Cardiovascular risk prediction in type 2 diabetes: a comparison of 22 risk scores in primary care settings

Aims/hypothesis We aimed to compare the performance of risk prediction scores for CVD (i.e., coronary heart disease and stroke), and a broader definition of CVD including atrial fibrillation and heart failure (CVD+), in individuals with type 2 diabetes. Methods Scores were identified through a literature review and were included irrespective of the type of predicted cardiovascular outcome or the inclusion of individuals with type 2 diabetes. Performance was assessed in a contemporary, representative sample of 168,871 UK-based individuals with type 2 diabetes (age ≥18 years without pre-existing CVD+). Missing observations were addressed using multiple imputation. Results We evaluated 22 scores: 13 derived in the general population and nine in individuals with type 2 diabetes. The Systemic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) CVD rule derived in the general population performed best for both CVD (C statistic 0.67 [95% CI 0.67, 0.67]) and CVD+ (C statistic 0.69 [95% CI 0.69, 0.70]). The C statistic of the remaining scores ranged from 0.62 to 0.67 for CVD, and from 0.64 to 0.69 for CVD+. Calibration slopes (1 indicates perfect calibration) ranged from 0.38 (95% CI 0.37, 0.39) to 0.74 (95% CI 0.72, 0.76) for CVD, and from 0.41 (95% CI 0.40, 0.42) to 0.88 (95% CI 0.86, 0.90) for CVD+. A simple recalibration process considerably improved the performance of the scores, with calibration slopes now ranging between 0.96 and 1.04 for CVD. Scores with more predictors did not outperform scores with fewer predictors: for CVD+, QRISK3 (19 variables) had a C statistic of 0.68 (95% CI 0.68, 0.69), compared with SCORE CVD (six variables) which had a C statistic of 0.69 (95% CI 0.69, 0.70). Scores specific to individuals with diabetes did not discriminate better than scores derived in the general population: the UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) scores performed significantly worse than SCORE CVD (p value <0.001). Conclusions/interpretation CVD risk prediction scores could not accurately identify individuals with type 2 diabetes who experienced a CVD event in the 10 years of follow-up. All 22 evaluated models had a comparable and modest discriminative ability. Graphical abstract

A novel diabetes typology: towards precision diabetology from pathogenesis to treatment

The current classification of diabetes, based on hyperglycaemia, islet-directed antibodies and some insufficiently defined clinical features, does not reflect differences in aetiological mechanisms and in the clinical course of people with diabetes. This review discusses evidence from recent studies addressing the complexity of diabetes by proposing novel subgroups (subtypes) of diabetes. The most widely replicated and validated approach identified, in addition to severe autoimmune diabetes, four subgroups designated severe insulin-deficient diabetes, severe insulin-resistant diabetes, mild obesity-related diabetes and mild age-related diabetes subgroups. These subgroups display distinct patterns of clinical features, disease progression and onset of comorbidities and complications, with severe insulin-resistant diabetes showing the highest risk for cardiovascular, kidney and fatty liver diseases. While it has been suggested that people in these subgroups would benefit from stratified treatments, RCTs are required to assess the clinical utility of any reclassification effort. Several methodological and practical issues also need further study: the statistical approach used to define subgroups and derive recommendations for diabetes care; the stability of subgroups over time; the optimal dataset (e.g. phenotypic vs genotypic) for reclassification; the transethnic generalisability of findings; and the applicability in clinical routine care. Despite these open questions, the concept of a new classification of diabetes has already allowed researchers to gain more insight into the colourful picture of diabetes and has stimulated progress in this field so that precision diabetology may become reality in the future. Graphical abstract

A multigenerational study on phenotypic consequences of the most common causal variant of HNF1A-MODY

Aims/hypothesis Systematic studies on the phenotypic consequences of variants causal of HNF1A-MODY are rare. Our aim was to assess the phenotype of carriers of a single HNF1A variant and genetic and clinical factors affecting the clinical spectrum. Methods We conducted a family-based multigenerational study by comparing heterozygous carriers of the HNF1A p.(Gly292fs) variant with the non-carrier relatives irrespective of diabetes status. During more than two decades, 145 carriers and 131 non-carriers from 12 families participated in the study, and 208 underwent an OGTT at least once. We assessed the polygenic risk score for type 2 diabetes, age at onset of diabetes and measures of body composition, as well as plasma glucose, serum insulin, proinsulin, C-peptide, glucagon and NEFA response during the OGTT. Results Half of the carriers remained free of diabetes at 23 years, one-third at 33 years and 13% even at 50 years. The median age at diagnosis was 21 years (IQR 17–35). We could not identify clinical factors affecting the age at conversion; sex, BMI, insulin sensitivity or parental carrier status had no significant effect. However, for 1 SD unit increase of a polygenic risk score for type 2 diabetes, the predicted age at diagnosis decreased by 3.2 years. During the OGTT, the carriers had higher levels of plasma glucose and lower levels of serum insulin and C-peptide than the non-carriers. The carriers were also leaner than the non-carriers (by 5.0 kg, p=0.012, and by 2.1 kg/m2 units of BMI, p=2.2 × 10−4, using the first adult measurements) and, possibly as a result of insulin deficiency, demonstrated higher lipolytic activity (with medians of NEFA at fasting 621 vs 441 μmol/l, p=0.0039; at 120 min during an OGTT 117 vs 64 μmol/l, p=3.1 × 10−5). Conclusions/interpretation The most common causal variant of HNF1A-MODY, p.(Gly292fs), presents not only with hyperglycaemia and insulin deficiency, but also with increased lipolysis and markedly lower adult BMI. Serum insulin was more discriminative than C-peptide between carriers and non-carriers. A considerable proportion of carriers develop diabetes after young adulthood. Even among individuals with a monogenic form of diabetes, polygenic risk of diabetes modifies the age at onset of diabetes. Graphical abstract