Modelling the COVID-19 Epidemic Process of Shenzhen and the Effect of Social Intervention Based on SEIR Model

Author(s):  
Wenjie Zhang ◽  
Wai Kin Chan
Author(s):  
Rodrigo Azocar González

RESUMENEl presente artículo es fruto de una investigación de largo alcance que busca generar discusión en torno a los desafíos contemporáneos del Trabajo Social en la construcción de alternativas de intervención social en contextos de diversidad sexual en Chile. La crisis de la norma heterosexual refleja una contemporaneidad marcada por la visibilidad de los grupos históricamente excluidos, reflejo de la sensibilización y cuestionamiento de una masculinidad dominante intrínsecamente exclusora e inalcanzable, como también de procesos de posicionamiento político y cultural de un colectivo presente, pero hasta hace poco invisibilizado, en nuestro país. A través de técnicas etnográficas y la incorporación del concepto de mercado como vehículo de visibilidad, el trabajo propone ideas coherentes con la construcción de una praxis transdisciplinar que responde a la nueva definición de Trabajo Social, en discusión a nivel mundial, como de los procesos de cuestionamiento y mudanza ciudadanos revitalizados en la última década.Palabras clave: Intervención social, diversidad sexual, trabajo social, desafíos. Diversidade sexual e intervenção social: reflexões a partir do Trabalho SocialRESUMOO presente artigo é o resultado de uma pesquisa de longo alcance que procura gerar discussão em relação aos desafios contemporâneos do Trabalho Social na construção de alternativas de intervenção social em contextos de diversidade sexual no Chile. A crise da norma heterossexual reflete uma contemporaneidade marcada pela visibilidade dos grupos historicamente excluídos, reflexo da conscientização e questionamento de uma masculinidade dominante intrinsecamente que exclui e que se apresenta como inatingível, bem como processos de posicionamento político e cultural de um coletivo presente, mas até recentemente invisível em nosso país. Através de técnicas etnográficas e incorporação do conceito de mercado como veículo de visibilidade, o trabalho propõe ideias coerentes com a construçãode uma prática transdisciplinar que respondam à nova definição de TrabalhoSocial, discutido mundialmente, como dos processos de questionamento emudança cidadã revitalizados na última década.Palavras-chave: intervenção social, diversidade sexual, trabalho social,desafios. Sexual diversity and social intervention: Reflections fromsocial workABSTRACTThe current article is the result of a wider research that seeks to generatediscussion about the actual challenges of social work in the constructionof alternatives of social intervention on sexual diversity contexts in Chile.The crisis of the heterosexual regulation reflects a contemporaneity markedby the visibility of the historically excluded groups, as a reflection of thesensitivity and questioning of a dominant manhood inherently excluder andunreachable, as political and positioning processes of a current group, butuntil recently hidden in our country. Through ethnographic technics and theincorporation of the concept of market as a vehicle of visibility, this worksproposes ideas coherent with the construction of a cross-curricular praxisthat responds to the new definition of social work, globally discussed, as wellas the questioning processes and citizen movements during last decade.Keywords: Social intervention, sexual diversity, social work, challenges


2011 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-36
Author(s):  
Corina Lupu ◽  
Corina Rugina ◽  
Maria-Cristina Neagu ◽  
Iulia Adina Neamtiu ◽  
Cristian Pop ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 56-62
Author(s):  
M. I. Gritsay ◽  
M. A. Koroleva ◽  
N. N. Fomkina ◽  
I. S. Koroleva

Aims. The purpose of this study was to identify current epidemiological features of meningococcal infection in Moscow.Materials and methods. Cases of invasive meningococcal disease in Moscow from 2014 to 2018 and the biomaterial from patients with an invasive meningococcal disease were analyzed.Results. The features of the epidemic process of meningococcal disease in Moscow were revealed: increasing in the incidence rate involving teenagers and young adults into the epidemic process; meningococcal strains of serogroups W and A increased in the etiology of the invasive meningococcal disease; high mortality rate.Conclusions. It seems reasonable to recommend vaccination against meningococcal disease by including adolescents, young adults and persons over 65 years old.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aidalina Mahmud ◽  
Poh Ying Lim ◽  
Hayati Kadir Shahar

BACKGROUND On March 18, 2020, the Malaysian government implemented Movement Control Order (MCO) to limit the contact rates among the population and infected individuals. OBJECTIVE The objective of this study was to forecast the trend of the COVID-19 epidemic in Malaysia in terms of its magnitude and duration. METHODS Data for this analysis was obtained from publicly available databases, from March 17 until March 27, 2020. By applying the Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious and Removed (SEIR) mathematical model and several predetermined assumptions, two analyses were carried out: without and with MCO implementation. RESULTS Without MCO, it is forecasted that it would take 18 days to reach the peak of infection incidence. The incidence rate would plateau at day 80 and end by day 94, with 43% of the exposed population infected. With the implementation of the MCO, it is forecasted that new cases of infection would peak at day 25, plateau at day 90 and end by day 100. At its peak, the infection could affect up to about 40% of the exposed population. CONCLUSIONS It is forecasted that the COVID-19 epidemic in Malaysia will subside soon after the mid-year of 2020. Although the implementation of MCO can flatten the epidemiological curve, it also prolongs the duration of the epidemic. The MCO can result in several unfavorable consequences in economic and psychosocial aspects. A future work of an exit plan for the MCO should also be devised and implemented gradually. The exit plan raises several timely issues of re-infection resurgence after MCO are lifted.


Author(s):  
Bernd Brüggenjürgen ◽  
Hans-Peter Stricker ◽  
Lilian Krist ◽  
Miriam Ortiz ◽  
Thomas Reinhold ◽  
...  

Abstract Aim To use a Delphi-panel-based assessment of the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) in order to retrospectively approximate and to prospectively predict the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic progression via a SEIR model (susceptible, exposed, infectious, removed). Methods We applied an evidence-educated Delphi-panel approach to elicit the impact of NPIs on the SARS-CoV-2 transmission rate R0 in Germany. Effectiveness was defined as the product of efficacy and compliance. A discrete, deterministic SEIR model with time step of 1 day, a latency period of 1.8 days, duration of infectiousness of 5 days, and a share of the total population of 15% assumed to be protected by immunity was developed in order to estimate the impact of selected NPI measures on the course of the pandemic. The model was populated with the Delphi-panel results and varied in sensitivity analyses. Results Efficacy and compliance estimates for the three most effective NPIs were as follows: test and isolate 49% (efficacy)/78% (compliance), keeping distance 42%/74%, personal protection masks (cloth masks or other face masks) 33%/79%. Applying all NPI effectiveness estimates to the SEIR model resulted in a valid replication of reported occurrence of the German SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. A combination of four NPIs at consented compliance rates might curb the CoViD-19 pandemic. Conclusion Employing an evidence-educated Delphi-panel approach can support SARS-CoV-2 modelling. Future curbing scenarios require a combination of NPIs. A Delphi-panel-based NPI assessment and modelling might support public health policy decision making by informing sequence and number of needed public health measures.


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