Using limiting factors analysis to overcome the problem of long time horizons

2009 ◽  
Vol 2009 (122) ◽  
pp. 19-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raymond Gullison ◽  
Jared Hardner
Keyword(s):  
Limiting Factors ◽  
Factors Analysis ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Long Time

scholarly journals The decade after tomorrow: Estimation of discount rates from realistic temporal decisions over long time horizons

2021 ◽  
Vol 183 ◽  
pp. 158-174
Author(s):  
Patrick Lloyd-Smith ◽  
Wiktor Adamowicz ◽  
Alicia Entem ◽  
Eli P. Fenichel ◽  
Mani Rouhi Rad
Keyword(s):  
Discount Rates ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Long Time

scholarly journals Can Financial Engineering Cure Cancer?

2013 ◽  
Vol 103 (3) ◽  
pp. 406-411 ◽  
Author(s):  
David E Fagnan ◽  
Jose Maria Fernandez ◽  
Andrew W Lo ◽  
Roger M Stein
Keyword(s):  
Financial Engineering ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Debt Financing ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Private And Public ◽  
Public Equity ◽  
Highly Correlated

Traditional financing sources such as private and public equity may not be ideal for investment projects with low probabilities of success, long time horizons, and large capital requirements. Nevertheless, such projects, if not too highly correlated, may yield attractive risk-adjusted returns when combined into a single portfolio. Such “megafund” portfolios may be too large to finance through private or public equity alone. But with sufficient diversification and risk analytics, debt financing via securitization may be feasible. Credit enhancements (i.e., derivatives and government guarantees) can also improve megafund economics. We present an analytical framework and illustrative empirical examples involving cancer research.

scholarly journals Some Considerations in the Use of Very-Long-Baseline-Interferometry to Establish Reference Coordinate Systems for Geodynamics

1980 ◽  
Vol 56 ◽  
pp. 205-216
Author(s):  
Douglas S. Robertson
Keyword(s):  
Reference Frames ◽  
Geodetic Survey ◽  
Limiting Factors ◽  
Radio Sources ◽  
National Geodetic Survey ◽  
Terrestrial Reference Frames ◽  
Long Baseline ◽  
Lithospheric Plates ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The Stability

AbstractPresent knowledge of the number, distribution, proper motion and structures of extragalactic radio sources indicates that there should be no problem in defining a celestial reference frame with stabilities of a few milliseconds of arc over time spans of the order of a decade. One of the limiting factors appears to be the structure of the sources. By measuring and monitoring these structures, the stability could probably be improved by as much as one or two orders of magnitude. Even without this improvement, a network of properly distributed fixed observatories making regular interferometric observations of these radio sources could be used to define a terrestrial coordinate system that could be maintained at the few centimeter level over indefinitely long time periods. Such a stable terrestrial reference system would be useful for a host of modern geodetic and geodynamic applications, including, in particular, studies of the time varying deformations and relative motions of lithospheric plates. The National Geodetic Survey has already begun work on a three station base network of permanent observatories under project POLARIS as a first step toward implementing the new celestial and terrestrial reference frames. It is hoped that others will join in the effort and make the new reference frames a reality by the middle of this decade.

scholarly journals Generic Drugs Not as Safe as FDA Wants You to Believe

2019 ◽  
Vol 54 (3) ◽  
pp. 283-286 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Michael White
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prescription Drugs ◽  
Generic Drugs ◽  
The United States ◽  
Drug Supply ◽  
Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients ◽  
Pharmaceutical Ingredients ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Generic Products

Food and Drug Administration (FDA) rules for the production of prescription drugs are very rigorous and, if followed, guarantees a safe drug supply. For many years, foreign manufacturers have produced substandard generic products and active pharmaceutical ingredients and shipped them into the United States. If the FDA had inspected them with the same rigor as they do domestic manufacturers, they would have found many of these egregious deviations from ethical manufacturing much earlier. Although the FDA is finally stepping up the number of inspections, their current processes still rely on preannounced inspections with long time horizons, so quality issues can be temporarily corrected and documents altered or destroyed.

Global Warming: More Common Than Tragic

2004 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-46 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth R. DeSombre
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
International Cooperation ◽  
Kyoto Protocol ◽  
Tragedy Of The Commons ◽  
The United States ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The Commons ◽  
Process Work

Global warming is indeed a difficult international environmental problem to address: it has tragedy of the commons characteristics, and problems of time horizons and uncertainty. But previous efforts at international cooperation on other environmental issues such as ozone depletion suggest that international cooperation should be possible–though difficult–on climate change. Cooperation on issues that involve long time horizons suggests that the present generation is not calculating utility quite so narrowly as game theorists posit. Experience also suggests that successful cooperation on climate change will start with measures so small as to seem inconsequential, but will set in place an institutional and scientific process that will ultimately result in much more significant cooperative efforts. Rather than representing a tragedy, the Kyoto Protocol (or something much like it) could represent the beginnings of a process in which current generations take the first steps at collective action that dramatically improve the lives of future generations. Those who are concerned about the weakness of the Kyoto Protocol should first focus on persuading the United States to join-since this is the best way to let the process work and avoid a tragedy of the commons.

Customer Matrix with Different Time Horizons Applied to Electrodischarge Machines

2013 ◽  
Vol 371 ◽  
pp. 220-224
Author(s):  
Daniela Ghiculescu ◽  
Niculae Marinescu ◽  
Daniel Ghiculescu ◽  
Claudiu Pirnău
Keyword(s):  
Time Variable ◽  
Competitive Environment ◽  
Sustainable Competitive Advantage ◽  
Forecast Method ◽  
Second Stage ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Perceived Price ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Tree Method

A very effective method to evaluate the products is the Customer Matrix (CM) that uses two coordinates: Perceived Used Value (PUV) and Perceived Price. Our researches extend this basic concept by adding the time variable, creating CM with different time horizons that assures a better understanding of competitive environment. In the first stage, the Customer Matrix is associated with a forecast method. The relevance tree method was used to predict the most probable evolution paths of electrodischarge machines. In the second stage, the CM with different time horizons is constructed, considering products evaluation for short, medium and long time. Finally, a strategy is conceived for an organization that attempts to ameliorate and consolidate its long term position against the main competitors, aiming at obtaining sustainable competitive advantage.

Accounting for real exchange rate changes at long time horizons

2015 ◽  
Vol 46 ◽  
pp. 264-277
Author(s):  
Lein-Lein Chen ◽  
Seungmook Choi ◽  
John Devereux
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes

scholarly journals Time preferences are reliable across time-horizons and verbal vs. experiential tasks

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evgeniya Lukinova ◽  
Yuyue Wang ◽  
Steven F. Lehrer ◽  
Jeffrey C. Erlich
Keyword(s):  
Delay Discounting ◽  
Time Preference ◽  
Animal Studies ◽  
Time Preferences ◽  
Biological Mechanisms ◽  
Discount Factors ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Experiential Tasks ◽  
Human Animal

AbstractIndividual differences in delay-discounting correlate with important real world outcomes, e.g. education, income, drug use, & criminality. As such, delay-discounting has been extensively studied by economists, psychologists and neuroscientists to reveal its behavioral and biological mechanisms in both human and non-human animal models. However, two major methodological differences hinder comparing results across species. Human studies present long time-horizon options verbally, whereas animal studies employ experiential cues and short delays. To bridge these divides, we developed a novel language-free experiential task inspired by animal decision-making studies. We find that subjects’ time-preferences are reliable across both verbal/experiential differences and also second/day differences. When we examined whether discount factors shifted or scaled across the tasks, we found a surprisingly strong effect of temporal context. Taken together, this indicates that subjects have a stable, but context-dependent, time-preference that can be reliably assessed using different methods; thereby, providing a foundation to bridge studies of time-preferences across species.

scholarly journals Ecology of the Porcupine caribou herd

Rangifer ◽  
1996 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth R. Whitten
Keyword(s):  
Rangifer Tarandus ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Nutritional Stress ◽  
Food Competition ◽  
Limiting Factors ◽  
Delayed Puberty ◽  
Adverse Weather Conditions ◽  
Adverse Weather ◽  
Long Time

Researchers have described general patterns of population regulation that fit most caribou (Rangifer tarandus) herds. Nevertheless, specific factors operating on particular populations vary greatly, and efforts to categorize herds according to the general patterns often lead to confusion. It is difficult for biologists to attempt to describe population dynamics in terms of density relationships for wide-ranging arctic caribou such as the Porcupine Herd. In these herds density varies as a function of dispersal and erratic movement patterns and is not simply the number of caribou divided by a fixed range area. Density is also a poor surrogate for resource availability per individual caribou because climatic factors affect forage and/or access to forage independendy of caribou numbers. Thus classic signs of nutritional stress such as delayed puberty, reduced productivity, and winter starvation can occur when a population is small as well as large and do not necessarily denote food competition brought on by high density, per se. Nutritional stress and exacerbated predation due to adverse weather conditions occasionally cause the Porcupine Herd to decline, and limiting factors such as poor nutrition, predation, harvest, accidents, and disease act in combination to keep herd growth rates low during periods of good weather. Adverse weather setbacks occur frequently, and the herd remains within a fairly restricted range of densities over long time periods. There is no true density dependent regulation and no equilibrium in this system.

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