scholarly journals Post-transitional Demography and Convergence: What Can We Learn from Half a Century of World Population Prospects?

2020 ◽  
pp. 63-87
Author(s):  
Maria Castiglioni ◽  
Gianpiero Dalla-Zuanna ◽  
Maria Letizia Tanturri
Keyword(s):  
Weak Convergence ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Actual Data ◽  
World Population ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Half Century ◽  
And Migration

Abstract After the Demographic Transition, convergence towards similar fertility and mortality levels, is the prevailing hypothesis in UN World Population Prospects Revisions. This chapter questions this assumption of “weak convergence” comparing actual data with the forecasted fertility, mortality, and migration trends computed by UN over the last half century. The “weak convergence” during 1985–2015 is not confirmed in countries that had a Total Fertility Rate below 2.5 children per woman before 1985. Moreover, in the period 2000–2015 the differences between groups of homogeneous countries actually increase. Further research can identify new regularities in order to predict future trends more accurately.

Population

2020 ◽  
pp. 258-276
Author(s):  
Tirthankar Roy
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Demographic Change ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Population History ◽  
World Population ◽  
Initial Size ◽  
Slow Pace ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Population Demographic

India’s population, long-stagnant or growing only at a slow pace, began to grow rapidly from the 1920s. Given the large initial size of the population, demographic change in this region was a turning point in world population history. What had changed to produce this turn? Chapter 10 considers the demographic transition with attention paid to population growth, famines, epidemics, and migration.

Determinants of Fertility in Malaysia — How Much Do We Know?

1992 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 112-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soon Lee Ying
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Marital Fertility ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Recent Trends ◽  
The Postponement

Recent trends in fertility in Malaysia1 have created uncertainty about the course of the demographic transition. While Chinese and Indian fertility continued to decline into the 1980s, since 1978, Malay fertility has levelled off and even risen slightly. Evidence up to the early 1980s suggests that the phenomenon may be temporary, attributed mainly to the bunching of births caused by the postponement of marriage among the Malays. More recent evidence, however, point to sustained levels of high Malay marital fertility through the late 1980s — TFRs (total fertility rate) among Malays averaged 4.5 and above between 1982 and 1987 while Chinese and Indian TFRs continued to fall from 2.7 to 2.3 and 3.8 to 3.5, respectively.

scholarly journals PERAN SUAMI TERHADAP PEMILIHAN KONTRASEPSI IUD DI PRAKTEK MANDIRI BIDAN KABUPATEN SLEMAN

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-86
Author(s):  
Istri Utami
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
World Population

Latar Belakang :Menurut World Population (2015) Indonesia merupakan negara populasibesar ke-5 di dunia dan terbesar di antara 9 negara ASEAN dengan jumlah penduduk 255 jutadan memiliki total fertility rate (TFR) 2,6 dengan rata-rata TFR di ASEAN 2,4. Prevalansipemakaian alat kontrasepsi atau Contraceptive Prevalance Rate (CPR) di Indonesiamenunjukkan tingkat kesertaan ber KB pasangan usia subur (PUS) mencapai 61,9. Penggunaankontrasepsi didominasi oleh penggunaan alat kontrasepsi jangka pendek, terutama suntikanmencapai 31,9% sedangkan tingkat pemakaian metode KB jangka panjang hanya sebesar10,6% (SDKI, 2012).Berdasarkan data BKKBN, pada tahun 2014 pencapaian peserta KB aktifdi Indonesia mencapai 35.202.908 peserta. Dimana penggunaan KB suntikan sebesar16.734.917 (47,54%), pil sebesar 8.300.362 (23,58%), kondom sebesar 1.110.341 (3,15%), IUDsebesar 3.896.081 (11,07%), implant sebesar 3.680.816 (10,46%), MOP sebesar 241.642(0,69%), MOW sebesar 1.238.749 (3,52%). Tujuan penelitian adalah untuk mengetahuigambaran peran suami terhadap pemilihan kontrasespsi IUD Di Bidan Praktek MandiriKabupaten Sleman.Metode: penelitian menggunakan deskriptif kualitatif dengan pendekatan studi Pengumpulandata dengan Indepht Interview (wawancara mendalam), analisa data kualitatif meliputipengumpulan data, reduksi data, penyajian data, dan penarikan kesimpulan. Hasil : Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa peran suami dalam pemilihan alat kontrasepsi IUDmasih terkendala dengan rendahnya pengetahuan suami, sikap permisif suami dalam pemilihankontrasepsi, kurang memanfaatkan media massa dalam mencari informasi dan perlu adanyadukungan promosi kesehatan dari tenaga kesehatan.Kesimpulan : peran suami masih harus ditingkatkan baik dalam segi informasi untukmenambah pengetahuan, dukungan pemanfaatan media massa dan informasi dari tenagakesehatan agar dapat berperan dalam membantu ibu memilih alat kontrasepsi yang sesuaidengan ibuKata kunci: peran suami, pemilihan kontrasepsi, IUD, kualitatif.

Demographic Transition in India: Insights Into Population Growth, Composition, and Its Major Drivers

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Usha Ram ◽  
Faujdar Ram
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Madhya Pradesh ◽  
Life Expectancy At Birth

Globally, countries have followed demographic transition theory and transitioned from high levels of fertility and mortality to lower levels. These changes have resulted in the improved health and well-being of people in the form of extended longevity and considerable improvements in survival at all ages, specifically among children and through lower fertility, which empowers women. India, the second most populous country after China, covers 2.4% of the global surface area and holds 18% of the world’s population. The United Nations 2019 medium variant population estimates revealed that India would surpass China in the year 2030 and would maintain the first rank after 2030. The population of India would peak at 1.65 billion in 2061 and would begin to decline thereafter and reach 1.44 billion in the year 2100. Thus, India’s experience will pose significant challenges for the global community, which has expressed its concern about India’s rising population size and persistent higher fertility and mortality levels. India is a country of wide socioeconomic and demographic diversity across its states. The four large states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan accounted for 37% of the country’s total population in 2011 and continue to exhibit above replacement fertility (that is, the total fertility rate, TFR, of greater than 2.1 children per woman) and higher mortality levels and thus have great potential for future population growth. For example, nationally, the life expectancy at birth in India is below 70 years (lagging by more than 3 years when compared to the world average), but the states of Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan have an average life expectancy of around 65–66 years. The spatial distribution of India’s population would have a more significant influence on its future political and economic scenario. The population growth rate in Kerala may turn negative around 2036, in Andhra Pradesh (including the newly created state of Telangana) around 2041, and in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu around 2046. Conversely, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan would have 764 million people in 2061 (45% of the national total) by the time India’s population reaches around 1.65 billion. Nationally, the total fertility rate declined from about 6.5 in early 1960 to 2.3 children per woman in 2016, a result of the massive efforts to improve comprehensive maternal and child health programs and nationwide implementation of the national health mission with a greater focus on social determinants of health. However, childhood mortality rates continue to be unacceptably high in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh (for every 1,000 live births, 43 to 55 children die in these states before celebrating their 5th birthday). Intertwined programmatic interventions that focus on female education and child survival are essential to yield desired fertility and mortality in several states that have experienced higher levels. These changes would be crucial for India to stabilize its population before reaching 1.65 billion. India’s demographic journey through the path of the classical demographic transition suggests that India is very close to achieving replacement fertility.

scholarly journals Forecasting Fertility Based on Economic Factors

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 48-58
Author(s):  
A. Kashepov
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Pair Correlation ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Socioeconomic Indicators ◽  
Demographic Situation ◽  
Demographic Policy

The Object of the Study: Demographic situation, population reproduction. fertility, fertility factors by group: demographic factors directly included in the number of benefits, subsidies and other measures of state demographic policy, economic factors that have a direct or indirect impact on the demographic situation in General, and the birth rate of the populationThe Subject of Study: fertility Forecasting based on selected groups of factors, using statistical methods, in particular regression equations.The Puroose of the Puroose of the Study is : to Identify the dominant influence of GDP, per capita income, the level of specific budget expenditures and other economic indicators on the main indicators of fertility.The Main Provisions of the Article: according to the calculations of the coefficients of pair correlation, the main indicators of fertility, and the key indicator TFR in particular,- depend not only on the passage of "demographic waves", and the level of costs of the national project "Demography", but also on GDP and other socioeconomic indicators. Traditional fertility projections are based on models that link age-specific fertility rates and the total fertility rate to the number of female populations that vary with the passage of "demographic waves". The ideology of traditional forecasting is the theory of "demographic transition". This article proposes to expand the field of forecasting methods due to a more confident connection of demographic indicators with economic ones. In particular, it is assumed that economic growth, and the resulting increase in specific budget expenditures on social, including demographic, policy, income growth and housing security of the population, can "equalize" the demographic wave, lowering its height and reducing its amplitude. Economic factors, if they are positive, can mitigate the decline in fertility and increase its growth. This addition to the generally accepted, but almost "separated" from the economy theories of "demographic transition", allow to adjust the forecasts of the total fertility rate (TFR). For this correction, the article proposes to use regression equations. This group of equations is suitable when retrospective statistical series of economic indicators for a sufficiently long period of time are available for analysis, and there are official (or generally accepted expert forecasts) for the future. This is the difference between the equations used in the article and more complex mathematical constructions, which offer a certain explanation of the situation, but do not have a statistical base for forecasting. In addition, the proposed equations are simple and effective for use by practitioners, because they do not require complex mathematical programs and can be easily implemented in the Excel processor.

A New Look at the Asian Fertility Transition (Distinguishedl Lecture)

1996 ◽  
Vol 35 (4I) ◽  
pp. 385-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
John C. Caldwell
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Fertility Transition ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Asian Women ◽  
Population Replacement ◽  
Planning Meeting ◽  
Annual Birth Rate

The significance of the Asian fertility transition can hardly be overestimated. The relatively sanguine view of population growth expressed at the 1994 International Conference for Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo was possible only because of the demographic events in Asia over the last 30 years. In 1965 Asian women were still bearing about six children. Even at current rates, today’s young women will give birth to half as many. This measure, namely the average number of live births over a reproductive lifetime, is called the total fertility rate. It has to be above 2— considerably above if mortality is still high—to achieve long-term population replacement. By 1995 East Asia, taken as a whole, exhibited a total fertility rate of 1.9. Elsewhere, Singapore was below long-term replacement, Thailand had just achieved it, and Sri Lanka was only a little above. The role of Asia in the global fertility transition is shown by estimates I made a few years ago for a World Bank Planning Meeting covering the first quarter of a century of the Asian transition [Caldwell (1993), p. 300]. Between 1965 and 1988 the world’s annual birth rate fell by 22 percent. In 1988 there would have been 40 million more births if there had been no decline from 1965 fertility levels. Of that total decline in the world’s births, almost 80 percent had been contributed by Asia, compared with only 10 percent by Latin America, nothing by Africa, and, unexpectedly, 10 percent by the high-income countries of the West. Indeed, 60 percent of the decline was produced by two countries, China and India, even though they constitute only 38 percent of the world’s population. They accounted, between them, for over threequarters of Asia’s fall in births.

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