The Response of Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Climate and Vegetation to Orbitally Induced Changes in Insolation during the Last Interglaciation

1995 ◽  
Vol 43 (2) ◽  
pp. 174-184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandy P. Harrison ◽  
John E. Kutzbach ◽  
I. Colin Prentice ◽  
Pat J. Behling ◽  
Martin T. Sykes
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Global Vegetation ◽  
Induced Changes

AbstractThe last interglaciation (substage 5e) provides an opportunity to examine the effects of extreme orbital changes on regional climates. We have made two atmospheric general circulation model experiments: P+T+ approximated the northern hemisphere seasonality maximum near the beginning of 5e; P-T- approximated the minimum near the end of 5e. Simulated regional climate changes have been translated into biome changes using a physiologically based model of global vegetation types. Major climatic and vegetational changes were simulated for the northern hemisphere extratropics, due to radiational effects that were both amplified and modified by atmospheric circulation changes and sea-ice feedback. P+T+ showed mid-continental summers up to 8°C warmer than present. Mid-latitude winters were 2-4°C cooler than present but in the Arctic, summer warmth reduced sea-ice extent and thickness, producing winters 2-8°C warmer than present. The tundra and taiga biomes were displaced poleward, while warm-summer steppes expanded in the mid latitudes due to drought. P-T- showed summers up to 5°C cooler than present, especially in mid latitudes. Sea ice and snowpack were thicker and lasted longer; polar desert, tundra, and taiga biomes were displaced equatorward, while cool-summer steppes and semideserts expanded due to the cooling. A slight winter warming in mid latitudes, however, caused warm-temperate evergreen forests and scrub to expand poleward. Such qualitative contrasts in the direction of climate and vegetation change during 5e should be identifiable in the paleorecord.

scholarly journals Multi-model dynamic climate emulator for solar geoengineering

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas G. MacMartin ◽  
Ben Kravitz
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Nonlinear Effects ◽  
Accurate Estimate ◽  
Natural Variability ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Solar Geoengineering

Abstract. Climate emulators trained on existing simulations can be used to project the climate effects that would result from different possible future pathways of anthropogenic forcing, without relying on general circulation model (GCM) simulations for every possible pathway. We extend this idea to include different amounts of solar geoengineering in addition to different pathways of green-house gas concentrations by training emulators from a multi-model ensemble of simulations from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The emulator is trained on the abrupt 4 x CO2 and a compensating solar reduction simulation (G1), and evaluated by comparing predictions against a simulated 1 % per year CO2 increase and a similarly smaller solar reduction (G2). We find reasonable agreement in most models for predicting changes in temperature and precipitation (including regional effects), and annual-mean Northern hemisphere sea ice extent, with the difference between simulation and prediction typically smaller than natural variability. This verifies that the linearity assumption used in constructing the emulator is sufficient for these variables over the range of forcing considered. Annual-minimum Northern hemisphere sea ice extent is less-well predicted, indicating the limits of the linearity assumption. For future pathways involving relatively small forcing from solar geoengineering, the errors introduced from nonlinear effects may be smaller than the uncertainty due to natural variability, and the emulator prediction may be a more accurate estimate of the forced component of the models' response than an actual simulation would be.

Seasonal Forecasts of the Pan-Arctic Sea Ice Extent Using a GCM-Based Seasonal Prediction System

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (16) ◽  
pp. 6092-6104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthieu Chevallier ◽  
David Salas y Mélia ◽  
Aurore Voldoire ◽  
Michel Déqué ◽  
Gilles Garric
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Arctic Sea

Abstract An ocean–sea ice model reconstruction spanning the period 1990–2009 is used to initialize ensemble seasonal forecasts with the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Coupled Global Climate Model version 5.1 (CNRM-CM5.1) coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model. The aim of this study is to assess the skill of fully initialized September and March pan-Arctic sea ice forecasts in terms of climatology and interannual anomalies. The predictions are initialized using “full field initialization” of each component of the system. In spite of a drift due to radiative biases in the coupled model during the melt season, the full initialization of the sea ice cover on 1 May leads to skillful forecasts of the September sea ice extent (SIE) anomalies. The skill of the prediction is also significantly high when considering anomalies of the SIE relative to the long-term linear trend. It confirms that the anomaly of spring sea ice cover in itself plays a role in preconditioning a September SIE anomaly. The skill of predictions for March SIE initialized on 1 November is also encouraging, and it can be partly attributed to persistent features of the fall sea ice cover. The present study gives insight into the current ability of state-of-the-art coupled climate systems to perform operational seasonal forecasts of the Arctic sea ice cover up to 5 months in advance.

scholarly journals The effect of tides on dense water formation in Arctic shelf seas

Ocean Science ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 203-217 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. F. Postlethwaite ◽  
M. A. Morales Maqueda ◽  
V. le Fouest ◽  
G. R. Tattersall ◽  
J. Holt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Salt Flux ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ocean Tides ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Salt Budget ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Ocean tides are not explicitly included in many ocean general circulation models, which will therefore omit any interactions between tides and the cryosphere. We present model simulations of the wind and buoyancy driven circulation and tides of the Barents and Kara Seas, using a 25 km × 25 km 3-D ocean circulation model coupled to a dynamic and thermodynamic sea ice model. The modeled tidal amplitudes are compared with tide gauge data and sea ice extent is compared with satellite data. Including tides in the model is found to have little impact on overall sea ice extent but is found to delay freeze up and hasten the onset of melting in tidally active coastal regions. The impact that including tides in the model has on the salt budget is investigated and found to be regionally dependent. The vertically integrated salt budget is dominated by lateral advection. This increases significantly when tides are included in the model in the Pechora Sea and around Svalbard where tides are strong. Tides increase the salt flux from sea ice by 50% in the Pechora and White Seas but have little impact elsewhere. This study suggests that the interaction between ocean tides and sea ice should not be neglected when modeling the Arctic.

scholarly journals The effect of tides on dense water formation in Arctic shelf seas

2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 1669-1701
Author(s):  
C. F. Postlethwaite ◽  
M. A. Morales Maqueda ◽  
V. Le Fouest ◽  
G. R. Tattersall ◽  
J. Holt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Salt Flux ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Ocean Tides ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Salt Budget ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Ocean tides are not explicitly included in many ocean general circulation models, which will therefore omit any interactions between tides and the cryosphere. We present model simulations of the wind and buoyancy driven circulation and tides of the Barents and Kara Seas, using a 25 km × 25 km 3-D ocean circulation model coupled to a dynamic and thermodynamic sea ice model. The modeled tidal amplitudes are compared with tide gauge data and sea ice extent is compared with satellite data. Including tides in the model is found to have little impact on overall sea ice extent but is found to delay freeze up and hasten the onset of melting in tidally active coastal regions. The impact that including tides in the model has on the salt budget is investigated and found to be regionally dependent. The vertically integrated salt budget is dominated by lateral advection. This increases significantly when tides are included in the model in the Pechora Sea and around Svalbard where tides are strong. Tides increase the salt flux from sea ice by 50% in the Pechora and White Seas but have little impact elsewhere. This study suggests that the interaction between ocean tides and sea ice should not be neglected when modeling the Arctic.

scholarly journals Dynamic climate emulators for solar geoengineering

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (24) ◽  
pp. 15789-15799 ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas G. MacMartin ◽  
Ben Kravitz
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Regional Effects ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Solar Geoengineering ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
The Difference

Abstract. Climate emulators trained on existing simulations can be used to project project the climate effects that result from different possible future pathways of anthropogenic forcing, without further relying on general circulation model (GCM) simulations. We extend this idea to include different amounts of solar geoengineering in addition to different pathways of greenhouse gas concentrations, by training emulators from a multi-model ensemble of simulations from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The emulator is trained on the abrupt 4 × CO2 and a compensating solar reduction simulation (G1), and evaluated by comparing predictions against a simulated 1 % per year CO2 increase and a similarly smaller solar reduction (G2). We find reasonable agreement in most models for predicting changes in temperature and precipitation (including regional effects), and annual-mean Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent, with the difference between simulation and prediction typically being smaller than natural variability. This verifies that the linearity assumption used in constructing the emulator is sufficient for these variables over the range of forcing considered. Annual-minimum Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent is less well predicted, indicating a limit to the linearity assumption.

scholarly journals Response of the Northern Hemisphere sea ice to greenhouse forcing in a global climate model

2001 ◽  
Vol 33 ◽  
pp. 513-520 ◽  
Author(s):  
Larissa Nazarenko ◽  
James Hansen ◽  
Nikolai Tausnev ◽  
Reto Ruedy
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Sea Ice Extent

AbstractThe Q.-flux Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) global climate model, in which an atmospheric general circulation model is coupled to a mixed-layer ocean with specified horizontal heat transports, is used to simulate the transient and equilibrium climate response to a gradual increase of carbon dioxide (1% per year increase of CO2 to doubled CO2). The results indicate that the current GISS model has a high sensitivity with a global annual warming of about 4°C for doubled CO2 . Enhanced warming is found at higher latitudes near sea-ice margins due to retreat of sea ice in the greenhouse experiment. Surface warming is larger in winter than in summer, in part because of the reductions in ice cover and thickness that insulate the winter atmosphere from the ocean. The annual mean reduction of sea-ice cover due to doubled CO2 is about 30% for the Northern Hemisphere. The CO2 experiment has a 70% reduction of sea-ice area and 55% thinning of ice in August in the Northern Hemisphere. Noticeable reduction of sea-ice cover has been found in both historical records and satellite observations. The largest reduction of simulated sea-ice extent occurs in summer, consistent with observations.

scholarly journals Numerical investigation of the Arctic ice–ocean boundary layer and implications for air–sea gas fluxes

Ocean Science ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-75 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arash Bigdeli ◽  
Brice Loose ◽  
An T. Nguyen ◽  
Sylvia T. Cole
Keyword(s):  
Gas Exchange ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Mixed Layer ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Mixed Layer Depth ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Massachusetts Institute Of Technology ◽  
Institute Of Technology

Abstract. In ice-covered regions it is challenging to determine constituent budgets – for heat and momentum, but also for biologically and climatically active gases like carbon dioxide and methane. The harsh environment and relative data scarcity make it difficult to characterize even the physical properties of the ocean surface. Here, we sought to evaluate if numerical model output helps us to better estimate the physical forcing that drives the air–sea gas exchange rate (k) in sea ice zones. We used the budget of radioactive 222Rn in the mixed layer to illustrate the effect that sea ice forcing has on gas budgets and air–sea gas exchange. Appropriate constraint of the 222Rn budget requires estimates of sea ice velocity, concentration, mixed-layer depth, and water velocities, as well as their evolution in time and space along the Lagrangian drift track of a mixed-layer water parcel. We used 36, 9 and 2 km horizontal resolution of regional Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) configuration with fine vertical spacing to evaluate the capability of the model to reproduce these parameters. We then compared the model results to existing field data including satellite, moorings and ice-tethered profilers. We found that mode sea ice coverage agrees with satellite-derived observation 88 to 98 % of the time when averaged over the Beaufort Gyre, and model sea ice speeds have 82 % correlation with observations. The model demonstrated the capacity to capture the broad trends in the mixed layer, although with a significant bias. Model water velocities showed only 29 % correlation with point-wise in situ data. This correlation remained low in all three model resolution simulations and we argued that is largely due to the quality of the input atmospheric forcing. Overall, we found that even the coarse-resolution model can make a modest contribution to gas exchange parameterization, by resolving the time variation of parameters that drive the 222Rn budget, including rate of mixed-layer change and sea ice forcings.

scholarly journals On the discretization of the ice thickness distribution in the NEMO3.6-LIM3 global ocean–sea ice model

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 3745-3758 ◽  
Author(s):  
François Massonnet ◽  
Antoine Barthélemy ◽  
Koffi Worou ◽  
Thierry Fichefet ◽  
Martin Vancoppenolle ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Thickness Distribution ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Grid Cell ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Ice Thickness ◽  
Ice Model

Abstract. The ice thickness distribution (ITD) is one of the core constituents of modern sea ice models. The ITD accounts for the unresolved spatial variability of sea ice thickness within each model grid cell. While there is a general consensus on the added physical realism brought by the ITD, how to discretize it remains an open question. Here, we use the ocean–sea ice general circulation model, Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) version 3.6 and Louvain-la-Neuve sea Ice Model (LIM) version 3 (NEMO3.6-LIM3), forced by atmospheric reanalyses to test how the ITD discretization (number of ice thickness categories, positions of the category boundaries) impacts the simulated mean Arctic and Antarctic sea ice states. We find that winter ice volumes in both hemispheres increase with the number of categories and attribute that increase to a net enhancement of basal ice growth rates. The range of simulated mean winter volumes in the various experiments amounts to ∼30 % and ∼10 % of the reference values (run with five categories) in the Arctic and Antarctic, respectively. This suggests that the way the ITD is discretized has a significant influence on the model mean state, all other things being equal. We also find that the existence of a thick category with lower bounds at ∼4 and ∼2 m for the Arctic and Antarctic, respectively, is a prerequisite for allowing the storage of deformed ice and therefore for fostering thermodynamic growth in thinner categories. Our analysis finally suggests that increasing the resolution of the ITD without changing the lower limit of the upper category results in small but not negligible variations of ice volume and extent. Our study proposes for the first time a bi-polar process-based explanation of the origin of mean sea ice state changes when the ITD discretization is modified. The sensitivity experiments conducted in this study, based on one model, emphasize that the choice of category positions, especially of thickest categories, has a primary influence on the simulated mean sea ice states while the number of categories and resolution have only a secondary influence. It is also found that the current default discretization of the NEMO3.6-LIM3 model is sufficient for large-scale present-day climate applications. In all cases, the role of the ITD discretization on the simulated mean sea ice state has to be appreciated relative to other influences (parameter uncertainty, forcing uncertainty, internal climate variability).

scholarly journals Constraining projections of summer Arctic sea ice

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 1383-1394 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Massonnet ◽  
T. Fichefet ◽  
H. Goosse ◽  
C. M. Bitz ◽  
G. Philippon-Berthier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Thickness Distribution ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Volume Characteristics

Abstract. We examine the recent (1979–2010) and future (2011–2100) characteristics of the summer Arctic sea ice cover as simulated by 29 Earth system and general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP5). As was the case with CMIP3, a large intermodel spread persists in the simulated summer sea ice losses over the 21st century for a given forcing scenario. The 1979–2010 sea ice extent, thickness distribution and volume characteristics of each CMIP5 model are discussed as potential constraints on the September sea ice extent (SSIE) projections. Our results suggest first that the future changes in SSIE with respect to the 1979–2010 model SSIE are related in a complicated manner to the initial 1979–2010 sea ice model characteristics, due to the large diversity of the CMIP5 population: at a given time, some models are in an ice-free state while others are still on the track of ice loss. However, in phase plane plots (that do not consider the time as an independent variable), we show that the transition towards ice-free conditions is actually occurring in a very similar manner for all models. We also find that the year at which SSIE drops below a certain threshold is likely to be constrained by the present-day sea ice properties. In a second step, using several adequate 1979–2010 sea ice metrics, we effectively reduce the uncertainty as to when the Arctic could become nearly ice-free in summertime, the interval [2041, 2060] being our best estimate for a high climate forcing scenario.

scholarly journals Sea-ice and North Atlantic climate response to CO2-induced warming and cooling conditions

2006 ◽  
Vol 52 (178) ◽  
pp. 433-439 ◽  
Author(s):  
Larissa Nazarenko ◽  
Nickolai Tausnev ◽  
James Hansen
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Surface Pressure ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Normal Surface ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
Polar Cell

AbstractUsing a global climate model coupled with an ocean and a sea-ice model, we compare the effects of doubling CO2 and halving CO2 on sea-ice cover and connections with the atmosphere and ocean. An overall warming in the 2 × CO2 experiment causes reduction of sea-ice extent by 15%, with maximum decrease in summer and autumn, consistent with observed seasonal sea-ice changes. The intensification of the Northern Hemisphere circulation is reflected in the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), associated with higher-than-normal surface pressure south of about 50° N and lower-than-normal surface pressure over the high northern latitudes. Strengthening the polar cell causes enhancement of westerlies around the Arctic perimeter during winter. Cooling, in the 0.5 × CO2 experiment, leads to thicker and more extensive sea ice. In the Southern Hemisphere, the increase in ice-covered area (28%) dominates the ice-thickness increase (5%) due to open ocean to the north. In the Northern Hemisphere, sea-ice cover increases by only 8% due to the enclosed land/sea configuration, but sea ice becomes much thicker (108%). Substantial weakening of the polar cell due to increase in sea-level pressure over polar latitudes leads to a negative trend of the winter AO index. The model reproduces large year-to-year variability under both cooling and warming conditions.

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