Is the Agricultural Sector Sensitive to the Exchange Rate Depreciation and Volatility Shocks: Evidence from the Balance Sheet Channel

2019 ◽  
pp. 437-465
Author(s):  
Nombulelo Gumata ◽  
Eliphas Ndou
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Balance Sheet Channel ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Depreciation

scholarly journals The Predominance of Balance Sheet Effect versus Competitiveness Effect of Exchange Rate on Brazilian Companies

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 107
Author(s):  
Maria Paula Vieira Cicogna ◽  
Rudinei Toneto Jr ◽  
Mauricio Ribeiro do Valle ◽  
Wilson Tarantin Junior
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
International Market ◽  
Descriptive Statistics ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Econometric Tests ◽  
Foreign Currency Debt ◽  
Exchange Rate Depreciation

The present research argues that the depreciation of the exchange rate has a negative effect on the balance sheet of Brazilian companies with debt in foreign currency. This effect is mainly on commodity exporters, since it is the class of companies with the highest indebtedness in the international market, as showed by the results. At the same time, companies with foreign currency debt showed a reduction in their investments in moments of depreciation of the exchange rate, which indicates the predominance of the balance sheet effect. The conclusions of the study were obtained through descriptive statistics and econometric tests (panel data) to analyze the effect of foreign currency debt and the exchange rate on investment rate. It was verified that the balance sheet effect generated by the exchange rate depreciation is predominant when compared to the competitiveness effect from 2003 to 2015.

scholarly journals Application of Generalized Space Time Autoregressive Model on Farmer Exchange Rate Data in Three Provinces of The Sumatera Island

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 97
Author(s):  
Fadhilatul Nida Aryani ◽  
Sri Sulistijowati Handajani ◽  
Etik Zukhronah
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Rate Data ◽  
Previous Time ◽  
West Sumatra ◽  
Cross Correlations ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Inverse Distance

The agricultural sector has a big role in the development of the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GDP). Therefore the agricultural sector is very important. Besides the agricultural sector, the farmer's welfare also needs to be considered because the agricultural sector will be good if the welfare of farmers is good also. In measuring the level of farmers' welfare, the method used is the farmer's exchange rate. The farmer's exchange rate has a location relationship and a previous time relationship. The Generalized Space-Time Autoregressive (GSTAR) model is a good method of forecasting data that contains time series and location relationships by assuming that the data has heterogeneous characteristics. The purpose of this study is to model the farmer exchange rate data with GSTAR using normalization of cross-correlations weighting and inverse distance in three provinces namely West Sumatra, Bengkulu and Jambi Provinces. Based on data analysis, the best GSTAR model obtained by using the best weighting with the model is GSTAR (11) − I(1) using normalization of cross-correlations because the assumption of normal white noise and multivariate are fulfilled with an RMSE value of 1.097775. The best GSTAR model explains that the exchange rate of West Sumatra farmers is only the previous time, Bengkulu farmers' exchange rate is the previous time and is the exchange rates of farmers of West Sumatra and Jambi, whereas for the exchange rate of farmers of Jambi is the exchange rates of farmers of Bengkulu and West Sumatra and influenced by previous times.Keywords: GSTAR, RMSE, farmers exchange rate, normalization of cross-correlations, inverse distance.

scholarly journals Indikator Kesejahteraan Petani melalui Nilai Tukar Petani (NTP) dan Pembiayaan Syariah sebagai Solusi

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 129
Author(s):  
Cut Muftia Keumala ◽  
Zamzami Zainuddin
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Consumer Goods ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Profit Sharing ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Rice Farmers ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Good Determination

<p>As an agricultural country, attention to the welfare of farmers in Indonesia is considered very strategic. One of the measuring tools for farmers’ welfare that is used today is Farmer’s Exchange Rate (FER). This study aims to examine and explore some of the problems with the exchange rate experienced by farmers, including; Farmer’s Exchange Rate (FER) in identifying the welfare of farmers, determining the increase and decrease of Farmer Exchange Rate (FER) in Indonesia; and the potential of Islamic financing in providing solutions for the welfare of farmers. The results show that the increase in FER is not always good. Determination of the increase and decrease rice farmers’ exchange rates are productivity, grain prices, prices of consumer goods, and prices of fertilizers, the exchange rate of farmers on food and nonfood consumption, and production costs. Shariah schemes can be used as a new alternative to help the interest-free and profit-sharing agricultural sector.</p><p>Sebagai negara agraris perhatian terhadap kesejahteraan petani di Indonesia dinilai sangat strategis. Salah satu alat ukur kesejahteraan petani yang digunakan saat ini adalah Nilai Tukar Petani (NTP). Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji dan menggali beberapa permasalahan terhadap nilai tukar yang dialami petani, antara lain; Nilai Tukar Petani (NTP) dalam mengindentifikasi kesejahteraan petani, penentu peningkatan dan penurunan Nilai Tukar Petani (NTP) pangan di Indonesia; dan potensi pembiayaan syariah dalam memberikan solusi untuk mensejahterakan petani. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Kenaikan NTP tidak selalu baik. Penentu terjadinya kenaikan dan penurunan nilai tukar petani padi adalah produktivitas, harga gabah, harga barang konsumsi, dan harga pupuk, nilai tukar petani terhadap konsumsi makanan dan nonmakanan, serta biaya produksi. Skim syariah dapat dijadikan alternatif baru untuk membantu sektor pertanian yang bebas bunga dan berdasarkan bagi hasil.</p>

Exchange Rate Dynamics, Endogenous Risk Premium and the Balance Sheet Effect: An Effective Demand Model

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 212-239
Author(s):  
Moumita Basu ◽  
Jonaki Sengupta ◽  
Ranjanendra Narayan Nag
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Endogenous Risk ◽  
Exchange Rate Dynamics ◽  
Tariff Liberalization ◽  
Foreign Bonds ◽  
Exchange Rate Depreciation

This article describes a macroeconomic framework for analysing the interaction between output, domestic interest rate and exchange rate in the presence of the endogenous risk premium and balance sheet effect of exchange rate depreciation on investment demand. Output is demand determined. There are three assets: money, domestic bonds and foreign bonds. Domestic bonds and foreign bonds are not perfect substitutes due to the presence of risk premium. The endogenous risk premium depends on certain macroeconomic fundamentals, namely budget deficit and current account balance. Using this framework, we will examine implications of monetary policy, fiscal policy, tariff liberalization and global interest rate hike for exchange rate dynamics and output. The balance sheet effect and the risk premium together explain how an expansionary fiscal policy may generate recession, while tariff liberalization may produce favourable macroeconomic outcomes. Moreover, the model shows that an increase in world interest rate may have contractionary effect on the domestic output level due to the presence of the balance sheet effect of exchange rate depreciation. JEL Classification: E27, E63, F13, F32

Modelling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New Keynesian Framework

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaromir Benes ◽  
Andrew Berg ◽  
Rafael Portillo ◽  
David Vavra
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Balance Sheet Effects ◽  
Exchange Rate Management ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The authors study a wide range of hybrid inflation-targeting (IT) and managed exchange rate regimes, analysing their implications for inflation, output and the exchange rate in the presence of various domestic and external shocks. To this end, the chapter presents an open economy New Keynesian model featuring sterilized interventions in the foreign exchange (FX) market as an additional central bank instrument operating alongside the Taylor rule, and affecting the economy through portfolio balance sheet effects in the financial sector. The chapter shows that there can be advantages to combining IT with some degree of exchange rate management via FX interventions. Unlike ‘pure’ IT or exchange rate management via interest rates, FX interventions can help insulate the economy against certain shocks, especially shocks to international financial conditions. However, managing the exchange rate through FX interventions may also hinder necessary exchange rate adjustments, e.g., in the presence of terms of trade shocks.

Empirical Investigation of the Effects of the Fundamentals on the Exchange Rate

2005 ◽  
pp. 83-110
Author(s):  
Juan R. Castro
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
Target Zone ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Differential ◽  
Exchange Rate Depreciation

This paper examines, by using several econometric techniques, the effects of foreign reserves and other fundamental variables on the exchange rate using the target zone theory. This paper uses monthly data for Chile from January 1979 to November 1997. The data used consists of foreign reserves, credit from the Central Bank, domestic reserves, imports, exports, claims on government, GDP, foreign liabilities, domestic and foreign interest rate. We find that the interest differential does not have any effect on depreciation, rejecting the target zone implication that the domestic interest rate can be used to manage the exchange rate. We find that foreign reserves support the exchange rate by reducing the exchange rate depreciation, and the exchange rate and foreign reserves follow a negative relationship, which supports the assumption that increasing the foreign reserves appreciates the exchange rate.

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