scholarly journals Comparative evaluation of the skill of a global circulation model and a limited area model in simulating tropical cyclones in the north Indian Ocean

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (4) ◽  
pp. 523-533
Author(s):  
G. N. Mohapatra ◽  
V. Rakesh ◽  
P. K. Mohanty ◽  
S. Himesh
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Comparative Evaluation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
North Indian Ocean ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Limited Area Model ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
The North

scholarly journals Advance forecasting of cyclone track over north Indian Ocean using a global circulation model

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 57 (1) ◽  
pp. 111-118
Author(s):  
P. GOSWAMI ◽  
A. MANDAL ◽  
H. C. UPADHYAYA ◽  
FREDERIC HOURDIN
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
North Indian Ocean ◽  
Critical Parameters ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Global Circulation Model ◽  
Pressure System ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Increasing Demand

&  m".kdfVca/kh; pØokr lewps fo’o esa vf/kdka’k rVorhZ {ks=ksa esa xaHkhj vkSj fodjky Mj mRiUu djrs jgrs gSaA blfy, m".kdfVca/kh; pØokrksa ds laca/k esa vf/kd lVhd vkSj yEch vof/k ds iwokZuqeku dh ek¡x c<+rh tk jgh gSA ;|fi dkQh le; ls lhfer {ks= fun’kZ ¼,y- ,- ,e-½ m".kdfVca/kh; pØokrksa ds xfrdh; iwokZuqeku ds fy, ijEijkxr lk/ku jgs gSa fQj Hkh bl ckr ls Hkh badkj ugh fd;k tk ldrk gS fd pØokrksa dh xfrdh; izÑfr ds izLrqrhdj.k esa HkweaMyh; ifjlapj.k fun’kkZsa ¼th- lh- ,e-½ ds mi;ksx ds Qy Lo:Ik dkQh lq/kkj vk;k gSA mnkgj.k ds fy, caxky dh [kkM+h ds dqN pØokr rks caxky dh [kkM+h esa gh fodflr gksrs gSa fdarq cgqr ls pØokr [kkM+h ds iwoZ dh rjQ cus fuEu nkc {ks= ds l?ku gksus vkSj [kkM+h dh vksj c<+us ds dkj.k curs gSa ftlls ;g Li"V gS fd pØokr ds iwokZuqeku ds fy, pØokr ds mRiUu gksus ds foLr`r {ks= dks 'kkfey djus dh vko’;drk gSA bl 'kks/k&i= esa geus crk;k gS fd ,y- ,- ,e- vkSj th- lh- ,e- dh la;qDr fo’ks"krk rqyukRed :Ik ls uohu Js.kh ds HkweaMyh; ekWMyksa ¼th- lh- ,e-½ ls pØokr ds ekxZ vkSj mldh rhozrk tSls dqN vR;ar egRoiw.kZ y{k.kksa  ds laca/k eas yEch vof/k ds vkSj vf/kd lVhd rjg ds iwokZuqeku nksuksa miyC/k djk ldrs gSaA lkr pØokrksa ls lacaf/kr fofHkUu LFkkuksa] _rqvksa] o"kZ vkSj mudh rhozrk] izfr:fir ekxksZa vkSj pØokrksa ds ySaMQky ds LFkyksa ds ik¡p fnuksa ls Hkh vf/kd le; igys dh mudh vkjafHkd voLFkkvksa vkSj muds laca/k esa leqnz lrg rkieku ¼,l- ,l- Vh-½ ds ekfld tyok;q foKku ds 48 ?kaVs igys tkjh fd, x, gSaA buesa rkRdkfyd izpkyukRed iwokZuqeku ds leku gh =qfV;k¡ ikbZ xbZ gSaA Tropical cyclones pose a serious and growing threat to many coastal areas world over; there is increasing demand for better accuracy as well as longer range for tropical cyclone forecasts. While the traditional tool for dynamical forecasting of tropical cyclones has been Limited Area Models (LAM), there are reasons to believe that use of Global Circulation Models (GCM) may result in improved representation of cyclone dynamics. Over Bay of Bengal, for example, while some cyclones develop in situ, many result from intensification of low pressure system that travel from the east, implying need for consideration of a large domain. We show here that a relatively new class of Global Circulation Models (GCM), combining the advantages of LAMs and GCMs, can provide both longer range and better accuracy for such critical parameters like track and intensity. For seven cyclones representing different locations, seasons, years and strength, simulated tracks and land-fall locations show, with initial condition more than 5 days ahead and only monthly climatology of sea surface temperature (SST), errors comparable to those from current operational forecast 48 hours in advance.  

Extended Prediction of North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones

2012 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 757-769 ◽  
Author(s):  
James I. Belanger ◽  
Peter J. Webster ◽  
Judith A. Curry ◽  
Mark T. Jelinek
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Indian Ocean ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Genesis ◽  
Lead Times ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
The North

Abstract This analysis examines the predictability of several key forecasting parameters using the ECMWF Variable Ensemble Prediction System (VarEPS) for tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) including tropical cyclone genesis, pregenesis and postgenesis track and intensity projections, and regional outlooks of tropical cyclone activity for the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. Based on the evaluation period from 2007 to 2010, the VarEPS TC genesis forecasts demonstrate low false-alarm rates and moderate to high probabilities of detection for lead times of 1–7 days. In addition, VarEPS pregenesis track forecasts on average perform better than VarEPS postgenesis forecasts through 120 h and feature a total track error growth of 41 n mi day−1. VarEPS provides superior postgenesis track forecasts for lead times greater than 12 h compared to other models, including the Met Office global model (UKMET), the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS), and the Global Forecasting System (GFS), and slightly lower track errors than the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. This paper concludes with a discussion of how VarEPS can provide much of this extended predictability within a probabilistic framework for the region.

scholarly journals Effect of tropical cyclones on the Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange observed using satellite observations over north Indian Ocean

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Venkat Ratnam ◽  
S. Ravindra Babu ◽  
S. S. Das ◽  
Ghouse Basha ◽  
B. V. Krishnamurthy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
North Indian Ocean ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Tropical cyclones play an important role in modifying the tropopause structure and dynamics as well as stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) process in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere (UTLS) region. In the present study, the impact of cyclones that occurred over the North Indian Ocean during 2007–2013 on the STE process is quantified using satellite observations. Tropopause characteristics during cyclones are obtained from the Global Positioning System (GPS) Radio Occultation (RO) measurements and ozone and water vapor concentrations in UTLS region are obtained from Aura-Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) satellite observations. The effect of cyclones on the tropopause parameters is observed to be more prominent within 500 km from the centre of cyclone. In our earlier study we have observed decrease (increase) in the tropopause altitude (temperature) up to 0.6 km (3 K) and the convective outflow level increased up to 2 km. This change leads to a total increase in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) thickness of 3 km within the 500 km from the centre of cyclone. Interestingly, an enhancement in the ozone mixing ratio in the upper troposphere is clearly noticed within 500 km from cyclone centre whereas the enhancement in the water vapor in the lower stratosphere is more significant on south-east side extending from 500–1000 km away from the cyclone centre. We estimated the cross-tropopause mass flux for different intensities of cyclones and found that the mean flux from stratosphere to troposphere for cyclonic stroms is 0.05 ± 0.29 × 10−3 kg m−2 and for very severe cyclonic stroms it is 0.5 ± 1.07 × 10−3 kg m−2. More downward flux is noticed in the north-west and south-west side of the cyclone centre. These results indicate that the cyclones have significant impact in effecting the tropopause structure, ozone and water vapour budget and consequentially the STE in the UTLS region.

scholarly journals Impact of air-sea coupling on the simulation of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean using a simple 3-D ocean model coupled to ARW

2016 ◽  
Vol 121 (16) ◽  
pp. 9400-9421 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. V. Srinivas ◽  
Greeshma M. Mohan ◽  
C. V. Naidu ◽  
R. Baskaran ◽  
B. Venkatraman
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
North Indian Ocean ◽  
The North

Study of Tropical Cyclones in the North Indian Ocean basin using Percolation in Climate Networks

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shraddha Gupta ◽  
Jürgen Kurths ◽  
Florian Pappenberger
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Ocean Basin ◽  
North Indian Ocean ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Horizon 2020 ◽  
The North ◽  
Research And Innovation ◽  
Interacting Systems ◽  
Climate Networks

&lt;p&gt;Every point on the Earth&amp;#8217;s surface is a dynamical system which behaves in a complex way while interacting with other dynamical systems. Network theory captures this feature of climate to study the collective behaviour of these interacting systems giving new insights into the problem. Recently, climate networks have been a promising approach to the study of climate phenomena such as El Ni&amp;#241;o, Indian monsoon, etc. These phenomena, however, occur over a long period of time. Weather phenomena such as tropical cyclones (TCs) that are relatively short-lived, destructive events are a major concern to life and property especially for densely populated coastlines such as in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) basin. Here, we study TCs in the NIO basin by constructing climate networks using the ERA5 Sea Surface Temperature and Air temperature at 1000 hPa. We analyze these networks using the percolation framework for the post-monsoon (October-November-December) season which experiences a high frequency of TCs every year. We find significant signatures of TCs in the network structure which appear as abrupt discontinuities in the percolation-based parameters during the period of a TC. This shows the potential of climate networks towards forecasting of tropical cyclones.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This project has received funding from the European Union&amp;#8217;s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sk&amp;#322;odowska-Curie grant agreement No 813844.&lt;/p&gt;

Tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean: experiments with the high-resolution global icosahedral grid point model GME

2017 ◽  
Vol 130 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yogesh V. Kumkar ◽  
P. N. Sen ◽  
Hemankumar S. Chaudhari ◽  
Jai-Ho Oh
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Grid Point ◽  
North Indian Ocean ◽  
Point Model ◽  
The North

scholarly journals Pacific Decadal Oscillation Causes Fewer Near-Equatorial Cyclones in North Indian Ocean

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shinto Roose ◽  
Ajayamohan Ravindran ◽  
Pallav Ray ◽  
Shang-Ping Xie ◽  
Cherumadanakadan Thelliyil Sabeerali ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Pacific Decadal Oscillation ◽  
North Indian Ocean ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
The Past ◽  
The North ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Low Latitudes ◽  
Cyclone Frequency

Abstract Tropical cyclones do not form easily near the equator but can intensify rapidly, leaving little time for preparation. We investigated the number of near-equatorial (originating between 5°N and 11°N) tropical cyclones over the north Indian Ocean during post-monsoon seasons (October to December) over the past 60 years. A marked 43% decline in the number of such cyclones was detected in recent decades (1981-2010) compared to earlier (1951-1980). This decline in tropical cyclone frequency is primarily due to the weakened low-level vorticity modulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). In the presence of basin-wide warming at low latitudes, and a favorable phase of the PDO, both the intensity and frequency of such cyclones is expected to increase. Such dramatic and unique changes in tropical cyclonic activity due to the interplay between natural variability and climate change call for appropriate planning and mitigation strategies.

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