Human total fertility rate affected by ambient temperatures in both the present and previous generations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Per M. Jensen ◽  
Marten Sørensen ◽  
Jacob Weiner
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Ambient Temperatures

A New Look at the Asian Fertility Transition (Distinguishedl Lecture)

1996 ◽  
Vol 35 (4I) ◽  
pp. 385-398 ◽  
Author(s):  
John C. Caldwell
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Birth Rate ◽  
Fertility Transition ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Asian Women ◽  
Population Replacement ◽  
Planning Meeting ◽  
Annual Birth Rate

The significance of the Asian fertility transition can hardly be overestimated. The relatively sanguine view of population growth expressed at the 1994 International Conference for Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo was possible only because of the demographic events in Asia over the last 30 years. In 1965 Asian women were still bearing about six children. Even at current rates, today’s young women will give birth to half as many. This measure, namely the average number of live births over a reproductive lifetime, is called the total fertility rate. It has to be above 2— considerably above if mortality is still high—to achieve long-term population replacement. By 1995 East Asia, taken as a whole, exhibited a total fertility rate of 1.9. Elsewhere, Singapore was below long-term replacement, Thailand had just achieved it, and Sri Lanka was only a little above. The role of Asia in the global fertility transition is shown by estimates I made a few years ago for a World Bank Planning Meeting covering the first quarter of a century of the Asian transition [Caldwell (1993), p. 300]. Between 1965 and 1988 the world’s annual birth rate fell by 22 percent. In 1988 there would have been 40 million more births if there had been no decline from 1965 fertility levels. Of that total decline in the world’s births, almost 80 percent had been contributed by Asia, compared with only 10 percent by Latin America, nothing by Africa, and, unexpectedly, 10 percent by the high-income countries of the West. Indeed, 60 percent of the decline was produced by two countries, China and India, even though they constitute only 38 percent of the world’s population. They accounted, between them, for over threequarters of Asia’s fall in births.

scholarly journals POPULATION CONTROL POLICIES IN THE SPECIAL REGION OF YOGYAKARTA AFTER TOTAL FERTILITY RATE INCREASED BASED ON IDHS 2017

NATAPRAJA ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-53
Author(s):  
Muhammad Arif Fahrudin Alfana ◽  
Agus Joko Pitoyo ◽  
Rizky Laudiansyah ◽  
Sri Sugiharti
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Population Control ◽  
Control Policy ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Population Growth Rates ◽  
Library Research ◽  
Grand Design ◽  
Qualitative Descriptive ◽  
The Government ◽  
Special Region

This study has two main objectives. The first is to explain the achievement of the value of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in the Special Region of Yogyakarta (DIY). The second is to explain the population control policy after the increase in TFR in DIY results of the 2017 IDHS. The population control policy taken by the DIY government comes from the Grand Design of Population Development document published by the People's Welfare Bureau. The method used in this study is library research. The analyst uses qualitative descriptive. The results showed that according to IDHS data, there had been fluctuations in the value of TFR during 1991-2017. In the last ten years, the pattern of TFR values in DIY has tended to increase. Population control is necessary to prevent this tendency. The policies taken by the government in the future in terms of population control in DIY include suppressing population growth rates, maturing marital age, controlling the value of TFR, and increasing the prevalence of contraception. The DIY government will implement at least this policy until 2035.

scholarly journals Estimation of Fertility due to Contraception in Nepal

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-150
Author(s):  
Bijaya Mani Devkota
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Contraceptive Use ◽  
Population Policy ◽  
Unmet Need ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Background Characteristics ◽  
Unintended Pregnancies ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

  Fertility has an important role for demographic transition and total fertility rate (TFR) which is one component measurements of fertility. Absences of complete and reliable data, a large number of indirect techniques have been developed to estimate demographic parameters. Some of these techniques are based on stable population theory and others are regression equations between the dependent variables, the TFR and the independent variables, the socio economic as well as demographic variables. The unwanted or unintended pregnancies can be avoided through the use of contraceptives; it becomes very important to estimate the births averted or pregnancies stopped by use of contraception. Though there is increase in the use of contraception, still many couples do not use contraception in spite of the fact that they require to use contraception. To satisfy this unmet need of contraception is one of the policy targets of national population policy for population stabilization. In this study, 12862 married females between 15-49 years of age, whose marital duration is more than 5 years, have been taken to study the distribution on different background characteristics and their behavior. Firstly, a regression study was done to know the impact on contraceptive use and further multivariate study has been carried out to know the effect of background characteristics and behavior on absence of birth five years jointly at different sub division. This method is based on the relationship between the Total fertility rate (TFR) and contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR).By using this modified estimate of TFR, birth averted for different area. The variables are CPR that about 71.4 percent variation in TFR can be explained by the first regression approach. The second is based on the relationship between total fertility rate (TFR) and Additive combination of CPR and proportion of currently married females having open birth interval (NPV) explained about 82percent of the variation in TFR. The findings revealed that the TFR calculated by the present method are quite close to the observed values of the TFR. Estimates of births averted and the percent change in births in the absence of contraception, based on the two methods are fairly consistent.

Analysis of selected perinatological indicators in the Slovak Republic in the years 2007–2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 86 (2) ◽  
pp. 102-109
Author(s):  
Miroslav Korbeľ ◽  
◽  
Pavel Kaščák ◽  
zuzana Nižňanská
Keyword(s):  
Birth Weight ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Low Birth Weight ◽  
Perinatal Mortality ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Very Low Birth Weight ◽  
Slovak Republic ◽  
In Utero ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Live Births

Overview Objective: Analysis of perinatal mortality in the Slovak Republic during the years 2007–2018. Methods: Analysis of prospectively collected selected perinatal data in the years 2007–2018. Results: In the year 2007, there were 63 obstetrics units, 51,146 deliveries and that of live births 51,650 in the Slovak Republic. The number of obstetrics units decreased to 51 in the years 2018, the total number of deliveries increased to 57,085 and that of live births increased to 57,773. The total fertility rate in the years 2007–2018 increased from 1.27 to 1.54. The preterm deliveries rate increased from 7.3% in the year 2007 to 8.5% in the year 2010 and decreased to 7% in the year 2018. The perinatal mortality rate decreased from 6.2 in the year 2007 to 4.4 in the year 2017, increased again in the years 2018 to 5.0 and according to the criteria of WHO (World Health Organization) to 6.6 per 1,000 still- and live-births. During the years 2007–2018 at perinatal mortality stillbirth participate with 65%, low birth weight with 63% and severe congenital anomalies with 19%. Transport in utero to perinatological centers in the years 2007–2018 has decreased from 57 to 56% for infants 1,000–1,499 g and from 75 to 73% for infants below 1,000 g. Conclusion: In the year 2017, perinatology in the Slovak Republic reached the best result in the perinatal mortality rate – 4.4‰ (0.44%), but has increased to over 5‰ next year. To further reduce perinatal mortality in the Slovak Republic, it is necessary to improve the prenatal dia­gnosis of severe congenital abnormalities, transport in utero of very low birth weight fetuses, centralization of high-risk pregnancies, obstetric personnel and material-technical equipment of obstetricians and neonatal intensive care units. Keywords: perinatal mortality – preterm delivery – multiple pregnancy – low birth weight – very low birth weight – total fertility rate

Marriage and Fertility Patterns among Jordanians and Syrian Refugees in Jordan

2019 ◽  
pp. 259-288 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maia Sieverding ◽  
Nasma Berri ◽  
Sawsan Abdulrahim
Keyword(s):  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Syrian Refugees ◽  
Marriage Education ◽  
Marriage Age ◽  
First Marriage ◽  
Age At First Marriage ◽  
High Selection ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Transition To Marriage

This chapter examines changes in marriage and fertility among Jordanians and Syrian refugees in Jordan. It finds considerable continuity in marriage practices among Jordanians from 2010 to 2016. Jordanians witnessed very modest increases in median age at first marriage. Education is the main factor associated with later ages at marriage and first birth among women. The cost of marriage among Jordanians has declined since 2010 and is unlikely to have contributed to trends in marriage age. Despite the small increase in age at first marriage, fertility declined among Jordanians from a total fertility rate of 3.9 in 2010 to 3.3 in 2016. Compared to the Jordanians, Syrian refugees experienced an earlier transition to marriage and a higher total fertility rate of 4.4 in 2016. The marriage and fertility patterns of Syrian refugees point to high selection on factors associated with earlier marriage and higher fertility.

scholarly journals Demographic forecasting of population projection in Greece: A Bayesian probabilistic study

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (Supplement_4) ◽  
Author(s):  
D Lamnisos ◽  
K Giannakou ◽  
T Siligari
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Total Fertility Rate ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Fertility Rate ◽  
Replacement Level ◽  
Demographic Aging ◽  
The Social ◽  
Support Ratio

Abstract Background Demographic aging is an emerging issue in Greece, characterized by low fertility and increased life expectancy. Undoubtedly, demographic aging is a challenge for public health not only due to the financing of public pensions, but also for the increasing utilization of health care. Methods The total fertility rate and life expectancy at birth are projected probabilistically using Bayesian hierarchical models and United Nations population data for Greece from the period of 1950 to 2015. These are then converted to age-specific mortality rates and combined with a cohort component projection model. This yields probabilistic projections of total population by sex and age groups, total fertility rate (TFR), female and male life expectancies at birth and potential support ratio PSR (persons aged 20-64 per person 65+) by the year 2100. Results The total population in Greece in 1950 was around 7.5 million, increasing to 11 million based on the 2011 population census but is projected to decline to 7.5 million at 2100. TFR has followed a strong downward trend with 1.4 children per woman in 2005-2010 and is projected to have a slight increase to 1.6 and 1.8 children per woman for 2050 and 2100 with all values being below the replacement-level fertility. Life expectancy is expected to increase to 84 years for men and 88 years for women in 2050, and 90 years for men and 94 years for women in 2100. PSR is expected to decline dramatically from 3 in 2011 to approximately 1.5 in 2050 and 2100. Conclusions Over the years, Greece has lost its youthful structure and has acquired the characteristics of an aging population, reflecting the population distribution of Western countries. Demographic aging is harmful for the economic growth, the social security system, the social assistance, and it is closely linked to national defense and public health. A long-term multidimensional program is recommended to confront the demographic issue based on the previous international experience. Key messages Total fertility rate will be below replacement level and potential support ratio will decline dramatically. A long-term multidimensional program needs to be developed to address the demographic aging.

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