An integrated assessment of landscape evolution, long-term climate variability, and land use in the Amudarya Prisarykamysh delta

2002 ◽  
Vol 51 (3) ◽  
pp. 363-381 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena A. Tsvetsinskaya ◽  
Bella I. Vainberg ◽  
Elena V. Glushko
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Landscape Evolution

scholarly journals The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 3461-3482 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian C. O'Neill ◽  
Claudia Tebaldi ◽  
Detlef P. van Vuuren ◽  
Veronika Eyring ◽  
Pierre Friedlingstein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Scenario Model ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with the climate model simulations run within the 2017–2018 time frame, and output from the climate model projections made available and analyses performed over the 2018–2020 period.

scholarly journals Tropical forest hydrology and the role of the UNESCO International Hydrological Programme

1999 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 451-461 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Bonell
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Tropical Forest ◽  
Focal Point ◽  
Humid Tropics ◽  
Cultural Dimensions ◽  
Forest Hydrology ◽  
Forest Land ◽  
North East

Abstract. The paper outlines a perspective on tropical forest hydrology within the context of an international hydrological programme. Experience in tropical forest hydrology research in North East Australia is a focal point for comparison with international activities elsewhere. The impacts of climate variability and change are considered briefly, as well as those of reforestation of degraded land on the land use hydrology, which requires a longer term vision and support of long term experimental catchments. Sadly, too few long term experimental catchments have been maintained in the humid tropics and there have been some significant closures even of these sites in recent years. Yet the case for long-term experiments is strengthened by the problematic issue of separating anthropogenic influences (such as land use change) on the hydrology of landscapes from the effects of climate variability at a time of escalation in population and related socio-economic pressures in the humid tropics. Particular emphasis is made of the need for greater consideration for the social and cultural dimensions of forest management within forest hydrology. Furthermore, scientists must be committed to incorporating ‘societal needs' in their planning of research projects, as well as in publicizing the applications of their results, within the framework of forest-land-water policy. Alarm is expressed at the extensive disregard for the application of existing forest hydrology ‘know how' in forest-land management manipulations associated with the humid tropics.

scholarly journals The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian C. O'Neill ◽  
Claudia Tebaldi ◽  
Detlef van Vuuren ◽  
Veronika Eyring ◽  
Pierre Friedlingstein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Integrated Assessment Models ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Scenario Model ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection (CMIP6) that that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land-use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP’s objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modelling, and impacts, adaptation and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the next IPCC assessment. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted scientific questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit emissions and land-use scenarios generated with integrated assessment models will be provided to participating climate modeling groups by late 2016, with climate model projections expected to be available within the 2018–2020 time frame.

scholarly journals Coupling earth system and integrated assessment models: the problem of steady state

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 1499-1524 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Bond-Lamberty ◽  
K. Calvin ◽  
A. D. Jones ◽  
J. Mao ◽  
P. Patel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Steady State ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Proxy Variables

Abstract. Human activities are significantly altering biogeochemical cycles at the global scale, posing a significant problem for earth system models (ESMs), which may incorporate static land-use change inputs but do not actively simulate policy or economic forces. One option to address this problem is to couple an ESM with an economically oriented integrated assessment model. Here we have implemented and tested a coupling mechanism between the carbon cycles of an ESM (CESM, the Community Earth System Model) and an integrated assessment (GCAM) model, examining the best proxy variables to share between the models, and quantifying our ability to distinguish climate- and land-use-driven flux changes. The net primary production and heterotrophic respiration outputs of the Community Land Model (CLM), the land component of CESM, were found to be the most robust proxy variables by which to manipulate GCAM's assumptions of long-term ecosystem steady state carbon, with short-term forest production strongly correlated with long-term biomass changes in climate-change model runs. Carbon-cycle effects of anthropogenic land-use change are short-term and spatially limited relative to widely distributed climate effects, and as a result we were able to distinguish these effects successfully in the model coupling, passing only the latter to GCAM. By allowing climate effects from a full earth system model to dynamically modulate the economic and policy decisions of an integrated assessment model, this work provides a foundation for linking these models in a robust and flexible framework capable of examining two-way interactions between human and earth system processes.

Central Otago - Built on gold, growing on grass.

2014 ◽  
Vol 76 ◽  
pp. 15-23
Author(s):  
Barrie J. Wills
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Land Use ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Local Community ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Future Generations ◽  
Economic Potential ◽  
District Council ◽  
Definition Of

A warm welcome to our "World of Difference" to all delegates attending this conference - we hope your stay is enjoyable and that you will leave Central Otago with an enhanced appreciation of the diversity of land use and the resilient and growing economic potential that this region has to offer. Without regional wellbeing the national economy will struggle to grow, something Central Government finally seems to be realising, and the Central Otago District Council Long Term Plan 2012-2022 (LTP) signals the importance of establishing a productive economy for the local community which will aid in the economic growth of the district and seeks to create a thriving economy that will be attractive to business and residents alike. Two key principles that underpin the LTP are sustainability and affordability, with the definition of sustainability being "… development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs."

Interrelationships between municipal spatial policy strategy and airport operation and development. Lodz Airport case study

2018 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-79
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Nikorowicz-Zatorska
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Urban Planning ◽  
Cultural Development ◽  
The Other ◽  
Local Authorities ◽  
Spatial Management ◽  
The One ◽  
Surrounding Areas

Abstract The present paper focuses on spatial management regulations in order to carry out investment in the field of airport facilities. The construction, upgrades, and maintenance of airports falls within the area of responsibility of local authorities. This task poses a great challenge in terms of organisation and finances. On the one hand, an active airport is a municipal landmark and drives local economic, social and cultural development, and on the other, the scale of investment often exceeds the capabilities of local authorities. The immediate environment of the airport determines its final use and prosperity. The objective of the paper is to review legislation that affects airports and the surrounding communities. The process of urban planning in Lodz and surrounding areas will be presented as a background to the problem of land use management in the vicinity of the airport. This paper seeks to address the following questions: if and how airports have affected urban planning in Lodz, does the land use around the airport prevent the development of Lodz Airport, and how has the situation changed over the time? It can be assumed that as a result of lack of experience, land resources and size of investments on one hand and legislative dissonance and peculiar practices on the other, aviation infrastructure in Lodz is designed to meet temporary needs and is characterised by achieving short-term goals. Cyclical problems are solved in an intermittent manner and involve all the municipal resources, so there’s little left to secure long-term investments.

scholarly journals Soil erosion by snow gliding – a first quantification attempt in a subalpine area in Switzerland

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 3763-3775 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Meusburger ◽  
G. Leitinger ◽  
L. Mabit ◽  
M. H. Mueller ◽  
A. Walter ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Sediment Yield ◽  
Soil Loss ◽  
Water Erosion ◽  
Erosion Rates ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Snow Gliding

Abstract. Snow processes might be one important driver of soil erosion in Alpine grasslands and thus the unknown variable when erosion modelling is attempted. The aim of this study is to assess the importance of snow gliding as a soil erosion agent for four different land use/land cover types in a subalpine area in Switzerland. We used three different approaches to estimate soil erosion rates: sediment yield measurements in snow glide depositions, the fallout radionuclide 137Cs and modelling with the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). RUSLE permits the evaluation of soil loss by water erosion, the 137Cs method integrates soil loss due to all erosion agents involved, and the measurement of snow glide deposition sediment yield can be directly related to snow-glide-induced erosion. Further, cumulative snow glide distance was measured for the sites in the winter of 2009/2010 and modelled for the surrounding area and long-term average winter precipitation (1959–2010) with the spatial snow glide model (SSGM). Measured snow glide distance confirmed the presence of snow gliding and ranged from 2 to 189 cm, with lower values on the north-facing slopes. We observed a reduction of snow glide distance with increasing surface roughness of the vegetation, which is an important information with respect to conservation planning and expected and ongoing land use changes in the Alps. Snow glide erosion estimated from the snow glide depositions was highly variable with values ranging from 0.03 to 22.9 t ha−1 yr−1 in the winter of 2012/2013. For sites affected by snow glide deposition, a mean erosion rate of 8.4 t ha−1 yr−1 was found. The difference in long-term erosion rates determined with RUSLE and 137Cs confirms the constant influence of snow-glide-induced erosion, since a large difference (lower proportion of water erosion compared to total net erosion) was observed for sites with high snow glide rates and vice versa. Moreover, the difference between RUSLE and 137Cs erosion rates was related to the measured snow glide distance (R2 = 0.64; p < 0.005) and to the snow deposition sediment yields (R2 = 0.39; p = 0.13). The SSGM reproduced the relative difference of the measured snow glide values under different land uses and land cover types. The resulting map highlighted the relevance of snow gliding for large parts of the investigated area. Based on these results, we conclude that snow gliding appears to be a crucial and non-negligible process impacting soil erosion patterns and magnitude in subalpine areas with similar topographic and climatic conditions.

scholarly journals Cropland Abandonment in Slovakia: Analysis and Comparison of Different Data Sources

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 334
Author(s):  
Juraj Lieskovský ◽  
Dana Lieskovská
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Spatial Data ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Communist Regime ◽  
Corine Land Cover ◽  
Cropland Area ◽  
Cropland Abandonment ◽  
Multi Temporal

This study compares different nationwide multi-temporal spatial data sources and analyzes the cropland area, cropland abandonment rates and transformation of cropland to other land cover/land use categories in Slovakia. Four multi-temporal land cover/land use data sources were used: The Historic Land Dynamics Assessment (HILDA), the Carpathian Historical Land Use Dataset (CHLUD), CORINE Land Cover (CLC) data and Landsat images classification. We hypothesized that because of the different spatial, temporal and thematic resolution of the datasets, there would be differences in the resulting cropland abandonment rates. We validated the datasets, compared the differences, interpreted the results and combined the information from the different datasets to form an overall picture of long-term cropland abandonment in Slovakia. The cropland area increased until the Second World War, but then decreased after transition to the communist regime and sharply declined following the 1989 transition to an open market economy. A total of 49% of cropland area has been transformed to grassland, 34% to forest and 15% to urban areas. The Historical Carpathian dataset is the more reliable long-term dataset, and it records 19.65 km2/year average cropland abandonment for 1836–1937, 154.44 km2/year for 1938–1955 and 140.21 km2/year for 1956–2012. In comparison, the Landsat, as a recent data source, records 142.02 km2/year abandonment for 1985–2000 and 89.42 km2/year for 2000–2010. These rates, however, would be higher if the dataset contained urbanisation data and more precise information on afforestation. The CORINE Land Cover reflects changes larger than 5 ha, and therefore the reported cropland abandonment rates are lower.

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