ANALISIS PENGARUH PEMILIHAN JENIS BEKISTING TERHADAP DURASI DAN BIAYA PELAKSANAAN PEKERJAAN STRUKTUR PROYEK X

ABSTRACTThe planed duration of construction Project X was 730 days with the upper structure targeted to be finished in July 2020. There was delay in the beginning of project implementation and the expected duration became 745 days, the upper structure completion date pushed back to October 2020. In order to keep in line with target, one of the alternatives was to change the formwork material from conventional to aluminium. By applying this change, there was a need to study the effects to the project duration, the upper structure finish date, and the additional cost. To calculate the project duration, and the labour coefficient of productivity using the motion and time study method, the completion time of aluminium formwork work is required. From the calculation, it can be concluded that it was more effective to apply an 8-zone of formwork division in every storey, which will result in 711 days of project duration and the upper structure finish date will be in August 2020. The costs for the aluminium formwork which consisted of materials and labour fees amounted to Rp 7,991,548,555 or higher by Rp 1,000,000,000 compared to conventional formwork. ABSTRAKTarget durasi pekerjaan konstruksi proyek X adalah 730 hari dengan target waktu selesai pekerjaan struktur atas pada bulan Juli 2020. Pada awal pelaksanaan proyek terjadi keterlambatan sehingga diperkirakan menghasilkan durasi proyek 745 hari dan waktu selesai pekerjaan struktur atas menjadi Oktober 2020. Untuk mengejar target proyek, salah satu alternatif yang dapat dilakukan adalah dengan mengganti jenis material bekisting dari konvensional menjadi aluminium. Sehingga dengan penggantian tersebut perlu dilakukan studi pengaruh penggantian jenis bekisting terhadap durasi proyek, waktu selesai pekerjaan struktur atas, dan biaya pekerjaan bekisting. Untuk menghitung durasi proyek, dan koefisien tenaga kerja yang dilakukan dengan metode motion and time study diperlukan waktu pekerjaan bekisting aluminium. Dari perhitungan durasi proyek diperoleh waktu yang lebih efektif adalah dengan pembagian 8 zona yang menghasilkan durasi proyek 711 hari dan waktu selesai pekerjaan struktur atas adalah Agustus 2020. Untuk biaya pekerjaan bekisting aluminium yang terdiri dari biaya material dan biaya upah tenaga kerja didapatkan total biaya adalah Rp 7,991,548,555 atau lebih besar sekitar Rp 1,000,000,000 dibandingkan dengan bekisting konvensional.

News Uncertainty in Brexit United Kingdom

After the Brexit referendum, the behavior of the UK economy defied widespread expectations, as it did not exhibit a V-shaped recession but a slow decline in production. We show that this pattern of propagation arises when uncertainty is about future, rather than current, fundamentals and if the expected duration of uncertainty is sufficiently long. We reach this conclusion within the confines of a heterogeneous firms model featuring news uncertainty rather than conventional uncertainty shocks. In the quantitative analysis, uncertainty is informed by firm-level probability distributions on the expected effect of Brexit on sales. (JEL E22, E23, E24, E32, F15)

P080 BSR national training survey results for rheumatology and GIM dual-accreditation

Background/Aims Following the Shape of Training Report, all Rheumatology registrars commencing training from August 2017 are required to obtain dual-accreditation with General Internal Medicine (GIM). Training time increased from 4 to 5 years. Current trainees have expressed concerns regarding the lack of clarity and standardisation of the structure and duration of GIM training, and the impact on Rheumatology experience. Surveys were developed and disseminated by the British Society for Rheumatology (BSR) Trainees' Committee to explore the national GIM experience and expectations of trainees and Training Programme Directors (TPDs). Methods Two surveys were created by trainees, with support from the BSR. Web links were emailed to all UK Rheumatology trainees and TPDs in February 2020, and remained open for three weeks. The surveys covered: Duration of dedicated rheumatology trainingDuration of 'high intensity' GIM training (defined as night shifts with at least 1 in 8 on-calls)Weekly number of GIM clinics and ward roundsGuidance provided to trainees and TPDs on the expected duration and structure of GIM training. Results 73 responses were analysed from dual-accrediting trainees across the UK. 73% of trainees expected 1.5-3 years of dedicated rheumatology training however, 12% of trainees did not expect any dedicated rheumatology years. Similarly, the expected duration of ‘high intensity’ GIM training varied widely from up to 1 year (10%) to 2.5-3 years (30%). 37% of trainees expected to do more than 3.5 years of 'high intensity' GIM training. During a ‘high intensity’ GIM year, 58% of trainees did not do any GIM clinics (some Deaneries count general rheumatology clinics towards GIM), 34% had one GIM clinic and 8% of trainees had three or more GIM clinics per week. Similarly, the number of average weekly GIM ward rounds varied from none (11%) to 3 or more (55%). Only 62% of trainees confirmed they were aware of the number and 'intensity' of GIM years required during their training. Twelve TPDs completed the survey. 72% of TPDs were able to provide specific guidance on the expected duration and structure of GIM training for ST3 applicants in 2020. Despite this, 83% of TPDs felt that further guidance is required on the length of dedicated rheumatology and GIM training. Free-text comments suggested a move away from describing GIM training as ‘low', 'medium' or 'high intensity’. Conclusion The surveys identified a wide national variation in GIM training structure and duration, and dedicated Rheumatology training for dual-accrediting trainees. This inequality has proved concerning for many trainees. TPDs and trainees felt that further information and standardisation is needed regarding the dedicated time required in Rheumatology and GIM. The results will be discussed at the next Joint Royal College of Physician’s Board (JRCPTB) Specialty Advisory Committee meeting. Disclosure S. Khalid: None. M. Chakravorty: None. C. Godsave: None. S. Yaqub: None. E. Davies: None. M. Rutter: None. S. Shabbir: None. E. Reilly: None.

Anticipating and Planning for the Duration of Counseling

One parameter of the treatment planning process that needs more attention is the expected duration of counseling. Mental health counselors should be prepared to discuss with new clients both the typical duration of counseling and the rate of change that commonly occurs throughout counseling. Mental health counselors should be aware that most of their clients will attend only a few sessions before discontinuing, and they should plan counseling services accordingly. Furthermore, researchers have found that most client improvement occurs within the first few sessions, with diminishing returns as counseling continues, and discontinuation tends to occur when clients reach a level of improvement that they, but perhaps not their counselors, consider to be satisfactory. The purpose of this article is to describe how research on the base rate of counseling and the trajectory of client change can enhance the treatment planning process for both clients and counselors.

Radiotherapy treatment planning for prostate and nodes using variable planning ring

Background:Prostate cancer is one of the most common solid malignancies and has a high morbidity rate. The uncertainty of the prostate location compromises the overall treatment plan optimisation. To account for the location uncertainty, the radiation oncologist needs to expand the margin of the planning target volume (PTV), which may increase the radiation toxicity to organs in proximity.Materials and methods:In this study, we investigated the quality of treatment plans for a patient with different ring sizes (2 and 3 cm). A small ring-shaped structure circumferentially around the PTV helps in defining the location of PTV. Prostate and pelvic node plans were analysed with dose prescription to 99% of PTV.Results:Additional ring-shaped structures led to more conformal dose coverage for target with reduced radiation side effects to nearby organ at risk (OAR). Expected treatment time was slightly higher for 2 cm ring compared to 3 cm ring. In case of prostate, expected duration was 4% higher, while for node plan, expected duration for 2 cm ring was 16% higher compared to 3 cm ring plan.Conclusions:It was observed that using a smaller size ring can lead to improved dose sparing to OAR with same target coverage as with larger dimension ring. The composite plans do not show any clinically significant difference in dose to OARs.

Penerapan Teknik Shaping untuk meningkatkan durasi on-task behavior pada anak dengan masalah atensi

Abstrak. Kemampuan mempertahankan atensi terlihat pada on-task behavior, dimana anak mampu mengerjakan tugas tanpa melakukan kegiatan lain yang tidak berkaitan. On-task behavior menjadi target perilaku yang ingin diintervensi pada S, anak laki-laki berusia 4 tahun 5 bulan dengan diagnosa Attentional Disorder (ICDL-DMIC). Berdasarkan pemeriksaan, rentang atensinya berada dibawah taraf rata-rata anak seusianya dan terlihat dari kesulitannya dalam menyelesaikan kegiatan. Penelitian single-subject ini bertujuan untuk melihat efektivitas dari penerapan teknik shaping dalam meningkatkan durasi on-task behavior pada anak dengan masalah atensi, dengan hipotesa teknik shaping mampu meningkatkan durasi on-task behavior. Terdapat peningkatan durasi saat intervensi diberikan. Dalam intervensi ini, orangtua memiliki peran besar sebagai pemberi prompt dan reinforcement untuk mempermudah proses generalisasi.Kata Kunci: Shaping, On-Task Behavior, Attentional DisorderAbstract. The ability to maintain attention is seen from on-task behavior, when child can do a task without do other unrelated activities. On-task behavior is the targeted behavior to intervene from S, a 4 years 5 months old boy with a diagnosis Attentional Disorder (ICDL-DMIC). Based on asssessment, S has shorter duration of attention than the expected duration of his age and shown on his difficulties in finishing any activities. This single-subject research aims to examine the effectiveness of the application of shaping technique in increasing the duration of on-task behavior, and hypothesized that it’s application will increase on-task behavior’s duration. The result shows that there is an increase in on-task behavior’s duration. In this research, parents took a bigger role as prompt and reinforcer giver to ease the process of generalization. Keywords: Shaping, On-Task Behavior, Attentional Disorder

Penney's Game Odds From No-Arbitrage

Penney's game is a two player zero-sum game in which each player chooses a three-flip pattern of heads and tails and the winner is the player whose pattern occurs first in repeated tosses of a fair coin. Because the players choose sequentially, the second mover has the advantage. In fact, for any three-flip pattern, there is another three-flip pattern that is strictly more likely to occur first. This paper provides a novel no-arbitrage argument that generates the winning odds corresponding to any pair of distinct patterns. The resulting odds formula is equivalent to that generated by Conway's ``leading number'' algorithm. The accompanying betting odds intuition adds insight into why Conway's algorithm works. The proof is simple and easy to generalize to games involving more than two outcomes, unequal probabilities, and competing patterns of various length. Additional results on the expected duration of Penney's game are presented. Code implementing and cross-validating the algorithms is included.