An Agent-Based Model of Infectious Diseases that Incorporates the Role of Immune Cells and Antibodies

2021 ◽  
pp. 171-201
Author(s):  
Shigeaki Ogibayashi
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Immune Cells ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based

scholarly journals Exploring the effectiveness of a COVID-19 contact tracing app using an agent-based model

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonatan Almagor ◽  
Stefano Picascia
Keyword(s):  
High Rate ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
The Social ◽  
Behavioural Factors ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Different Levels ◽  
User Rate

AbstractA contact-tracing strategy has been deemed necessary to contain the spread of COVID-19 following the relaxation of lockdown measures. Using an agent-based model, we explore one of the technology-based strategies proposed, a contact-tracing smartphone app. The model simulates the spread of COVID-19 in a population of agents on an urban scale. Agents are heterogeneous in their characteristics and are linked in a multi-layered network representing the social structure—including households, friendships, employment and schools. We explore the interplay of various adoption rates of the contact-tracing app, different levels of testing capacity, and behavioural factors to assess the impact on the epidemic. Results suggest that a contact tracing app can contribute substantially to reducing infection rates in the population when accompanied by a sufficient testing capacity or when the testing policy prioritises symptomatic cases. As user rate increases, prevalence of infection decreases. With that, when symptomatic cases are not prioritised for testing, a high rate of app users can generate an extensive increase in the demand for testing, which, if not met with adequate supply, may render the app counterproductive. This points to the crucial role of an efficient testing policy and the necessity to upscale testing capacity.

Endogenous Uncertainty and the Dynamics of Constraints

2019 ◽  
pp. 246-260
Author(s):  
Paul Humphreys
Keyword(s):  
Utility Maximization ◽  
Social Dynamics ◽  
Fitness Landscape ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Endogenous Uncertainty ◽  
The Commons ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Special Case

An agent- based model of social dynamics is introduced using a deformable fitness landscape, and it is shown that in certain clearly specifiable situations, strategies that are different from utility maximization outperform utility maximizers. Simulation results are presented and intuitive interpretations of the results provided. The situations considered occur when individuals' actions affect the outcomes for other agents and endogenous effects are dominant. The Tragedy of the Commons is merely a special case of this. Arguments are given that constraints are to be encouraged in some circumstances. The appropriate role of constraints in various types of society is assessed and their use justified in identifiable types of situations.

An Agent-Based Model of Insurance and Protection Decisions on IT Systems

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Juan Luis Santos
Keyword(s):  
Information Systems ◽  
Theoretical Approach ◽  
Information Systems Security ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Security Vulnerabilities ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Systems Security ◽  
It Systems ◽  
Game Theoretical Approach

This paper discusses the key role of incentives in information systems security. Vulnerabilities can be reduced, and even removed, if individual motivations are taken into account in the process of protection and insurance design. The article first discusses the importance of externalities, free-riding behavior, uncertainty and the incentives mismatch between individuals and organizations involved in information systems security. Previous works perform this study using a game theoretical approach but the paper shows that an agent-based model is capable of including the heterogeneity and interrelations among individuals, not focusing on the reached equilibrium but on the dynamics prior to its emergence.

scholarly journals Investigation of the essential role of platelet-tumor cell interactions in metastasis progression using an agent-based model

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abhineet Uppal ◽  
Sean C Wightman ◽  
Sabha Ganai ◽  
Ralph R Weichselbaum ◽  
Gary An
Keyword(s):  
Tumor Cell ◽  
Essential Role ◽  
Cell Interactions ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based

scholarly journals Data-Driven Computational Model to Assess the Risk of Epidemics in Global Mass Gatherings

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sultanah Alshammari ◽  
Armin Mikler
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Computational Models ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Agent Based Model ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Mass Gatherings ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Health Related ◽  
The Impact

ObjectiveTo develop a computational model to assess the risk of epidemics in global mass gatherings and evaluate the impact of various measures of prevention and control of infectious diseases.IntroductionGlobal Mass gatherings (MGs) such as Olympic Games, FIFA World Cup, and Hajj (Muslim pilgrimage to Makkah), attract millions of people from different countries. The gathering of a large population in a proximity facilitates transmission of infectious diseases [1]. Attendees arrive from different geographical areas with diverse disease history and immune responses. The associated travel patterns with global events can contribute to a further disease spread affecting a large number of people within a short period and lead to a potential pandemic. Global MGs pose serious health threats and challenges to the hosting countries and home countries of the participants [2]. Advanced planning and disease surveillance systems are required to control health risks in these events. The success of computational models in different areas of public health and epidemiology motivates using these models in MGs to study transmission of infectious diseases and assess the risk of epidemics. Computational models enable simulation and analysis of different disease transmission scenarios in global MGs. Epidemic models can be used to evaluate the impact of various measures of prevention and control of infectious diseases.MethodsThe annual event of the Hajj is selected to illustrate the main aspects of the proposed model and to address the associated challenges. Every year, more than two million pilgrims from over 186 countries arrive in Makkah to perform Hajj with the majority arriving by air. Foreign pilgrims can stay at one of the holy cities of Makkah and Madinah up to 30-35 days prior the starting date of the Hajj. The long duration of the arrival phase of the Hajj allows a potential epidemic to proceed in the population of international pilgrims. Stochastic SEIR (Susceptible−Exposed−Infected−Recovered) agent-based model is developed to simulate the disease transmission among pilgrims. The agent-based model is used to simulate pilgrims and their interactions during the various phases of the Hajj. Each agent represents a pilgrim and maintains a record of demographic data (gender, country of origin, age), health data (infectivity, susceptibility, number of days being exposed or infected), event related data (location, arrival date and time), and precautionary or health-related behaviors.Each pilgrim can be either healthy but susceptible to a disease, exposed who are infected but cannot transmit the infection, or infectious (asymptomatic or symptomatic) who are infected and can transmit the disease to other susceptibles. Exposed individuals transfer to the infectious compartment after 1/α days, and infectious individuals will recover and gain immunity to that disease after 1/γ days. Where α is the latent period and γ is the infectious period. Moving susceptible individuals to exposed compartment depends on a successful disease transmission given a contact with an infectious individual. The disease transmission rate is determined by the contact rate and thetransmission probability per contact. Contact rate and mixing patterns are defined by probabilistic weights based on the features of infectious pilgrims and the duration and setting of the stage where contacts are taking place. The initial infections are seeded in the population using two scenarios (Figure 1) to measure the effects of changing, the timing for introducing a disease into the population and the likelihood that a particular flight will arrive with one or more infected individuals.ResultsThe results showed that the number of initial infections is influenced by increasing the value of λ and selecting starting date within peak arrival days. When starting from the first day, the average size of the initial infectious ranges from 0.05% to 1% of the total arriving pilgrims. Using the SEIR agent-based model, a simulation of the H1N1 Influenza epidemic was completed for the 35-days arrival stage of the Hajj. The epidemic is initiated with one infectious pilgrim per flight resulting in infected 0.5% of the total arriving pilgrims. As pilgrims spend few hours at the airport, the results obtained from running the epidemic model showed only new cases of susceptible individuals entering the exposed state in a range of 0.20% to 0.35% of total susceptibles. The number of new cases is reduced by almost the same rate of the number of infectious individuals following precautionary behaviors.ConclusionsA data-driven stochastic SEIR agent-based model is developed to simulate disease spread at global mass gatherings. The proposed model can provide initial indicators of infectious disease epidemic at these events and evaluate the possible effects of intervention measures and health-related behaviors. The proposed model can be generalized to model the spread of various diseases in different mass gatherings, as it allows different factors to vary and entered as parameters.References1. Memish ZA, Stephens GM, Steffen R, Ahmed QA. Emergence of medicine for mass gatherings: lessons from the Hajj. The Lancet infectious diseases. 2012 Jan 31;12(1):56-65.2. Chowell G, Nishiura H, Viboud C. Modeling rapidly disseminating infectious disease during mass gatherings. BMC medicine. 2012 Dec 7;10(1):159.

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