The role of financial stress in the economic activity: Fresh evidence from a Granger‐causality in quantiles analysis for the UK and Germany

This paper performs robust bilateral Granger causality tests for stock prices, consumer sentiment, and economic activity for the US and the UK. The robust test procedures involve the use of recently developed time series analysis of nonstationary data with possible structural breaks. Applying a battery of such tests, the paper finds the underlying data to be generally nonstationary and noncointegrated, even after allowing for possible breaks in the data, thus implying that the standard bilateral Granger causality tests are robust. The empirical results indicate the presence of unidirectional causality from stock prices to consumer sentiment for both countries. Given that stock prices drive consumer sentiment, we perform additional causality tests to determine the effect of consumer sentiment on the economy. Our finding of a unidirectional causality from consumer sentiment to the economy in both countries is consistent with a chain of causality from stock prices to consumer sentiment to the economy.

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The link between financial stress index and economic activity: prominent Granger causalities across frequencies in Luxembourg

Journal of Economic Studies ◽

10.1108/jes-05-2020-0251 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽

Author(s):

Pejman Bahramian ◽

Andisheh Saliminezhad ◽

Şule Aker

Keyword(s):

Granger Causality ◽

Time Domain ◽

Economic Activity ◽

Financial Stress ◽

Financial Sector ◽

Stress Index ◽

Content Type ◽

Financial Stress Index ◽

The Time Domain ◽

The Relationship

PurposeIn spite of the certain risk imposed by financial stress on the real economy, the relationship between financial stress and economic activity is complicated and underresearched, meaning that important gaps still remain in the authors’ understanding of this critical relationship. Therefore, the current study aims to answer the significant question regarding whether a stressful financial sector has predictive power on the real sector and vice versa. Hence, the study examines the causal interrelationship between financial stress index (FSI) and economic activity in Luxembourg as a sample country.Design/methodology/approachIn this study, accompanying the time domain Granger causality framework of Hacker and Hatemi-J (2012), the authors utilize the spectral causality technique of Breitung and Candelon (2006), which is based on the study of Geweke (1982) and Hosoya (1991). This method enables the researcher to measure the degree of a particular variation in time series. Moreover, it allows considering the nonlinearities and causality cycles. The authors further apply the recent method of Farné and Montanari (2018) that is a bootstrap framework on Granger-causality spectra, which allows for disambiguation in causalities.FindingsThe time-domain approach finds evidence of bidirectional causation between the variables. However, the spectral causality results indicate the causal linkages between the series are only valid under the medium-run frequency. This study’s findings emphasize covering the frequency causality to deliver a more comprehensive picture of the interrelationship between the variables.Originality/valueThere are many studies in this area that examine the nexus between financial stress and economic activity. However, the authors believe this paper is the first study in the context of Luxemburg. The authors focus on this country since its financial sector is designated as the most important pillar for the economy. Thus, a careful and reliable examination of the relationship between the financial sector and economic activity is likely to be of considerable interest to policymakers and researchers in this field.

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The Role of Economic Uncertainty in UK Stock Returns

Journal of Risk and Financial Management ◽

10.3390/jrfm12010005 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 5 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Jun Gao ◽

Sheng Zhu ◽

Niall O’Sullivan ◽

Meadhbh Sherman

Keyword(s):

Economic Policy ◽

Stock Returns ◽

Economic Activity ◽

Policy Uncertainty ◽

Economic Uncertainty ◽

Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽

Macroeconomic Uncertainty ◽

Uncertainty Indices ◽

The Uk

We investigated the role of domestic and international economic uncertainty in the cross-sectional pricing of UK stocks. We considered a broad range of financial market variables in measuring financial conditions to obtain a better estimate of macroeconomic uncertainty compared to previous literature. In contrast to many earlier studies using conventional principal component analysis to estimate economic uncertainty, we constructed new economic activity and inflation uncertainty indices for the UK using a time-varying parameter factor-augmented vector autoregressive (TVP-FAVAR) model. We then estimated stock sensitivity to a range of macroeconomic uncertainty indices and economic policy uncertainty indices. The evidence suggests that economic activity uncertainty and UK economic policy uncertainty have power in explaining the cross-section of UK stock returns, while UK inflation, EU economic policy and US economic policy uncertainty factors are not priced in stock returns for the UK.

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Role of daily and chronic financial stress in socioeconomic pain disparities

PsycEXTRA Dataset ◽

10.1037/e526072008-001 ◽

2008 ◽

Author(s):

Rebeca Rios ◽

Alex J. Zautra

Keyword(s):

Financial Stress

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The role of the DSIR in the advancement of psychology in the UK

PsycEXTRA Dataset ◽

10.1037/e531392009-001 ◽

1961 ◽

Author(s):

Alphonse Chapanis

Keyword(s):

The Uk

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World Economic Crisis as a Process of Substitution of Technological Modes

Voprosy Ekonomiki ◽

10.32609/0042-8736-2009-3-26-38 ◽

2009 ◽

pp. 26-38 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

S. Glaziev

Keyword(s):

Economic Crisis ◽

Economic Activity ◽

Sharp Increase ◽

Energy Resources ◽

Long Wave ◽

The World ◽

World Economic ◽

Technological Mode ◽

World Economic Crisis

The article analyzes fundamental reasons for the world economic crisis in the light of global technological shifts. It proves that it is caused by the substitution of technological modes. It is shown that sharp increase and slump in stock indices and prices for energy resources are typical of the process of technological substitution which occurs regularly according to the rhythm of long-wave fluctuations of the world economic activity. The article rationalizes a package of anti-crisis measures aimed at stimulating the new technological mode. Its structure and role of the locomotive factor of the new long wave of economic growth are revealed.

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Management of deradicalisation in the UK: reflections of a clinical psychologist

Journal of Psychological Therapies ◽

10.33212/jpt.v4n1.2019.59 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Feryad A. Hussain

Keyword(s):

Clinical Psychologist ◽

Healthcare Team ◽

Psychosocial Issues ◽

Muslim Community ◽

Home Office ◽

Terrorist Groups ◽

Violent Action ◽

Clinical Counselling ◽

The Uk

Radicalisation to violent action is not just a problem in foreign lands. Research has identified numerous politico–psychosocial factors to explain why young people from the UK are now joining terrorist groups such as ISIS. Our understanding has been expanded by the accounts of “returnees” who have subsequently either self-deradicalised or joined a government deradicalisation programme in the role of an Intervention Provider (IP). These individuals are now key to the deradicalisation programme. This article presents the reflections of a clinical psychologist who worked within a social healthcare team managing psychosocial issues related to radicalisation, in conjunction with an allocated IP. The project involved individuals from the Muslim community and, as such, issues discussed are specific to this group. It is acknowledged that the process in general is universally applicable to all groups though specifics may vary (under Trust agreement, details may not be discussed). This article also aims to share basic information on the current Home Office deradicalisation programme and raises questions about the current intervention. It also offers reflections on how the work of IPs may be facilitated and supported by clinical/counselling psychologists and psychotherapists.

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