The Expected Duration of Sequential Gossiping

Author(s):  
Hans van Ditmarsch ◽  
Ioannis Kokkinis
Keyword(s):  
Author(s):  
Michael B. Dillard ◽  
Joel S. Warm ◽  
Gregory J. Funke ◽  
W. Todd Nelson ◽  
Victor S. Finomore ◽  
...  

Objective: To determine whether perceived time progression (PTP) moderates participants’ negative reactions to vigilance tasks. Background: Vigilance tasks are rated by participants to be unenjoyable and as having high levels of workload and stress. Based on the adage, “You are having fun when time flies,” we tested the possibility that accelerating PTP might reduce these negative experiences. Method: Two studies were performed, involving a long 30-min and a short 12-min vigil. We manipulated participants’ PTP by creating a mismatch between their expectations about how long they would perform the task and the actual time that they were engaged. Results: PTP was significantly faster for participants who were led to expect that the vigilance task would last longer than it did relative to those led to expect that task duration would be shorter than it actually was and for controls for whom task duration was equal to the expected duration. However, accelerating PTP had no effect in either experiment on undesirable reactions to the vigilance tasks. Participants uniformly rated both tasks as unenjoyable, as having a high level of workload, and as stressful. Apparently, vigilance isn’t fun even when time flies. Conclusion: Our findings greatly underscore the depth to which negative subjective reactions are embedded in the nature of vigilance tasks and therefore that these tasks can have potentially serious costs to participants in terms of health, safety, and productivity. Application: These costs must be considered at the operational level.


2016 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-25
Author(s):  
Arzu Kıbrıs ◽  
Özgür Kıbrıs

AbstractMany modern armed conflicts contain more than two fighting parties, or armed opposition groups that have factions within them. It is the moderates in an armed opposition that governments negotiate with. But the agreement’s fate depends on the approval of all other significant actors within the opposition. We construct a dynamic model of conflict in which such an actor is to decide whether to accept a peace agreement signed by the moderates or not. Using this model we analyze the behavior of our decision maker, focusing on outcomes like the optimal settlement strategy, expected duration of the conflict, and the decision maker’s expected payoff from conflict. We then determine how these outcomes are affected by changes in the conflict environment. Finally, we extend our model to analyze the implications of commitment problems, and the possibility that the conflict ends with military victory of either side.


1968 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-61 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. van Klinken

It is rather a pity that we received only three papers especially devoted to subject 2, “applications of methods of operations research and modern economic theory”. Maybe the time for real applications of operations research techniques in the insurance field has still to come. However, I am convinced that sooner or later such techniques—in connection with the use of the computor—will play a more or less important part in the management of insurance business. An impulse to this of course will be the appearance of —let me say—“textbooks” on this subject; such as the book written by Wolff, Methoden der Unternehmensforschung im Versicherungswesen, Springerverlag 1966, a copy of which I received a few days ago.Meanwhile, the fact that only a few papers have been sent in gives me the opportunity to report on them in some detail and to make a few side remarks.The studies presented are:Borch. Dynamic decision problems in an insurance company, de Leve and Weeda. Driving with Markov-programming.d'Hooge, Franckx and Gennart. Utilisation pratique de la méthode de simulation dans l'assurance “non-life”.The paper Prof. Borch submitted, deals essentially with some problems related with random walk theory. Partly it can be considered to be the counterpart of the classical discontinuous ruin theory as its subject is the expected duration of life of the company and maximisation of the discounted value of dividend payments.The question of calculating the expected duration of life and more specially the means the company has to influence its future lifetime involves reinsurance and utility theory to which topic in recent years Prof. Borch has devoted a number of very interesting publications.


1992 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 519-534 ◽  
Author(s):  
P.-C. G. Vassiliou ◽  
A. A. Papadopoulou

In this paper we introduce and define for the first time the concept of a non-homogeneous semi-Markov system (NHSMS). The problem of finding the expected population stucture is studied and a method is provided in order to find it in closed analytic form with the basic parameters of the system. Moreover, the problem of the expected duration structure in the state is studied. It is also proved that all maintainable expected duration structures by recruitment control belong to a convex set the vertices of which are specified. Finally an illustration is provided of the present results in a manpower system.


2004 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 377-404 ◽  
Author(s):  
DAVID E. LEWIS

The US Congress has often sought to limit presidential influence over certain public policies by designing agencies that are insulated from presidential control. Whether or not insulated agencies persist over time has important consequences for presidential management. If those agencies that persist over time are also those that are the most immune from presidential direction, this has potentially fatal consequences for the president's ability to manage the executive branch. Modern presidents will preside over a less and less manageable bureaucracy over time. This article explains why agencies insulated from presidential control are more durable than other agencies and shows that they have a significantly higher expected duration than other agencies. The conclusion is that modern American presidents preside over a bureaucracy that is increasingly insulated from their control.


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