scholarly journals Understanding south-east Australian rainfall projection uncertainties: the influence of patterns of projected tropical warming

2017 ◽  
Vol 37 ◽  
pp. 921-939 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Timbal ◽  
S. Fiddes ◽  
J. R. Brown
Keyword(s):  
Rainfall Projection ◽  
Australian Rainfall

scholarly journals Constraints on Southern Australian Rainfall Change Based on Atmospheric Circulation in CMIP5 Simulations

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (1) ◽  
pp. 225-242 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael R. Grose ◽  
James S. Risbey ◽  
Aurel F. Moise ◽  
Stacey Osbrough ◽  
Craig Heady ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Polar Front ◽  
Rainfall Trends ◽  
Circulation Change ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Projected Change ◽  
Rainfall Reduction ◽  
Rainfall Projection ◽  
Australian Rainfall

Atmospheric circulation change is likely to be the dominant driver of multidecadal rainfall trends in the midlatitudes with climate change this century. This study examines circulation features relevant to southern Australian rainfall in January and July and explores emergent constraints suggested by the intermodel spread and their impact on the resulting rainfall projection in the CMIP5 ensemble. The authors find relationships between models’ bias and projected change for four features in July, each with suggestions for constraining forced change. The features are the strength of the subtropical jet over Australia, the frequency of blocked days in eastern Australia, the longitude of the peak blocking frequency east of Australia, and the latitude of the storm track within the polar front branch of the split jet. Rejecting models where the bias suggests either the direction or magnitude of change in the features is implausible produces a constraint on the projected rainfall reduction for southern Australia. For RCP8.5 by the end of the century the constrained projections are for a reduction of at least 5% in July (with models showing increase or little change being rejected). Rejecting these models in the January projections, with the assumption the bias affects the entire simulation, leads to a rejection of wet and dry outliers.

South Australian rainfall variability and climate extremes

2008 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 477-493 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander D. Evans ◽  
John M. Bennett ◽  
Caecilia M. Ewenz
Keyword(s):  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Australian Rainfall

El Nino/Southern Oscillation and Australian rainfall, streamflow and drought: Links and potential for forecasting

1998 ◽  
Vol 204 (1-4) ◽  
pp. 138-149 ◽  
Author(s):  
F.H.S. Chiew ◽  
T.C. Piechota ◽  
J.A. Dracup ◽  
T.A. McMahon
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Australian Rainfall

scholarly journals Development of Temporal Rainfall Pattern for Southern Region of Sarawak

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 17-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosmina A. Bustami ◽  
Nor Azalina Rosli ◽  
Jethro Henry Adam ◽  
Kuan Pei Li
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Pattern ◽  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Southern Region ◽  
Rainfall Pattern ◽  
Rainfall Duration ◽  
Design Rainfall ◽  
Average Rainfall ◽  
Urban Storm ◽  
Australian Rainfall

 In the process of a design rainfall, information on rainfall duration, average rainfall intensity and temporal rainfall pattern is important. This study focuses on developing a temporal rainfall pattern for the Southern region of Sarawak since temporal pattern for Sarawak is yet to be available in the Malaysian Urban Storm Water Management Manual (MSMA), which publishes temporal pattern for design storms only for Peninsular Malaysia. The recommended technique by the Australian Rainfall and Runoff (AR&R) known as the ‘Average Variability Method’ and method in Hydrological Procedure No.1-1982 are used to derive design rainfall temporal pattern for the study. Rainfall data of 5 minutes interval from year 1998 to year 2006 for 7 selected rainfall stations in the selected region is obtained from Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID). The temporal rainfall patterns developed are for 10 minutes,15 minutes, 30 minutes, 60 minutes, 120 minutes, 180 minutes and 360 minutes duration. The results show that Southern region of Sarawak has an exclusive rainfall pattern, which is different from the pattern developed for Peninsular Malaysia.

scholarly journals Estimating urban flood risk – uncertainty in design criteria

2015 ◽  
Vol 370 ◽  
pp. 3-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Newby ◽  
S. W. Franks ◽  
C. J. White
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Design Criteria ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Urban Flood ◽  
Frequency Distributions ◽  
Rainfall Variation ◽  
Design Rainfall ◽  
Australian Rainfall

Abstract. The design of urban stormwater infrastructure is generally performed assuming that climate is static. For engineering practitioners, stormwater infrastructure is designed using a peak flow method, such as the Rational Method as outlined in the Australian Rainfall and Runoff (AR&R) guidelines and estimates of design rainfall intensities. Changes to Australian rainfall intensity design criteria have been made through updated releases of the AR&R77, AR&R87 and the recent 2013 AR&R Intensity Frequency Distributions (IFDs). The primary focus of this study is to compare the three IFD sets from 51 locations Australia wide. Since the release of the AR&R77 IFDs, the duration and number of locations for rainfall data has increased and techniques for data analysis have changed. Updated terminology coinciding with the 2013 IFD release has also resulted in a practical change to the design rainfall. For example, infrastructure that is designed for a 1 : 5 year ARI correlates with an 18.13% AEP, however for practical purposes, hydraulic guidelines have been updated with the more intuitive 20% AEP. The evaluation of design rainfall variation across Australia has indicated that the changes are dependent upon location, recurrence interval and rainfall duration. The changes to design rainfall IFDs are due to the application of differing data analysis techniques, the length and number of data sets and the change in terminology from ARI to AEP. Such changes mean that developed infrastructure has been designed to a range of different design criteria indicating the likely inadequacy of earlier developments to the current estimates of flood risk. In many cases, the under-design of infrastructure is greater than the expected impact of increased rainfall intensity under climate change scenarios.

CMIP5 ensemble-based spatial rainfall projection over homogeneous zones of India

2016 ◽  
Vol 49 (5-6) ◽  
pp. 1885-1916 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javed Akhter ◽  
Lalu Das ◽  
Argha Deb
Keyword(s):  
Rainfall Projection

Frequency Analysis of Australian Rainfall Data as used for Flood Analysis and Design

1987 ◽  
pp. 293-302 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. P. Canterford ◽  
N. R. Pescod ◽  
H. J. Pearce ◽  
L. H. Turner ◽  
R. J. Atkinson
Keyword(s):  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Analysis And Design ◽  
Flood Analysis ◽  
Australian Rainfall

An analysis of late twentieth century trends in Australian rainfall

2009 ◽  
Vol 29 (6) ◽  
pp. 791-807 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andréa S. Taschetto ◽  
Matthew H. England
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Late Twentieth ◽  
Late Twentieth Century ◽  
Australian Rainfall
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