FLOOD WARNING CONCEPT FOR TURKEY: TECHNICAL AND ORGANISATIONAL ASPECTS

Author(s):  
THOMAS EINFALT
Keyword(s):  
2020 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 96-109
Author(s):  
A.V. Romanov ◽  
◽  
M.V. Yachmenova ◽  

Based on the example of flood warning data provided by EFAS for the territory of Northwestern Administration for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring in 2018-2020, the structure of the systematized issues of the EFAS portal is analyzed. The issues determine a feedback for the year-round monitoring of the accuracy of flood forecasting using the LISFLOOD base model, as well as its calibration. Several most important feedback sections are highlighted, that allow improving significantly a procedure for the quantitative and qualitative differentiated assessment of short- and medium-range flood forecasts. Using the results of the numerical analysis, a general description of the EFAS flood warning system quality and the prospects for the participation of the Russian Federation in it are given. Keywords: flooding, hydrological forecasts, forecast lead time, feedback, forecast accuracy


Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (11) ◽  
pp. 3768
Author(s):  
Yongshou Yang ◽  
Shiliang Fang

Broadband acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) is widely used in agricultural water resource explorations, such as river discharge monitoring and flood warning. Improving the velocity estimation accuracy of broadband ADCP by adjusting the waveform parameters of a phase-encoded signal will reduce the velocity measurement range and water stratification accuracy, while the promotion of stratification accuracy will degrade the velocity estimation accuracy. In order to minimize the impact of these two problems on the measurement results, the ADCP waveform optimization problem that satisfies the environment constraints while keeping high velocity estimation accuracy or stratification accuracy is studied. Firstly, the relationship between velocity or distance estimation accuracy and signal waveform parameters is studied by using an ambiguity function. Secondly, the constraints of current velocity range, velocity distribution and other environmental characteristics on the waveform parameters are studied. For two common measurement applications, two dynamic configuration methods of waveform parameters with environmental adaptability and optimal velocity estimation accuracy or stratification accuracy are proposed based on the nonlinear programming principle. Experimental results show that compared with the existing methods, the velocity estimation accuracy of the proposed method is improved by more than 50%, and the stratification accuracy is improved by more than 22%.


Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1061
Author(s):  
Thanh Thi Luong ◽  
Judith Pöschmann ◽  
Rico Kronenberg ◽  
Christian Bernhofer

Convective rainfall can cause dangerous flash floods within less than six hours. Thus, simple approaches are required for issuing quick warnings. The flash flood guidance (FFG) approach pre-calculates rainfall levels (thresholds) potentially causing critical water levels for a specific catchment. Afterwards, only rainfall and soil moisture information are required to issue warnings. This study applied the principle of FFG to the Wernersbach Catchment (Germany) with excellent data coverage using the BROOK90 water budget model. The rainfall thresholds were determined for durations of 1 to 24 h, by running BROOK90 in “inverse” mode, identifying rainfall values for each duration that led to exceedance of critical discharge (fixed value). After calibrating the model based on its runoff, we ran it in hourly mode with four precipitation types and various levels of initial soil moisture for the period 1996–2010. The rainfall threshold curves showed a very high probability of detection (POD) of 91% for the 40 extracted flash flood events in the study period, however, the false alarm rate (FAR) of 56% and the critical success index (CSI) of 42% should be improved in further studies. The proposed adjusted FFG approach has the potential to provide reliable support in flash flood forecasting.


2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2271-2282 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. J. O'Sullivan ◽  
R. A. Bradford ◽  
M. Bonaiuto ◽  
S. De Dominicis ◽  
P. Rotko ◽  
...  

Abstract. A framework of guiding recommendations for effective pre-flood and flood warning communications derived from the URFlood project (2nd ERA-Net CRUE Research Funding Initiative) from extensive quantitative and qualitative research in Finland, Ireland, Italy and Scotland is presented. Eleven case studies in fluvial, pluvial, coastal, residual and "new" flood risk locations were undertaken. The recommendations were developed from questionnaire surveys by exploring statistical correlations of actions and understandings of individuals in flood risk situations to low, moderate and high resilience groupings. Groupings were based on a conceptual relationship of self-assessed levels of awareness, preparedness and worry. Focus groups and structured interviews were used to discuss barriers in flood communications, explore implementation of the recommendations and to rank the recommendations in order of perceived importance. Results indicate that the information deficit model for flood communications that relies on the provision of more and better information to mitigate risk in flood-prone areas is insufficient, and that the communications process is very much multi-dimensional. The recommendations are aimed at addressing this complexity and their careful implementation is likely to improve the penetration of flood communications. The recommendations are applicable to other risks and are transferrable to jurisdictions beyond the project countries.


Author(s):  
Thomas Nester ◽  
Andreas Schöbel ◽  
Ulrike Drabek ◽  
Christian Rachoy ◽  
Hans Wiesenegger

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