Empirical Investigation of the Effects of the Fundamentals on the Exchange Rate

2005 ◽  
pp. 83-110
Author(s):  
Juan R. Castro
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
Target Zone ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Differential ◽  
Exchange Rate Depreciation

This paper examines, by using several econometric techniques, the effects of foreign reserves and other fundamental variables on the exchange rate using the target zone theory. This paper uses monthly data for Chile from January 1979 to November 1997. The data used consists of foreign reserves, credit from the Central Bank, domestic reserves, imports, exports, claims on government, GDP, foreign liabilities, domestic and foreign interest rate. We find that the interest differential does not have any effect on depreciation, rejecting the target zone implication that the domestic interest rate can be used to manage the exchange rate. We find that foreign reserves support the exchange rate by reducing the exchange rate depreciation, and the exchange rate and foreign reserves follow a negative relationship, which supports the assumption that increasing the foreign reserves appreciates the exchange rate.

scholarly journals Exchange rate and interest rate distribution and volatility under the Portuguese target zone

2010 ◽  
Vol 57 (3) ◽  
pp. 261-282 ◽  
Author(s):  
Duarte Portugal ◽  
Sousa Andrade ◽  
Adelaide Duarte
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
European Monetary System ◽  
European Monetary ◽  
Target Zone ◽  
Rate Distribution ◽  
Economies In Transition ◽  
Portuguese Economy ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The aim of this study is to analyse the exchange rate and interest rate distribution and volatility under the participation of the Portuguese economy in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS) based on some of the main predictions of the target zone literature. Portugal adopted this exchange rate target zone from April 6 1992 until December 31 1998. During this period, the exchange rate distribution reveals that the majority of the observations lie close to the central parity, thus rejecting one of the key predictions of the Paul Krugman (1991) model. The analysis of the data also shows that exchange rate volatility tended to increase as the exchange rate approached the edges of the band, contrary to the predictions of the basic model. Interest rate differential volatility, on the other hand, seemed to behave in line with theoretical predictions. This suggests an increase in the credibility of monetary policy, allowing us to conclude that the adoption of a target zone has contributed decisively to the creation of the macroeconomic stability conditions necessary for the participation in the European Monetary Union (EMU). The Portuguese integration process should therefore be considered as an example to be followed by other small open economies in transition to the euro area.

scholarly journals PERANAN KEBIJAKAN MONETER DALAM MENJAGA STABILITAS PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA SEBAGAI RESPON TERHADAP FLUKTUASI PEREKONOMIAN DUNIA

2007 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-177
Author(s):  
M. Maulana Al Arif ◽  
Achmad Tohari
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
The World ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

This paper analyzes the impact of the inflation and the world interest rate on the Indonesian economy and the effectiveness of the Indonesian central bank policy to adopt the domestic macroeconomic fluctuation.Assuming Indonesia as a small-open economy, the Stuctural Vector Autoregressive Model is utilized on the monthly data during the periode of 1999: 1 – 2004: 12 covering the main domestic macroeconomic indicator (output, price, money supply, interest rate and the exchange rate) and the world oil price and world interest rate as the disturbance source.The analysis provides 2 main results, first, the international variables do have impacts on the domestic variables fluctuation, implying the fragility of the domestic economy due to the external shock, second, the monetary policy is effective on supporting the economic growth and stabilizing the price level. However, the Bank Indonesia policy to stabilize the international shock via the exchange rate channel, contributes to a higher impact of the international shock on domestic interest rate.Keywords: monetary policy, business cycle, SVARJEL Classification: E52, E32, C32, F41

scholarly journals External Debt and its Impact on Exchange Rates in the Philippines

2022 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-103
Author(s):  
Mikayla Mendoza ◽  
Andrew Gonzalez
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The exchange rate is a crucial macroeconomic factor within emerging and transition economies. External debt is a driving force for the growth of an economy. This study then aims to determine the impact of external debt on the exchange rate of the Philippines by examining the impact of external debt accumulation on the Philippines' exchange rates. The researcher applies a correlational time series analysis in order to capture the impact of external debt, debt services on external debt, and foreign reserves on the exchange rate of the Philippines within the period from 1980 to 2019. The relationships between variables based on the developed theoretical framework are analyzed through multiple regression analysis. Empirical results show that external debt and debt services positively impact the exchange rate, while foreign reserves exhibit a negative relationship. The corresponding coefficients indicate that a change in any of the independent variables will cause significant but marginal fluctuations in the exchange rate in the case of the Philippines. The author concludes that external debt encourages the growth of exchange rates in the long run in the case of the Philippines due to its positive relationship. This implies that the Philippine government should aim to focus on more efficient external debt management strategies to enhance the value of the exchange rate of the Philippine Peso relative to other countries. Accordingly, the researcher recommends that the government take the necessary means to reduce the country's external debt to better the economy.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic factors, working capital management, and firm performance—A static and dynamic panel analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarfraz Hussain ◽  
Van Chien Nguyen ◽  
Quang Minh Nguyen ◽  
Huu Tinh Nguyen ◽  
Thu Thuy Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Firm Performance ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Performance ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Panel Analysis ◽  
Working Capital ◽  
Cash Conversion Cycle ◽  
The Exchange Rate

AbstractThe aim of the study is to explore the interaction effect of macroeconomics indicators, and working capital flows on financial performance in a developing economy. By using the static and dynamic approach of panel analysis, it has been shown that there is a relationship between the components of working capital and the gross profit and cash conversion duration. Second, while interest rates used as an interaction variable with the average payable days have adverse effects, firm performance would decrease if interest rates increase. The average payable duration extends; instead of primarily regressing, the average payable period positively correlates with firm performance. The conversion cycle of cash has a negative relationship, but it reverses its actions after using interest rate interaction. There is a negative relationship with gross profit in the simple regression exchange rate and cash conversion cycle while using the second interaction variable with the cash conversion cycle, has positive effects. In addition, the exchange rate gets higher to increase the cash conversion length, financial performance will be increased. In addition, the exchange rate gets higher to increase the cash conversion length, financial performance will be increased. This study receives new results, the exchange rate increases, companies that can pay early to payable will get higher firm performance while exchange rate and the interest rate have a significant role in changing the firm performance.

scholarly journals Determinasi Tingkat Suku Bunga Perbankan di Indonesia

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 122
Author(s):  
Arief Hadi Putra ◽  
Siswoyo Hari Santosa ◽  
Regina Niken Wilantari
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Trigger Factor ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate

The interest rate has an important role to regulate the exchange rate affecting an economy and banking transactions betweencountries.The interest rate as a trigger factor of development of a country has a very important role to cope with the level ofinflation and the exchange rate in the country. In this study, several factors are considered to influence the interest ratesinclude inflation, and exchange rates. The method used is multiple linear regression with time series data. The study wasconducted using monthly data from July 2005 until December 2012. The results of the regression carried out showed thatindlasi positive and significant impact on interest rates. While the exchange rate and no significant negative effect on interestrates.

The Role of Different Channels in Transmitting Monetary Policy into Output and Price in Vietnam

2015 ◽  
pp. 20-40
Author(s):  
Vinh Nguyen Thi Thuy
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rate Channel

The paper investigates the mechanism of monetary transmission in Vietnam through different channels - namely the interest rate channel, the exchange rate channel, the asset channel and the credit channel for the period January 1995 - October 2009. This study applies VAR analysis to evaluate the monetary transmission mechanisms to output and price level. To compare the relative importance of different channels for transmitting monetary policy, the paper estimates the impulse response functions and variance decompositions of variables. The empirical results show that the changes in money supply have a significant impact on output rather than price in the short run. The impacts of money supply on price and output are stronger through the exchange rate and credit channels, but however, are weaker through the interest rate channel. The impacts of monetary policy on output and inflation may be erroneous through the equity price channel because of the lack of an established and well-functioning stock market.

scholarly journals Trends and determinants of raising ECBs in Indian Context

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 01-08
Author(s):  
Ramakant Shukla
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Least Squares Method ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Capital Control ◽  
Global Liquidity ◽  
Robust Least Squares ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Interest Rate Differentials

This study examines the effect of capital control measures initiated during the last two decades in terms of all-in-cost ceilings and enhanced limits on ECB in India over the sample period 2004Q1 to 2020Q2. Using global liquidity, the exchange rate between INR/USD, imports and interest rate differentials as control variables and changes in capital control measures from 2008 to 2011 in the all-in-cost ceiling, and changes in the enhanced limits on ECBs from USD 500 million to USD 750 million under the automatic route in 2012, regression analysis of three ECB series show interesting results. Using Robust Least Squares method, we document that (1) the successive increment in all-in-cost ceilings on ECB from 2008 to 2011 is inducing ECBs to flow, indicating that Indian firms benefit more than they pay due to increase the cost for ECBs having maturities 3<5 years. However, such capital control measures are not effective on ECBs having maturities >5 years.  (2) The effect of the enhanced limits on ECBs from USD 500 million to USD 750 million under the automatic route in 2012 has a pronounced impact on ECB, averaging 1602.1 USD million per quarter. We observed that CCAs in India are initiated in response to the volatility of the exchange rate and global liquidity, imports, and interest rate differentials are significant variables in India's required capital control actions.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Behaviour after Recent Float: The Experience of Pakistan

2004 ◽  
Vol 43 (4II) ◽  
pp. 829-852
Author(s):  
M. Ali Kemal ◽  
Rana Murad Haider
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Purchasing Power Parity ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Open Market ◽  
Market Exchange ◽  
Power Parity ◽  
Traded Goods ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate

Exchange rate is a price of traded goods in the world market. To maintain the commodities competitive in the market, exchange rate should be adjusted according to the change in prices. If it is adjusted accordingly, then we say that purchasing power parity (PPP) holds in that country. However, phenomenon of PPP is completely kicked out under floating exchange rate regime in the short run [see for example, Rogoff (1999); Mark and Choi (1997); MacDonald (1999); Obstfeld and Taylor (1997); Coleman (1995); O’Connel (1998) and Michael, et al. (1997)]. Recent statement by the President of the National Bank of Pakistan, that the exchange rate and the interest rate are two faces of the same coin [Bokhari (2004)], shows that the changes in the exchange rate is strongly associated with the changes in the interest rate differential.1 It is also argued that under free float the value of currency is determined by demand and supply of foreign exchange and to control the value of currency using open market operations interest rate is used as the key monetary policy tool. Moreover, deterioration of trade balance leads to deprecation in exchange to make the exports competitive in the market and vice versa.

scholarly journals Analisis Inflasi di Indonesia (Suatu Pendekatan Model Dinamik)

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 85
Author(s):  
Afrizal Afrizal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Research Data ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate

This study aims to determine the magnitude of the effect of the money supply, the exchange rate of rupiah (exchange rate) and the interest rate on inflation in Indonesia during the period 2000.12016.4. The analysis tools used for this research data are: unit root test, integration degree test, cointegration test, error correction model / ECM. The results showed that all staioner research data at level 1 (first difference) based on cointegration test showed that the variables observed in this study co-integration or have long-term relationship. The ECM model used is valid, as indicated by the error correction term (ECT) coefficient is significant. In the short run the money supply, the exchange rate of rupiah (exchange rate) and the interest rate is not significant to the inflation rate, but in the long term is significant.

scholarly journals An Approach of Vector Autoregression Model for Inflation Analysis in Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Idah Zuhroh ◽  
Hendra Kusuma ◽  
Syela Kurniawati
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Vector Autoregression Model ◽  
Autoregression Model ◽  
The Stability

A control of the inflation rate caused by the fluctuations in foreign exchange reserves, money supply, and exchange rate is required to create the stability of the country's economy. This study aims to analyze the dynamic impact of disturbance factors contained in the variables of foreign exchange reserves, the money supply, and the exchange rate. This research used monthly data from June 2009 to November 2016. It used a method used of Vector Autoregression. The result shows that a foreign exchange reserve has a negative relationship nut not significant effect on inflation, money supply has positive relationship and significant effect on inflation, and exchange rate of rupiah to US dollar has negative relationship and significant effect on inflation. The responce of inflation from shocking occurs to supply, foreign exchange reserves and exchange rate tend to be convergent and the biggest contribution that influences inflation the most is exchange rate beside inflation itself.

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