Spatial and Temporal Shifts in the Demographic Development of China at the End of the 20th and the Beginning of the 21st Centuries

The article provides an economic and geographical analysis of the demographic processes in China, considering a set of natural and geographic factors, selected to reflect the influence of the state policy of family planning, as well as the policy for the development of separate regions in the period under study. The methodology included the use of geoinformation technologies, classification method and geographical systematization. Based on the identified spatial differences at the level of provinces, radical and previously absent spatial shifts in the demographic processes in China were established for the first time. They consist in the formation of positive and negative dynamics zones, as well as natural increase and natural decline zones. The demographic balance, for the first time calculated for the provinces of China, for 2010 and 2019, made it possible to indicate the dominance of provinces of a progressive type (53.0%) and a zone of provinces of a regressive type (8.8%). The established trend proves not only a differentiation, but also a spatial polarization at the national level and acts as a phenomenon of modern demographic development in China, in the 21st century. The results of the geographical systematization of the demographic space has practical significance as it provides the opportunity to use this methodology at the microgeographic level in other territories and serves as a scientific justification for the development of the directions of China’s regional demographic policy.

State Policy Towards Demographic Changes in Poland

The aim of the article is to show that the modern civilization of technological, medical, structural and world-view progress determines the negative changes in the structure of families and the growth of the elderly population. Among the research hypotheses, in particular, it should be pointed out that the modern family policy should take into account the procreative context, as well as the family context with the participation of the older generation, as a consumer and participant in market services. The conclusions proposed by the authors concern a number of solutions in the field of social policy. The unfavorable demographic situation in the European Union raises specific challenges for social and demographic policy, among which, we should point out the changes in attitudes and individual behavior towards marriage and starting a family, changes in procreation attitudes, improving the quality of life of all generations, ensuring active participation of all generations in the demographic and socio-economic development of the country. The article has been written using the following research methods: descriptive, comparative and historical analysis.

Characteristics of the reproductive behaviour of the population in Iran and Russia during the Pandemic period COVID-19

Introduction. The urgent issue of the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, which negatively affected the demographic development of the world’s countries, is the search for new effective mechanisms for the development of demographic potential, which is not possible without appropriate justification monitoring data. The aim of the study is to analyze trends in demographic processes and assess the reproductive behavior of the population of Russia and Iran, as well as develop recommendations in the field of monitoring demographic processes, taking into account the need to study their changes as a result of the spread of COVID-19, which seems significant for determining effective directions and measures of demographic policy in terms of increasing the birth rate in Russia and Iran in the post-pandemic period. Materials and methods. The article is based on the data of the official national statistics of the countries (the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation and the Statistical Center of the Islamic Republic of Iran), the international database of the UN Population Division, and sociological information. The general research period is determined by the boundaries from 2000 to 2019. To assess the determination of reproductive behaviour in Russia and Iran, general statistical methods of data analysis were used (for example, indicators of structure, dynamics, implementation of the plan), unique methods of demographic statistics (construction of age and sex pyramids of the population, total fertility rate, and others), methods of sociological research (results are presented as All-Russian sociological research “Demographic well-being of Russians”, conducted with the participation of the authors in 2019-2020 on the territory of 10 constituent entities of Russia). Results. An assessment of fertility trends in Russia and Iran is given, general and specific traits of the character and mechanisms of reproductive behaviour are identified. The substantiation of the improvement of directions and measures of demographic policy is given, taking into account the assessment of its effectiveness. In Russia, it was aimed at increasing the birth rate. In Iran, on the contrary, at decreasing it. In both countries, the policy was very effective - in Russia in 2007-2016. the birth rate for second and subsequent births increased significantly in Iran in the late 1980s-1990s. The decline in fertility was one of the largest in the world. If in Iran the birth rate is now close to the level of simple reproduction of the population (in 2017, the total fertility rate was 2.12), then in Russia, especially after the decline since 2017. In this case, it is far from this level. Conclusion. The article substantiates the need to improve scientific monitoring of the demographic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Statistical Estimates of the Decline of the Russian Fertility: Regional Specifcs

The study focuses on analyzing regional features of the decline in the birth rate in Russia in 2016–2019. Taking into account regional specifcs is crucial when perfecting the implemented measures for improving the general demographic situation in the Russian Federation.The information base of the study contained time series of the total fertility rate in selected Russian regions. The author used methods of descriptive statistics and assessed convergent trends based on the sigma-, beta- and gamma-convergence methods. Spatial effects in regional differentiation of fertility were assessed based on Moran's I.As a result of the analysis, the following features were established. Firstly, in recent years in Russia, there has been a high degree of differentiation in the recorded declining birth rates. Secondly, the processes of falling fertility in the regions have specifc characteristics, the absence of typical trajectories in those subjects where it fell most or least of all. Thirdly, in Russia, there are no pronounced territo rial localizations of the processes of fertility decline. And fourthly, based on a comparison of the birth rate dynamics in Russian regions, no convergent trends have been identifed, i. e., there is no convergence of territorial entities in terms of the birth rate.According to the author, the demographic policy of recent years has not yet responded positively either in terms of birth rate growth or leveling of regional differences. The results obtained indicate that unifed approaches are unsuited to solving the demographic problems of Russian territories, and there is a need for demographic policy measures that take into account regional variability and are aimed at smoothing regional disproportions. Consequently, it is necessary to conduct regular statistical and demographic studies of the specificity of regional situations using methods of convergence and spatial autocorrelation analysis, rarely used in demography

Methodological Issues of Assessing the Effectiveness of Demographic Policy in Relation to Fertility

Evaluating the effectiveness of demographic policy on fertility is important both for identifying measures with the greatest positive impact on fertility dynamics and for identifying ways to improve policy. The article discusses approaches to assessing the effectiveness of demographic policy based on the analysis of statistical information, correlating changes in the share of benefits in income and birth rate dynamics, and the results of sociological research.

On the demand for demographic policy measures (analysis of the all-russian sociological study)

The article analyzes the author's sociological research conducted in 2020 on the demand for demographic policy measures in ten subjects of the Russian Federation. The author notes the need for comprehensive, long-term, effective measures of family policy to build confidence on the part of young people in the reliability and effectiveness of the family policy model.