scholarly journals Multiyear Composite View of Ozone Enhancements and Stratosphere-to-Troposphere Transport in Dry Intrusions of Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclones

2017 ◽  
Vol 122 (24) ◽  
pp. 13,436-13,457 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lyatt Jaeglé ◽  
Robert Wood ◽  
Krzysztof Wargan
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones ◽  
Dry Intrusions

scholarly journals The influence of solar wind on extratropical cyclones – Part 1: Wilcox effect revisited

2009 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Prikryl ◽  
V. Rušin ◽  
M. Rybanský
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Solar Wind ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Coronal Holes ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones ◽  
Sector Boundary ◽  
Speed Solar Wind ◽  
The Mean ◽  
High Speed Solar Wind

Abstract. A sun-weather correlation, namely the link between solar magnetic sector boundary passage (SBP) by the Earth and upper-level tropospheric vorticity area index (VAI), that was found by Wilcox et al. (1974) and shown to be statistically significant by Hines and Halevy (1977) is revisited. A minimum in the VAI one day after SBP followed by an increase a few days later was observed. Using the ECMWF ERA-40 re-analysis dataset for the original period from 1963 to 1973 and extending it to 2002, we have verified what has become known as the "Wilcox effect" for the Northern as well as the Southern Hemisphere winters. The effect persists through years of high and low volcanic aerosol loading except for the Northern Hemisphere at 500 mb, when the VAI minimum is weak during the low aerosol years after 1973, particularly for sector boundaries associated with south-to-north reversals of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) BZ component. The "disappearance" of the Wilcox effect was found previously by Tinsley et al. (1994) who suggested that enhanced stratospheric volcanic aerosols and changes in air-earth current density are necessary conditions for the effect. The present results indicate that the Wilcox effect does not require high aerosol loading to be detected. The results are corroborated by a correlation with coronal holes where the fast solar wind originates. Ground-based measurements of the green coronal emission line (Fe XIV, 530.3 nm) are used in the superposed epoch analysis keyed by the times of sector boundary passage to show a one-to-one correspondence between the mean VAI variations and coronal holes. The VAI is modulated by high-speed solar wind streams with a delay of 1–2 days. The Fourier spectra of VAI time series show peaks at periods similar to those found in the solar corona and solar wind time series. In the modulation of VAI by solar wind the IMF BZ seems to control the phase of the Wilcox effect and the depth of the VAI minimum. The mean VAI response to SBP associated with the north-to-south reversal of BZ is leading by up to 2 days the mean VAI response to SBP associated with the south-to-north reversal of BZ. For the latter, less geoeffective events, the VAI minimum deepens (with the above exception of the Northern Hemisphere low-aerosol 500-mb VAI) and the VAI maximum is delayed. The phase shift between the mean VAI responses obtained for these two subsets of SBP events may explain the reduced amplitude of the overall Wilcox effect. In a companion paper, Prikryl et al. (2009) propose a new mechanism to explain the Wilcox effect, namely that solar-wind-generated auroral atmospheric gravity waves (AGWs) influence the growth of extratropical cyclones. It is also observed that severe extratropical storms, explosive cyclogenesis and significant sea level pressure deepenings of extratropical storms tend to occur within a few days of the arrival of high-speed solar wind. These observations are discussed in the context of the proposed AGW mechanism as well as the previously suggested atmospheric electrical current (AEC) model (Tinsley et al., 1994), which requires the presence of stratospheric aerosols for a significant (Wilcox) effect.

scholarly journals A PV Perspective on the Vertical Structure of Mature Midlatitude Cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (2) ◽  
pp. 725-740 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jana Čampa ◽  
Heini Wernli
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Vertical Structure ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Vertical Cylinder ◽  
Mature Stage ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones ◽  
Surface Acting ◽  
Regional Variability ◽  
Stratospheric Intrusion

Abstract Development of extratropical cyclones can be seen as an interplay of three positive potential vorticity anomalies: an upper-level stratospheric intrusion, low-tropospheric diabatically produced potential vorticity (PV), and a warm anomaly at the surface acting as a surrogate PV anomaly. This study, based on the interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) dataset, quantifies the amplitude of the PV anomalies of mature extratropical cyclones in different regions in the Northern Hemisphere on a climatological basis. A tracking algorithm is applied to sea level pressure (SLP) fields to identify cyclone tracks. Surface potential temperature anomalies Δθ and vertical profiles of PV anomalies ΔPV are calculated at the time of the cyclones’ minimum SLP in a vertical cylinder around the surface cyclone center. To compare the cyclones’ characteristics they are grouped according to their location and intensity. Composite ΔPV profiles are calculated for each region and intensity class at the time of minimum SLP and during the cyclone intensification phase. In the mature stage all three anomalies are on average larger for intense than for weak winter cyclones [e.g., 0.6 versus 0.2 potential vorticity units (PVU; 1 PVU = 10−6 K kg−1 m2 s−1) at lower levels, and 1.5 versus 0.5 PVU at upper levels]. The regional variability of the cyclones’ vertical structure and the profile evolution is prominent (cyclones in some regions are more sensitive to the amplitude of a particular anomaly than in other regions). Values of Δθ and low-level ΔPV are on average larger in the western parts of the oceans than in the eastern parts. Results for summer are qualitatively similar, except for distinctively weaker surface Δθ values.

scholarly journals Thermodynamic Phase and Ice Cloud Properties in Northern Hemisphere Winter Extratropical Cyclones Observed by Aqua AIRS

2015 ◽  
Vol 54 (11) ◽  
pp. 2283-2303 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catherine M. Naud ◽  
Brian H. Kahn
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Frontal Region ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones ◽  
Ice Clouds ◽  
Ice Cloud ◽  
Cloud Properties ◽  
Hemisphere Winter ◽  
Thermodynamic Phase ◽  
Northern Hemisphere Winter

AbstractIce cloud properties in Northern Hemisphere winter extratropical cyclones are examined using the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), version 6, cloud products. The cloud thermodynamic phase product indicates that warm frontal clouds are dominated by ice, liquid-phase clouds occur outside of the warm frontal region, and supercooled or mixed-phase clouds are found in the southwestern quadrant of the cyclones. Stratiform ice clouds populate the warm frontal region and portions of the cold sector while convective ice clouds populate southeastern portions of the warm front and the southeastern quadrant. Total cloud cover is smaller in land cyclones than in ocean cyclones, especially in the southwestern quadrant and the warm frontal region. Ice cloud cover is less over land in the warm frontal region, because land cyclones are generally weaker and drier than ocean cyclones. The impact of cyclone average precipitable water (PW) and the magnitude of 850-hPa vertical ascent ω850 on the thermodynamic phase, occurrence of stratiform or convective ice cloud, ice particle effective diameter, optical thickness, and cloud-top temperature are discussed. When comparing land and ocean cyclones with similar PW and ω850, ice cloud coverage is found to be greater over land. Convective ice cloud occurs more often and is deeper over land. Supercooled cloud appears to persist to colder temperatures over ocean than over land, especially in the warm frontal region. These results suggest that, over land, ice cloud formation in warm fronts is possibly more efficient because of a greater aerosol amount from local or regional sources.

scholarly journals TIGGE: Comparison of the Prediction of Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclones by Different Ensemble Prediction Systems

2010 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 819-836 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lizzie S. R. Froude
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Propagation Speed ◽  
Research Programme ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
And Control

Abstract The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) is a World Weather Research Programme project. One of its main objectives is to enhance collaboration on the development of ensemble prediction between operational centers and universities by increasing the availability of ensemble prediction system (EPS) data for research. This study analyzes the prediction of Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones by nine different EPSs archived as part of the TIGGE project for the 6-month time period of 1 February 2008–31 July 2008, which included a sample of 774 cyclones. An objective feature tracking method has been used to identify and track the cyclones along the forecast trajectories. Forecast verification statistics have then been produced [using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analysis as the truth] for cyclone position, intensity, and propagation speed, showing large differences between the different EPSs. The results show that the ECMWF ensemble mean and control have the highest level of skill for all cyclone properties. The Japanese Meteorological Administration (JMA), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Met Office (UKMO), and the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) have 1 day less skill for the position of cyclones throughout the forecast range. The relative performance of the different EPSs remains the same for cyclone intensity except for NCEP, which has larger errors than for position. NCEP, the Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC), and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) all have faster intensity error growth in the earlier part of the forecast. They are also very underdispersive and significantly underpredict intensities, perhaps due to the comparatively low spatial resolutions of these EPSs not being able to accurately model the tilted structure essential to cyclone growth and decay. There is very little difference between the levels of skill of the ensemble mean and control for cyclone position, but the ensemble mean provides an advantage over the control for all EPSs except CPTEC in cyclone intensity and there is an advantage for propagation speed for all EPSs. ECMWF and JMA have an excellent spread–skill relationship for cyclone position. The EPSs are all much more underdispersive for cyclone intensity and propagation speed than for position, with ECMWF and CMC performing best for intensity and CMC performing best for propagation speed. ECMWF is the only EPS to consistently overpredict cyclone intensity, although the bias is small. BoM, NCEP, UKMO, and CPTEC significantly underpredict intensity and, interestingly, all the EPSs underpredict the propagation speed, that is, the cyclones move too slowly on average in all EPSs.

scholarly journals How much Northern Hemisphere precipitation is associated with extratropical cyclones?

2012 ◽  
Vol 39 (24) ◽  
Author(s):  
M. K. Hawcroft ◽  
L. C. Shaffrey ◽  
K. I. Hodges ◽  
H. F. Dacre
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones

scholarly journals The Role of Warm Conveyor Belts for the Intensification of Extratropical Cyclones in Northern Hemisphere Winter

2016 ◽  
Vol 73 (10) ◽  
pp. 3997-4020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanin Binder ◽  
Maxi Boettcher ◽  
Hanna Joos ◽  
Heini Wernli
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones ◽  
Cyclone Center ◽  
Explosive Cyclones ◽  
Conveyor Belts ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Hemisphere Winter ◽  
Warm Conveyor Belts ◽  
Northern Hemisphere Winter

Abstract The role of warm conveyor belts (WCBs) and their associated positive low-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies are investigated for extratropical cyclones in Northern Hemisphere winter, using ERA-Interim and composite techniques. The Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.68 implies a moderate to strong correlation between cyclone intensification and WCB strength. Hereby, cyclone intensification is quantified by the normalized maximum 24-h central sea level pressure deepening and WCB strength by the WCB air mass associated with the cyclone’s 24-h period of strongest deepening. Explosively intensifying cyclones typically have strong WCBs and pronounced WCB-related PV production in the cyclone center; they are associated with a WCB of type W2, which ascends close to the cyclone center. Cyclones with similar WCB strength but weak intensification are either diabatic Rossby waves, which do not interact with an upper-level disturbance, or cyclones where much of the WCB-related PV production occurs far from the cyclone center and thereby does not contribute strongly to cyclone deepening (WCB of type W1, which ascends mainly along the cold front). The category of explosively intensifying cyclones with weak WCBs is inhomogeneous but often characterized by a very low tropopause or latent heating independent of WCBs. These findings reveal that (i) diabatic PV production in WCBs is essential for the intensification of many explosive cyclones, (ii) the importance of WCBs for cyclone development strongly depends on the location of the PV production relative to the cyclone center, and (iii) a minority of explosive cyclones is not associated with WCBs.

scholarly journals Impact of increasing resolution and a warmer climate on extreme weather from Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adrian J. Champion ◽  
Kevin I. Hodges ◽  
Lennart O. Bengtsson ◽  
Noel S. Keenlyside ◽  
Monika Esch
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones

scholarly journals Changing available energy for extratropical cyclones and associated convection in Northern Hemisphere summer

2019 ◽  
Vol 116 (10) ◽  
pp. 4105-4110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles G. Gertler ◽  
Paul A. O’Gorman
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Gradient ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Thermal Structure ◽  
Extratropical Cyclone ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Available Energy ◽  
The Mean

The circulation of the Northern Hemisphere extratropical troposphere has changed over recent decades, with marked decreases in extratropical cyclone activity and eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in summer and increases in the fraction of precipitation that is convective in all seasons. Decreasing EKE in summer is partly explained by a weakening meridional temperature gradient, but changes in vertical temperature gradients and increasing moisture also affect the mean available potential energy (MAPE), which is the energetic reservoir from which extratropical cyclones draw. Furthermore, the relation of changes in mean thermal structure and moisture to changes in convection associated with extratropical cyclones is poorly understood. Here we calculate trends in MAPE for the Northern extratropics in summer over the years 1979–2017, and we decompose MAPE into both convective and nonconvective components. Nonconvective MAPE decreased over this period, consistent with decreases in EKE and extratropical cyclone activity, but convective MAPE increased, implying an increase in the energy available to convection. Calculations with idealized atmospheres indicate that nonconvective and convective MAPE both increase with increasing mean surface temperature and decrease with decreasing meridional surface temperature gradient, but convective MAPE is relatively more sensitive to the increase in mean surface temperature. These results connect changes in the atmospheric mean state with changes in both large-scale and convective circulations, and they suggest that extratropical cyclones can weaken even as their associated convection becomes more energetic.

A review of past changes in extratropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere and what can be learned for the future

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph C. Raible ◽  
Joaquim G. Pinto ◽  
Patrick Ludwig ◽  
Martina Messmer
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones ◽  
The Future

scholarly journals TIGGE: Comparison of the Prediction of Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclones by Different Ensemble Prediction Systems

2011 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 388-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lizzie S. R. Froude
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Propagation Speed ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones ◽  
System Research ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Cyclone Tracking ◽  
Prediction Systems

Abstract The prediction of Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical cyclones by nine different ensemble prediction systems (EPSs), archived as part of The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE), has recently been explored using a cyclone-tracking approach. This paper provides a continuation of this work, extending the analysis to the Southern Hemisphere (SH). While the EPSs have larger error in all cyclone properties in the SH, the relative performance of the different EPSs remains broadly consistent between the two hemispheres. Some interesting differences are also shown. The Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA) EPS has a significantly lower level of performance in the SH compared to the NH. Previous NH results showed that the Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC) EPS underpredicts cyclone intensity. The results of this current study show that this bias is significantly larger in the SH. The CPTEC EPS also has very little spread in both hemispheres. As with the NH results, cyclone propagation speed is underpredicted by all the EPSs in the SH. To investigate this further, the bias was also computed for the ECMWF high-resolution deterministic forecast. The bias was significantly smaller than the lower-resolution ECMWF EPS.

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