Application of S-curve and Modified S-curve in Transition Economies’ GDP Forecasting. Visegrad Four Countries Case

Author(s):  
Rafał Siedlecki ◽  
Daniel Papla ◽  
Agnieszka Bem
Keyword(s):  
2004 ◽  
pp. 126-141
Author(s):  
A. Chernyavsky ◽  
K. Vartapetov

By employing the methodology developed by the OECD the paper assesses the degree of revenue decentralization in Russia in comparison with other post-communist European countries. The paper provides theoretical arguments underpinning fiscal decentralization, analyzes the composition of subnational government revenues, the level of regional and local tax autonomy and types of intergovernmental fiscal transfers. The analysis presents the composition of revenues depending on the degree of subnational and local government control. In comparison with other transition countries fiscal decentralization in Russia is relatively low. It is concluded that Russia's public finance reform has not progressed towards providing greater fiscal autonomy for regional and local governments.


2005 ◽  
pp. 36-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Buzgalin ◽  
A. Kolganov

The limited ability of neoclassical "mainstream" to explain deep fundamental shifts in economic structures of the present day world determines the renaissance of alternative schools of economic theory, including Marxism. The article is aimed to show theoretical concepts of modern Russian neomarxism, which has a potential to explain the contradictions of the capitalist globalization, the tendencies of forming new types of socioeconomic relations, of the specific forms of transition economies in the post-socialist countries and basic causes of the birth and collapse of the socialist system.


2009 ◽  
pp. 85-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Rustamov

The article considers strategic issues of modernization of the transition economy. The analysis is based on the methodology of the World Economic Forum where special attention is paid to the sequence of the transformation stages. The main conclusion is that modernization should combine implementation of the governance mechanisms with the beneficial use of comparative advantages of the national culture. In fact, modernization of the transition economy should be evolutionary. It is precisely this course of development that is relevant for Azerbaijan which has successfully upgraded its economy in the recent years.


2009 ◽  
pp. 75-84
Author(s):  
V. Popov

Why have many transition economies succeeded by pursuing policies which are so different from the radical economic liberalization (shock therapy) that is normally credited for the economic success of countries of Central Europe? First, optimal policies are context dependent, they are specific for each stage of development and what worked in Slovenia cannot be expected to work in Mongolia. Second, even for the countries with the same level of development reforms that are necessary to stimulate growth are different; they depend on the previous history and on the path chosen. The reduction of government expenditure as a share of GDP did not undermine significantly the institutional capacity of the state in China, but in Russia and other CIS countries it turned out to be ruinous. The art of the policymaker is to create markets without causing government failure, as happened in many CIS countries.


2005 ◽  
pp. 61-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Navoi

The article is devoted to actual questions of introducing convertibility of the ruble. The structure and definitions of convertibility are considered. On the basis of the international experience the economic essence of convertibility as a source of additional income of the states-emissioners is revealed. The sequence of stages of convertibility in advanced economies is presented, basic problems of introducing convertibility in developing as well as in transition economies are studied. The experience of transition to convertibility of the ruble and corresponding consequences for the Russian economy are analyzed.


Author(s):  
Elena Makarycheva

The aim of the article is to develop a method for calculating water losses from irrigation channels in determining the permeability of rock in the zone of filtration flow on the basis of the law of infiltration A.N. Kostyakov using the results of studies of free filtration from pits and foundation pits in loess loams. Pressure movement of water in irrigation canals is subject to the laws of two-phase flow, in which – in contrast to the Darcy law for the zone of saturation plays an important role, the volume and its change in time. The filtration rate (VF) increases with increasing rock moisture (θ) along the S-curve, while the pressure gradient (I = dh/dz) decreases. The dependences of these parameters on the pressure are represented by power functions, and their product CDP = VFI does not change in time and can serve as a characteristic of the filtration flow under the channel. When installing paired piezometers near the water chore line in the channel and determining the graph I(t) by the value of the twophase flow constant CDP, it is possible to calculate the filtration rate at a number of times and the water losses during unsteady filtration. Water losses from the channels at equilibrium humidity increases with increasing head according to the formula A.N. Kostyakova, in which the water permeability of rocks is characterized by a steady filtration rate at a head of 1.0 m, and the gradient is the function of pressure. The application of the proposed method of calculating losses in the design of irrigation systems will increase the reliability of the justification of the volume of anti-filtration measures and the forecast of the groundwater level.


2004 ◽  
Vol 54 (3) ◽  
pp. 273-296
Author(s):  
G. W. Kolodko

Equity issues in policymaking are difficult to resolve because they are linked not only to the economic situation but also to social constraints and political conflicts within a country. This is even more true in the case of post-socialist economies during their transition to a market system in the era of globalisation. The historical and irreversible process of liberalisation and integration of capital, goods and services, and labour markets into one world market, as well as the gradual construction of new institutions and the process of privatisation cause a significant shift in the income pattern of post-socialist emerging markets. Contrary to expectations, inequality increases affecting the standard of living and long-term growth. While globalisation contributes to the long-term acceleration of economic growth and offers a chance for many countries and regions to catch up with more advanced economies, it results in growing inequality both between the countries and within them. On average, the standard of living increases, but so does the gap between the rich and the poor. Therefore, equality issues should always be of concern to policymakers, especially in the early years of the change of regime in post-socialist transition economies.


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