Responses of the East Asian winter monsoon to global warming in CMIP5 models

2015 ◽  
Vol 36 (5) ◽  
pp. 2139-2155 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mimi Xu ◽  
Haiming Xu ◽  
Jing Ma
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
East Asian Winter Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Winter Monsoon ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Asian Winter Monsoon

scholarly journals Revisiting the Northern Mode of East Asian Winter Monsoon Variation and Its Response to Global Warming

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (21) ◽  
pp. 9001-9014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hainan Gong ◽  
Lin Wang ◽  
Wen Zhou ◽  
Wen Chen ◽  
Renguang Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
East Asian Winter Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Winter Monsoon ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Asian Winter Monsoon

This study revisits the northern mode of East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) variation and investigates its response to global warming based on the ERA dataset and outputs from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. Results show that the observed variation in East Asian surface air temperature (EAT) is tightly coupled with sea level pressure variation in the expanded Siberian high (SH) region during boreal winter. The first singular value decomposition (SVD) mode of the EAT and SH explains 95% of the squared covariance in observations from 1961 to 2005, which actually represents the northern mode of EAWM variation. Meanwhile, the first SVD mode of the EAT and SH is verified to be equivalent to the first empirical orthogonal function mode (EOF1) of the EAT and SH, respectively. Since the leading mode of the temperature variation is significantly influenced by radiative forcing in a rapidly warming climate, for reliable projection of long-term changes in the northern mode of the EAWM, we further employ the EOF1 mode of the SH to represent the northern mode of EAWM variation. The models can well reproduce this coupling between the EAT and SH in historical simulations. Meanwhile, a robust weakening of the northern mode of the EAWM is found in the RCP4.5 scenario, and with stronger warming in the RCP8.5 scenario, the weakening of the EAWM is more pronounced. It is found that the weakening of the northern mode of the EAWM can contribute 6.7% and 9.4% of the warming trend in northern East Asian temperature under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively.

Changes in the relationship between the East Asian winter monsoon and ENSO under global warming

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zixuan Jia ◽  
Massimo Bollasina ◽  
Chaofan Li ◽  
Ruth Doherty ◽  
Oliver Wild
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
East Asian Winter Monsoon ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Winter Monsoon ◽  
Pacific Region ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽  
Asian Winter Monsoon ◽  
Asian Pacific Region ◽  
Asian Pacific

<p>The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is a prominent feature of the northern hemisphere atmospheric circulation during boreal winter, which has a large influence on weather and climate of the Asian-Pacific region. At interannual time scales, the strength of the EAWM is strongly influenced by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), while the ENSO-EAWM relationship displays pronounced interdecadal variations associated with changes in the ENSO teleconnection pathways to East Asia. Using future transient simulations from the Max Planck Institute-Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE), changes in the ENSO-EAWM relationship are examined at various global warming levels during the 21<sup>st</sup>-century. Results indicate that this relationship will enhance from present-day to +1.5°C, and then weaken until +3°C, strongly impacted by changes in anthropogenic forcing with internal variability playing a negligible role. The ENSO-EAWM relationship is strongly related to the background mean state of both the EAWM and ENSO under global warming. Both the climatological EAWM strength and the ENSO-related anomalies across the Asian-Pacific region contribute to changes in the ENSO-EAWM relationship. Furthermore, anthropogenic aerosols are also found to play a major role in influencing the ENSO-EAWM relationship under moderate warming (up to 1.5°C).</p>

scholarly journals How well do the current state-of-the-art CMIP5 models characterise the climatology of the East Asian winter monsoon?

2013 ◽  
Vol 43 (5-6) ◽  
pp. 1241-1255 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ke Wei ◽  
Ting Xu ◽  
Zhencai Du ◽  
Hainan Gong ◽  
Baohua Xie
Keyword(s):  
East Asian Winter Monsoon ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Winter Monsoon ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Asian Winter Monsoon ◽  
Current State

scholarly journals Biases and Improvements of the ENSO- East Asian Winter Monsoon Teleconnection in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenping Jiang ◽  
Hainan Gong ◽  
Ping Huang ◽  
Lin Wang ◽  
Gang Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
East Asian Winter Monsoon ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Winter Monsoon ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Northwest Pacific ◽  
Cold Tongue ◽  
Asian Winter Monsoon ◽  
Mean State

Abstract The influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is investigated based on the outputs of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models and compared to that in phase 5 (CMIP5). Results show that the CMIP6 models generally reproduce the ENSO-EAWM teleconnection more realistically than the CMIP5 models, although they still somewhat underestimate the ENSO-EAWM teleconnection than observed. Based on the inter-model spread of ENSO-EAWM teleconnection simulated in the CMIP5/CMIP6 models, we reveal that the commonly underestimated ENSO-EAWM teleconnection among the models can be traced back to the excessive cold tongue bias in the equatorial western Pacific. A model with a stronger climatological cold tongue favors generating a more westward extension of the ENSO-related SST anomaly pattern, which in turn forces an anomalous cyclonic circulation over the Northwest Pacific (NWP). It offsets the anticyclonic anomalies in the NWP triggered by the warm ENSO-related SST anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean and the central-eastern Pacific and weakens the ENSO-EAWM teleconnection. Compared with the CMIP5 models, CMIP6 models better simulate SST mean state and the resultant ENSO-EAWM teleconnection. The present results suggest that substantial efforts should be made to reduce the bias in the mean-state SST for further improving the simulation and projection of the East Asian-western Pacific winter climate.

scholarly journals The Climatology and Interannual Variability of the East Asian Winter Monsoon in CMIP5 Models

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 1659-1678 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hainan Gong ◽  
Lin Wang ◽  
Wen Chen ◽  
Renguang Wu ◽  
Ke Wei ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
East Asian Winter Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Winter Monsoon ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Northwestern Pacific ◽  
Cold Bias ◽  
Asian Winter Monsoon

Abstract In this paper the model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to examine the climatology and interannual variability of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). The multimodel ensemble (MME) is able to reproduce reasonably well the circulation features of the EAWM. The simulated surface air temperature still suffers from a cold bias over East Asia, but this bias is reduced compared with CMIP phase 3 models. The intermodel spread is relatively small for the large-scale circulations, but is large for the lower-tropospheric meridional wind and precipitation along the East Asian coast. The interannual variability of the EAWM-related circulations can be captured by most of the models. A general bias is that the simulated variability is slightly weaker than in the observations. Based on a selected dynamic EAWM index, the patterns of the EAWM-related anomalies are well reproduced in MME although the simulated anomalies are slightly weaker than the observations. One general bias is that the northeasterly anomalies over East Asia cannot be captured to the south of 30°N. This bias may arise both from the inadequacies of the EAWM index and from the ability of models to capture the EAWM-related tropical–extratropical interactions. The ENSO–EAWM relationship is then evaluated and about half of the models can successfully capture the observed ENSO–EAWM relationship, including the significant negative correlation between Niño-3.4 and EAWM indices and the anomalous anticyclone (or cyclone) over the northwestern Pacific. The success of these models is attributed to the reasonable simulation of both ENSO’s spatial structure and its strength of interannual variability.

scholarly journals Changes in the relationship between ENSO and the East Asian winter monsoon under global warming

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zixuan Jia ◽  
Massimo A. Bollasina ◽  
Chaofan Li ◽  
Ruth Doherty ◽  
Oliver Wild
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
East Asian Winter Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Winter Monsoon ◽  
Asian Winter Monsoon ◽  
The Relationship
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