scholarly journals Bayesian Model-Based Approach: Impact on Science and Policy

Author(s):  
Jakub Bijak ◽  
Martin Hinsch ◽  
Sarah Nurse ◽  
Toby Prike ◽  
Oliver Reinhardt

AbstractIn this chapter, we summarise the scientific and policy implications of the Bayesian model-based approach, starting from an evaluation of its possible advantages, limitations, and potential to influence further scientific developments, policy and practice. We focus here specifically on the role of limits of knowledge and reducible (epistemic), as well as irreducible (aleatory) uncertainty. To that end, we also reflect on the scientific risk-benefit trade-offs of applying the proposed approaches. We discuss the usefulness of proposed methods for policy, exploring a variety of uses, from scenario analysis, to foresight studies, stress testing and early warnings, as well as contingency planning, illustrated with examples generated by the Risk and Rumours models presented earlier in this book. We conclude the chapter by providing several practical recommendations for the potential users of our approach, including a blueprint for producing and assessing the impact of policy interventions in various parts of the social system being modelled.

Author(s):  
Elizabeth D. Hutchison

The recognition that ensuring the welfare of children is not possible without addressing the welfare of their female caregivers is notably missing from the child welfare literature. This article seeks to correct this omission by analyzing the welfare of children in the context of societal structures for caregiving. The author places the gender analysis of child welfare in historical context, discusses current themes of gender bias, and analyzes the impact of child welfare policy and practice on several categories of women. Policy implications and practice guidelines for improving the well-being of children are discussed.


2007 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 236-242 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathleen Seiders ◽  
Ross D. Petty

This essay explores the policy implications of the findings in this special section for potential remedies and opportunities for further research in the critical area of obesity. Children are an important focus here both because of the dramatic increase in childhood obesity in recent decades and because they lack the cognitive development and social experience to process marketing communications with the sophistication of adults. In addition, children's food purchase decisions are substantially influenced by their parents. Although packaged food marketers are setting their own voluntary restrictions on products to be marketed during entertainment content targeted at children, the impact of such restrictions is limited because children are substantial viewers of general entertainment content. This essay suggests that more prominent nutrition disclosure oriented toward obesity concerns for both packaged foods and fast-food restaurants should be more fully considered. It further suggests that increased marketing research is needed to better understand children as consumers, the role of parents as gatekeepers, and the differences between ethnic population segments. Marketing research also can contribute to the assessment of the effectiveness of different regulatory approaches adopted by various countries and the viability of mass educational approaches versus individual encouragement by parents, doctors, and others. The authors note that because obesity is a long-term health problem, a longitudinal tracking study would be useful in studying both health effects over time and the effectiveness of various policy interventions.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Kai Gao ◽  
Lijun Ma

This paper conducted an evolutionary game model of the interaction between the governments and communication enterprises and analyzed the impact of the government’s communication security regulation on the innovation decision-making of communication enterprises. The results show that the behavior of the governments depends on the social benefits, rent-seeking benefits, and regulating costs in strict and de security regulations. The communication enterprises’ behavior depends on the benefits of innovation and the costs in R&D and rent-seeking. When government subsidies are relatively inadequate, the communication enterprises’ strategy under government security regulation swings from not-innovation finally to innovation. The policy implications of this study indicate that appropriate de security regulation by the government will help communication enterprises generate a good atmosphere for innovation, and the appropriate increase in subsidies will be more conducive to driving enterprise innovation.


2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 87
Author(s):  
Celestino Vaz Joanguete

A estrutura do trabalho é construída em três momentos: o primeiro  discute a empregabilidade no dispositivo móvel na monitoria de governação. Nesta abordagem a reflexão tráz à superfície a questão do uso das mensagens SMS na monitoria dos processos eleitorais. O segundo momento debruça sobre o telemóvel no processo comunicativo, no qual são enfatizados os últimos progressos tecnológicos das infraestruturas de comunicação; o terceiro momento descreve o impactos da "Economia Móvel" nos processos de desenvolvimento do negócio e transações comerciais, onde se destaca o impacto social dos serviços móveis de consulta, transferências bancárias e pagamentos de serviços.Palavras-chave: Telemóvel; comunicação; economia móvel. ABSTRACTThe structure of the work is built in two stages: The first discusses employability in the governance mobile monitoring device. In this approach to reflect back to the surface the issue of the use of SMS messages in the monitoring of electoral processes. The second phase focuses on the mobile phone in the communicative process in rural areas, which are emphasized in the latest technological advances in communications the impact  infrastructure; the third phase describes the phone incorporating  on business development processes and business transactions, with the focus on consultation with PayPal and services payments.Key-words: Mobile; Communication; Mobile Economy. RESUMENLa estructura de la obra se construye en tres etapas: La primera analiza la empleabilidad en el monitoreo de la gobernabilidad móvil. En este enfoque, la reflexión trae a la superficie la cuestión del uso de mensajes SMS en el seguimiento de los procesos electorales. La segunda fase se centra en el teléfono móvil en el proceso comunicativo, que  enfatiza en los últimos avances tecnológicos en infraestructura de comunicaciones; la tercera fase se describen los impactos de la "Economía Móvil" en el desarrollo de procesos de negocio y las transacciones comerciales, lo que pone de relievo el impacto social de los servicios de consulta móvil, transferencias bancarias y los servicios de pagos.Palabras claves: Móvil; Comunicación; Economia Móvil. ReferênciasAssociação Empresarial de Comunicações de Portugal. Análise de Mercado de Moçambique.  Lisboa: Associação Empresarial de Comunicações de Portugal (ACIST), 2015, p.1-52. Disponível em: http://www.acist.pt/publicacoes/estudos/dados_sobre_mocambique_vopen.pdf.   Acessado em: 28.set.15.GSMA. The Mobile Economy. United Kingdom: GSMA, 2015, p. 1-82.  Disponível em: http://www.gsmamobileeconomy.com/GSMA_Global_Mobile_Economy_Report_2015.pdf.  Acessado em: 28.set.2015.HAMELINK, Cee. A política de comunicação global, Revista Logos, n. 28: Globalização e comunicação internacional, Rio de Janeiro, ano 15, 2008, pp. 10-25.  HILL, Jill. Regulatory Models for broadcasting in Africa.  In: Broadcasting policy and practice in Africa. London: Article 19, 2003, p. 1-233.  Disponível em:  http://www.article19.org/data/files/pdfs/publications/africa-broadcasting-policy.pdf.  Acessado em: 20.mar.2013.LEVINGSTON, Steven. A Evolução dos Sistemas de Informação em África: Um Caminho para a Segurança e a Estabilidade. Washington, D.C.: Centro de Estudos Estratégicos de África, 2011, p. 1-70. Disponível em: http://africacenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/ARP_2_POR.pdf. Acessado em: 30.jan.2012.MACAUHUB. Movitel, Terceiro operador de telefonia móvel de Moçambique  iniciou actividades. Macau: Macauhub, 2015.  Disponível em: http://www.macauhub.com.mo/pt/2012/05/16/movitel-terceiro-operador-de-telefonia-movel-de-mocambique-iniciou-actividade/. Acessado em: 28.set.2015.PNUD. Mobile Technologies and Empowerment: Enhancing human development through participation and innovation. New York, NY: United Nations Development Programme, 2012, p. 1-58.   Disponível em: http://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/librarypage/democratic-governance/access_to_informationande-governance/mobiletechnologiesprimer.html. Acessado em: 02.mai.2014.UNESCO. Turning on Mobile Learning: Illustrative Initiatives and Policy Implications in Africa and Middle East. Paris: United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, 2012, p. 1-41. Disponível em: http://unesdoc.unesco.org/images/0021/002163/216359e.pdf. Acessado em: 17.jun.2014.WORLD BANK. Cities and Climate Change. Washington, D.C.: The Word Bank, 2015. Disponível em: http://www.worldbank.org/projects/P123201/coastal-cities-climate-change?lang=en. Acessado em: 02.out.2015. Disponível em:Url: http://opendepot.org/2718/ Abrir em (para melhor visualização em dispositivos móveis - Formato Flipbooks):Issuu / Calameo


2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 41
Author(s):  
Paulette Andrea Henry

Very often mothers are left to bear the social, emotional and financial burdens of parenting when relationships between parents do not work out. Although fathers claim to yearn for better relationships with their children, poor relations with mothers of their children is often cited as the primary reason for their estranged relationships with their children. Building upon an initial research undertaken to ascertain the impact of child support, father child relationships and family well being, this article will present the findings from a survey undertaken with mothers to garner perspectives on child maintenance and family well-being. It will seek to suggest mechanisms which can influence policy for child maintenance and parent child relations when parents are separated with the intent towards the improvement of child and family wellbeing.


Author(s):  
Alison B. Strang ◽  
Neil Quinn

Abstract The Indicators of Integration framework—a conceptual framework defining core domains of refugee integration—has had a significant impact on the discourse surrounding refugee integration and a major role in shaping policy, practice and academic debate. Drawing on an innovative participatory mapping approach, this study examined the social connections of isolated single refugee men from Iran and Afghanistan (highlighted as particularly marginalized) and the implications for their mental health and wellbeing. Findings indicated very low levels of contact with family, local friends or local services, difficulties establishing trust and few opportunities for reciprocal relationships. The article makes an important contribution to the field of refugee integration in a number of ways. It suggests that the role of trust should be made explicit within the Indicators of Integration framework and be included as a ‘Facilitator’ of integration. It challenges Putnam’s simple binary distinction between bonding and bridging relationships and suggests a new conceptualization based on a continuum between bonds and bridges. It offers theoretical innovation by bringing together the concept of reciprocity with Hobfoll’s resource-conservation model to offer new insights into the way domains of the Framework interact. Its important contribution is in critiquing Putnam’s reliance on the idealization of community solidarity and suggesting conceptualizations of integration must be informed by the impact of intersecting but differentiated communities. Two key priorities emerge for policy and practice: enabling asylum seekers and refugees to develop sufficient close bonding relationships and finding more effective ways of building knowledge and trust of relevant resources and services.


2021 ◽  
pp. 213-257
Author(s):  
Ga Woon Ban

This chapter emphasizes skills retention instead of human capital accumulation, which is prominently featured in the social investment literature. The chapter discovers strong empirical support for the so-called use-it-or-lose-it hypothesis, which is that utilising people's skills at work is critical to retaining human capital. Considerable cross-national differences in human capital depreciation across the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) world point to workplaces as the key site, as differences in workplace organisation may shape differences in how skills are used and, accordingly, differences in human capital depreciation. Considering the differences in skills depreciation, the chapter calls for tailored policy interventions rather than a one-size-fits-all approach. It argues that countries should take different approaches to preserving human capital, depending on their unique patterns of human capital use and depreciation.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Janez Susnik ◽  
Sara Masia ◽  
Daina Indriksone ◽  
Ingrida Bremere ◽  
Lydia Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia ◽  
...  

<p>The water-energy-food-land-climate nexus sectors interact in a complex system operating on many scales. Better understanding this system, and its response to change (e.g. climate change, policy implementation) is urgently required, yet little progress has been made on integrating real policy objectives into nexus models to assess potential nexus-wide impacts of policy decisions. Given current concerns on resource scarcity, and on the growing appreciation of how connected the sectors are, under-standing how the implementation of policy objectives in one area will impact (1) other nexus sectors and (2) potential future system behaviour, is becoming vitally important. Despite this, little progress has been towards such an understanding. In this work, a fully integrated system dynamics model of the water-energy-food-land-climate nexus in Latvia is presented. The model couples all the nexus sectors in a feedback driven modelling framework. Latvia is represented in five distinct yet inter-acting regions, allowing finer scale interrogation of results and policy implications. In addition, real Latvian policies are integrated within various nexus sectors (e.g. a policy to improve crop yields or to expand agricultural lands at the expense of other land use types). Due to the integrated nature of the model, executing any policy will not only have an impact within the policy sector (e.g. water), but the nexus-wide impacts can also be determined (e.g. on GHG emissions). Results show that due to the inter-connectedness, impacts range far more widely than may be anticipated. For example, implementing policies to achieve goals related to cereal land coverage in Latvia prevents the attainment of policy goals relating to emissions reductions. As such, synergies can be identified and harnessed, while trade-offs can be avoided. Policy can then be (re-)designed to maximise nexus-wide benefits. This work is carried out in the framework of the H2020 project SIM4NEXUS, which will deliver 10 more such models exploring the policy impacts on the nexus at different scales (sub-national to European). As such, the work starts to fill a crucial academic and applied knowledge gap: how policies designed for a single sector have impacts that ripple throughout the entire nexus. As such, guidelines for more intelligent policy design can start to be formulated, something that is lacking in current nexus research.</p>


Nutrients ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 710 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie Cassin ◽  
Daniel Buchman ◽  
Samantha Leung ◽  
Karin Kantarovich ◽  
Aceel Hawa ◽  
...  

The concept of food addiction has generated much controversy. In comparison to research examining the construct of food addiction and its validity, relatively little research has examined the broader implications of food addiction. The purpose of the current scoping review was to examine the potential ethical, stigma, and health policy implications of food addiction. Major themes were identified in the literature, and extensive overlap was identified between several of the themes. Ethics sub-themes related primarily to individual responsibility and included: (i) personal control, will power, and choice; and (ii) blame and weight bias. Stigma sub-themes included: (i) the impact on self-stigma and stigma from others, (ii) the differential impact of substance use disorder versus behavioral addiction on stigma, and (iii) the additive stigma of addiction plus obesity and/or eating disorder. Policy implications were broadly derived from comparisons to the tobacco industry and focused on addictive foods as opposed to food addiction. This scoping review underscored the need for increased awareness of food addiction and the role of the food industry, empirical research to identify specific hyperpalatable food substances, and policy interventions that are not simply extrapolated from tobacco.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 453
Author(s):  
Elizabeth McGhee Hassrick ◽  
Jessica Suhrheinrich ◽  
Patricia Schetter ◽  
Allison Nahmias ◽  
Melina Melgarejo ◽  
...  

Autistic students benefit from child-centered goals that align with evidence-based practices (EBPs) that meet their individualized needs, however, most teachers are not trained in how to implement autism-specific EBPs. The challenges do not lie with teachers alone. Professional development (PD) providers, such as district or regional autism experts who train and coach teachers on how to implement autism-specific EBPs, face barriers accessing the needed supports to conduct high-quality PD and lack experience with individualizing their methods for training and coaching teachers. When PD providers have networks of professional support, they can potentially gain access to resources to provide successful individualized coaching for teachers. No research has measured the impact of the social networks of PD providers on their performance as coaches in classrooms for teachers of autistic students. To test the hypothesis that social network resources can impact the performance of PD providers who coach teachers how to use EBPs for their autistic students, we conducted social network analysis with PD providers. Findings suggest that network factors were associated with the self-reported performance for PD providers. PD providers who have more people in their networks who were autism EBP experts, as well as more people in their networks who supported them with how to individualize their PD efforts to specific teachers or districts, had higher performance as teacher coaches. We discuss future research about how to support network development for PD providers and policy implications.


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