Damage Scenario and Economic Losses Estimation of Historical Earthquakes Occurred in Northeastern Italy

2021 ◽  
pp. 740-748
Author(s):  
Lorenzo Hofer ◽  
Mariano Angelo Zanini
Keyword(s):  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Damage Scenario ◽  
Northeastern Italy

scholarly journals Estimating stand-level economic impacts of black bear damage to intensively managed forests

2018 ◽  
Vol 48 (7) ◽  
pp. 758-765 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristina N. Kline ◽  
Jimmy D. Taylor ◽  
Anita T. Morzillo
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Black Bear ◽  
Forest Growth ◽  
Total Loss ◽  
Black Bears ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Damage Scenario ◽  
Forest Growth Model ◽  
Intensively Managed

Black bears (Ursus americanus Pallas, 1780) peel conifers in early spring to forage on energy-rich vascular tissues, resulting in damage to timber stands. The objective of our study was to develop and demonstrate a conceptual framework and methods for estimating stand-level volume and economic losses from black bear damage. We created tree lists from surveys of healthy and bear-damaged trees in timber stands of western Washington and Oregon. The forest growth model Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) was used to project stand volume under two damage scenarios and an undamaged scenario. One damage scenario (salvage) accounted for mortality and volume losses of fully and partially girdled trees; a second scenario (total loss) assumed complete loss of all trees peeled by black bears, regardless of peeling severity. The Fuel Reduction Cost Simulator (FRCS) was applied to estimate the value of logs delivered to the mill after accounting for logging and hauling costs associated with harvest. Present value of stands was calculated to translate volume losses into economic losses associated with bear damage. Economic losses ranged from 4% to 16% (salvage) and from 17% to 46% (total loss) of net present value. Our approach can be adapted for other forest settings and for forest management plans that assess wildlife damage.

scholarly journals A Damage Scenario for the 2012 Northern Italy Earthquakes and Estimation of the Economic Losses to Residential Buildings

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 326-341 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabrizio Meroni ◽  
Thea Squarcina ◽  
Vera Pessina ◽  
Mario Locati ◽  
Marco Modica ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Northern Italy ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Damage Scenario

scholarly journals Study on Analogy Calculation Method for Seismic Vulnerability of Earth-Wood Structure Houses

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Rushan Liu ◽  
Deyuan Tian
Keyword(s):  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Calculation Method ◽  
Seismic Vulnerability ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Wood Structure ◽  
Seismic Capacity ◽  
Wood Structures ◽  
Factors Affecting

Earth-wood structure houses often cause large casualties and economic losses in historical earthquakes. Therefore, it is estimated that the seismic vulnerability of civil structures in areas that have not experienced earthquakes is of great significance for earthquake prevention and disaster reduction. In this paper, an analogy calculation method was proposed for calculating the seismic vulnerability of earth-wood structure houses in unknown regions from the seismic vulnerability of earth-wood structure houses in known regions. Firstly, the main factors affecting the seismic capacity of earth-wood structure houses were determined, and the weights of influence of influencing factors on the overall seismic capacities of buildings under different seismic intensities were determined by using the fuzzy analytical hierarchy approach; secondly, the relative seismic capacities of the main influencing factors are analogically scored by considering the differences in influencing factors in different regions. Finally, based on the vulnerability matrix of earth-wood structure houses in existing regions and comprehensive evaluation of relative seismic capacities of earth-wood structures, the vulnerability matrix of unknown earth-wood structures was calculated by analogy. The results of trial calculation showed that this method has higher reliability and effectiveness. At the end of the article, the vulnerability analysis of earth-wood structure houses in Shigatse, Tibet, was carried out using this method, and the vulnerability curve was initially given.

scholarly journals Historical Earthquakes and Their Socioeconomic Consequences in China: 1950–2017

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. 2728 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin He ◽  
Jidong Wu ◽  
Cailin Wang ◽  
Mengqi Ye
Keyword(s):  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Spatiotemporal Pattern ◽  
Logarithmic Scale ◽  
Seismic Zone ◽  
Historical Earthquake ◽  
Earthquake Disaster ◽  
The North ◽  
Socioeconomic Consequences

Understanding the spatiotemporal pattern of historical earthquake disasters and resultant socioeconomic consequences is essential for designing effective disaster risk reduction measures. Based on historical earthquake disaster records, this study compiles a Chinese earthquake disaster catalog (CH-CAT) that includes records of 722 earthquake disasters that occurred during 1950–2017 in the mainland of China. This catalog includes more complete data records than other existing global earthquake databases for China as a whole. Statistical results demonstrate that the number of earthquake disasters and the resultant direct economic losses (DELs) exhibit significant increasing trends (p < 0.01) over the studied 68-year period. Earthquake-induced deaths vary greatly between individual years and exhibit no significant trend. The Qinghai-Tibet seismic zone is the area with the highest frequency of earthquake disasters and the largest accumulated DELs, whereas the North China seismic zone is associated with the highest number of deaths. Among the 722 earthquake disasters, nearly 99.0% of deaths and 95.0% of DELs are attributable to 1.8% and 3.9% of the earthquake disasters, respectively. Approximately 54.2% of recorded earthquake disasters have earthquake magnitude (Ms) values between 5.0 and 5.9, while earthquake disasters with Ms greater than or equal to 7.0 account for 88.5% of DELs and 98.8% of deaths. On average, earthquake-induced DELs and deaths increase nonlinearly with increasing Ms per earthquake. DELs have a positive correlation with deaths and casualties on a logarithmic scale. This study further discusses that during different stages of socioeconomic development, changes in both exposure and vulnerability may be the major factors leading to change differences in earthquake-induced socioeconomic consequences. This study is a beneficial supplement to the global earthquake database and is useful for calibrating global or regional empirical loss models.

Estimating Economic Losses from Earthquakes Using an Empirical Approach

2013 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 309-324 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kishor Jaiswal ◽  
David J. Wald
Keyword(s):  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Economic Data ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
Rapid Loss ◽  
Multiplicative Factor ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Recent Earthquakes ◽  
Country Specific

We extended the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) empirical fatality estimation methodology proposed by Jaiswal et al. (2009) to rapidly estimate economic losses after significant earthquakes worldwide. The requisite model inputs are shaking intensity estimates made by the ShakeMap system, the spatial distribution of population available from the LandScan database, modern and historic country or sub-country population and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, and economic loss data from Munich Re's historical earthquakes catalog. We developed a strategy to approximately scale GDP-based economic exposure for historical and recent earthquakes in order to estimate economic losses. The process consists of using a country-specific multiplicative factor to accommodate the disparity between economic exposure and the annual per capita GDP, and it has proven successful in hindcast-ing past losses. Although loss, population, shaking estimates, and economic data used in the calibration process are uncertain, approximate ranges of losses can be estimated for the primary purpose of gauging the overall scope of the disaster and coordinating response. The proposed methodology is both indirect and approximate and is thus best suited as a rapid loss estimation model for applications like the PAGER system.

Present-day seismic activity in the Mugello Basin and adjoining areas (Northern Apennines, Italy)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca Bruni ◽  
Giacomo Corti ◽  
Michele D'Ambrosio ◽  
Andrea Fiaschi ◽  
Carlo Giunchi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tectonic Setting ◽  
Normal Fault ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Northern Apennines ◽  
Tectonic Activity ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Depth Interval ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Stress Regime ◽  
Ground Shaking

&lt;p&gt;The Northern Apennines is a NW-SE striking fold-and-thrust belt composed of a pile of NE-verging tectonic units that developed during Cenozoic collision between the European plate (Corso&amp;#8211;Sardinian block) and the Adria plate. Seismicity and geodetic data indicate that contemporaneous crustal shortening (in the external, Adriatic part) and extension (in the internal, Tyrrhenian side) characterize the current tectonic activity of the Apennines. The region around the Mugello basin (Northern Tuscany) represents one of the most important seismogenic areas of the Northern Apennines. Large historical earthquakes have occurred, such as the M=6.0, 1542 and the M=6.4, 1919 events. Its proximity to densely-urbanized areas and the potential impact of strong earthquakes on the cultural heritage in the nearby (~30km) city of Florence makes a better knowledge of the seismicity in the Mugello basin a target of paramount importance. Unresolved issues regard (i) the exact location and geometry of the fault(s) which produced the 1542 and 1919 earthquakes, (ii) the mechanism driving the abrupt transition from an extensional to compressional stress regime at the internal and external sides of the belt, respectively, and (iii) geometry of and role played by a close-by transfer zone oriented transversely (NE-SW) to the main strike of the belt. To address these problems, in early 2019 we initiated a project aiming at improving the knowledge about the seismo-tectonic setting of the basin and adjoining areas. At first, we integrated all the available seismic catalogs for the area, obtaining more than 12000 earthquakes spanning the 2005-2019 time interval. These data have been used to derive a minimum-misfit, 1-D velocity model to be subsequently used for a travel times inversion 3D tomography. At the same time, we Installed 9 temporary seismic stations, complementing the permanent networks presently operating in the area. This new deployment recorded a Mw=4.5 earthquake that struck the NW margin of the basin on Dec. 9, 2019. The mainshock and the ~200 aftershocks precisely delineate a 5-km-long, NW-striking and SW-dipping fault which extends over the 6-9 km depth interval. The focal mechanism of the mainshock yields consistent results, indicating a normal fault striking N105&amp;#176;E and dipping about 45&amp;#176;. This fault appears to be distinct from that (those) activated during the two last important sequences in the area, which occurred in 2008 and 2009. The earthquake caused unexpected, large accelerations (PGA~0.24g at ~7km epicentral range), provoking damages that resulted in the evacuation of more than 150 residents and economic losses of several millions of euro. Sample horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios at the most damaged sites report significant amplification within the 1-5 Hz frequency range, likely responsible for the anomalous ground shaking. Given the proximity of the aforementioned fault to that inferred for the 1542 (and, possibly, 1919) earthquake(s), a detailed study of the 2019 seismic sequence is expected to shed new light into the overall dynamics of the basin.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Simulating Historical Earthquakes in Existing Cities for Fostering Design of Resilient and Sustainable Communities: The Ljubljana Case

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (14) ◽  
pp. 7624
Author(s):  
Anže Babič ◽  
Matjaž Dolšek ◽  
Jure Žižmond
Keyword(s):  
Earthquake Engineering ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Historical Earthquakes ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Building Stock ◽  
Existing Building ◽  
Natural Catastrophes ◽  
Local Decision ◽  
The Republic

The seismic exposure of urban areas today is much higher than centuries ago. The 2020 Zagreb earthquake demonstrated that European cities are vulnerable even to moderate earthquakes, a fact that has been known to earthquake-engineering experts for decades. However, alerting decision-makers to the seismic risk issue is very challenging, even when they are aware of historical earthquakes that caused natural catastrophes in the areas of their jurisdiction. To help solve the issue, we introduce a scenario-based risk assessment methodology and demonstrate the consequences of the 1895 Ljubljana earthquake on the existing building stock. We show that a 6.2 magnitude earthquake with an epicentre 5 km north of Ljubljana would cause many deaths and severe damage to the building stock, which would likely lead to direct economic losses higher than 15% of the GDP of the Republic of Slovenia. Such an event would be catastrophic not only for the community directly affected by the earthquake but for the entire country. We have disseminated this information over the course of a year together in addition to formulating a plan for enhancing the community seismic resilience in Slovenia. Hopefully, local decision-makers will act according to their jurisdiction in Slovenia and persuade decision-makers across Europe to update the built environment renovation policy at the European level.

The Microscopy of Compatibility and Incompatibility in Ulmus

1985 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. 504-505
Author(s):  
B. L. Redmond ◽  
Christopher F. Bob
Keyword(s):  
Dutch Elm Disease ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Hybrid Progeny ◽  
Ulmus Pumila ◽  
Ulmus Americana ◽  
American Elm ◽  
Asian Species ◽  
Ulmus Parvifolia ◽  
Initial Appearance ◽  
Chinese Elm

The American Elm (Ulmus americana L.) has been plagued by Dutch Elm Disease (DED), a lethal disease caused by the fungus Ceratocystis ulmi (Buisman) c. Moreau. Since its initial appearance in North America around 1930, DED has wrought inexorable devastation on the American elm population, triggering both environmental and economic losses. In response to the havoc caused by the disease, many attempts have been made to hybridize U. americana with a few ornamentally less desirable, though highly DED resistant, Asian species (mainly the Siberian elm, Ulmus pumila L., and the Chinese elm Ulmus parvifolia Jacq.). The goal is to develop, through breeding efforts, hybrid progeny that display the ornamentally desirable characteristics of U. americana with the disease resistance of the Asian species. Unfortunately, however, all attempts to hybridize U. americana have been prevented by incompatibility. Only through a firm understanding of both compatibility and incompatibility will it be possible to circumvent the incompatibility and hence achieve hybridization.

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