended to influence opinion in the near abroad but then expanded globally. Finally, it considers the implications of this book’s arguments for democracy and governance today.

Citizen Cynics

This chapter uses focus groups in Georgia and Kazakhstan to examine not only how ordinary people respond to conspiracy theories, but how they think about power more generally. Participants were receptive to a wide range of conspiracy claims, whether promoted by governments or not. Georgians endorsed a wide array of plots and perpetrators, an openness that reflects the country’s unbridled intrigue and wealth of political information available. Kazakhstanis speculated about how power operates in their opaque political system and delivered Russian-inflected geopolitical analysis. Citizens who accepted conspiracies were motivated by cynicism toward political authority, which came from personal experience. The analysis suggests that politicians who aim to win support by claiming conspiracies face a dilemma: the people who are most willing to agree with conspiracy claims are also suspicious of those who seek advantage by spreading them.

The Emergence and Ascendancy of Conspiracism in Russia

This chapter explains Russia’s transformation from a regime of competitive conspiracism to one of sustained official conspiracism. It demonstrates that Russia’s leaders adopted conspiratorial rhetoric reactively and intermittently, in response to politically resonant events. It took a series of critical setbacks in 2004 and 2005—threats to sovereignty, challenges to Putin’s narrative about rebuilding Russia, and deteriorating relations with the West—to cause the shift. It analyzes four events that took place under differing circumstances and that correspond to relative peaks and valleys of conspiracism: the 1996 presidential election, the 2004 terrorist attack in Beslan, the 2005 anti-privatization protests, and the 2014 Euromaidan protests. Examining conspiracy claims in context reveals that Kremlin officials initially selectively embraced the conspiracy narratives of nationalist pundits and intellectuals. Later, the Kremlin adopted a strategy of sustained conspiracism to proactively frame those threats, a practice that became all-consuming by 2014.

Shadowy Deeds in Russia’s Shadow

This chapter examines Ukraine, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, and Belarus to illustrate how political competition and geopolitical ties affected the frequency and content of conspiracy claims. It uses quantitative data to show broad trends, and case studies of individual countries to illustrate the mechanisms at work. The analysis highlights how conspiracy claims emerge from the real preoccupations of politicians and commonly held beliefs about geopolitics. Unlike Russia, in none of these cases was conspiracy invoked consistently for offensive purposes. Instead conspiracy claims came about reactively and intermittently, though at moments of high intrigue or anxiety they could appear all-consuming.

The Lay of the Land

This chapter explores the database of conspiracy claims in order to lay the groundwork for the analysis in future chapters. It begins by describing how the database was created and presenting an overview of its contents, including simple graphs showing where conspiracies (supposedly) take place, the nationalities of the accusers, and the identities of the perpetrators. To give a sense of the stories the claims tell, it homes in on three narrative elements of conspiracy—goals, actions, and logics—and provides examples. Finally, it breaks down the data according to combinations of accusers and perpetrators. Perusing the conspiracy claims reveals how they emerge from quotidian political realities, but in a milieu pervaded by intrigue, insecurity, and uncertainty. These claims tell a story—actually, several—about politics, but revolve around two questions: Who is doing what to whom and what do the perpetrators hope to accomplish?

Connecting the Dots

This chapter analyzes the database of conspiracy claims to understand the purposes conspiracy theories serve for the people who promote them. First, it examines the data as a whole to check whether the frequency of conspiracy claims rose over two decades, and if so, what events were most responsible for the rise. Second, it asks how critical events affect the manifestation and timing of conspiracy claims. Third, it looks at the influence of geopolitical alignments and rivalries. Fourth, it explores the domestic realm and shows how regime type affects conspiracy claims. Finally, it examines how heads of state and other authority figures contribute to the overall patterns of conspiracism in the region. In summary, the chapter demonstrates how conspiracism can be an outgrowth of palpable threats, political competition, and developments abroad.

Introduction

This chapter introduces the book. It notes the rising prominence of conspiracy theories globally and argues that when governments weaponize conspiracy claims, there are important implications for democracy and stability. It explains the importance of examining conspiracy claims in their political context. The book explores the reasons that regimes make conspiracy claims, how they sustain them over time, and what effects those claims have on politics and society. The chapter then summarizes the theoretical framework and introduces the data: an original collection of over 1,500 conspiracy claims from across the former Soviet Union, two national surveys, and 12 focus groups. It discusses the definition and coding of conspiracy claims. Finally, it argues that the lessons from this book, which explain how conspiracy theories are used in a part of the world where democracy came late—or never arrived—can be instructive for concerned citizens everywhere.

The Consequences of Conspiracism

This chapter analyzes the results of a survey of 1,000 respondents in each Georgia and Kazakhstan, assessing attitudes toward generic and specific conspiracy theories and responses to two experimental vignettes. The analysis shows that most people are willing to give conspiracy theories the benefit of the doubt, with Georgians being more conspiratorial overall. Yet politicians who promote conspiracy theories are not automatically believed or rewarded politically. In an ironic twist, the success of conspiracy mongers in winning popular support is limited by the very cynicism that conspiracy theories produce in the first place. Finally, conspiracy believers are different from the general population, being more alienated from politics but more socially engaged.