Changes of Mean Sea Level and Ice Conditions in Gdynia as Indicators of Climate Changes in the Gulf of Gdañsk

The Gulf of Gdansk is located in the southern part of the Baltic Sea. The shores of the Gulf are dominated by the sandy barriers which have developed in front of the Vistula Lagoon and the Vistula Delta Plain to the south-east and south and in front of the Puck Lagoon in the north-west such as the Hel Peninsula. Cliffs occur on the western coast of the Gulf. Neolithic settlements around the coast of the Gulf of Gdansk are mainly located at the foot of the upland slope and on the Vistula Spit and the Vistula Delta and are closely related to the rise and displacement of the shoreline during the Late Holocene. Pollen analyses of the sediment cores from the Vistula Delta, the Vistula Lagoon and the coast of the Puck Lagoon allow four anthropogenic phases to be distinguished in the area of the Gulf of Gdansk. It has been shown that the first indicators of an early husbandry economy in the vicinity of the Gulf of Gdansk appeared in the Atlantic Period. Pollen grains of plants related to this kind of human activity those of the goosefoot family (Chenopodiaceae), motherwort (Artemisia), sorrel (Rumex) are present and the first pollen grains of the plantain (Plantago lanceolata) also appear. The second anthropogenic phase of Neolithic settlement is one of the best investigated cultures. This is the Rzucewo Culture. Pollen analyses indicate increasing human activity at the beginning of the Subboreal Period. The preserved traces of fauna show that the seal hunting and fishing economy was preferred. Radiocarbon dating of archaeological artifacts indicates the beginning of the settlement at ca. 2 400 B.C. (ca. 4 400 years B.P.) (Król 1997). The altitude of peat and marine mollusks shells and their radiocarbon age shows that during the Early Subboreal Period the water level rose from ca. 2.8 m to 1.1 m below the present-day sea level. The date of the beginning of the seal hunters settlement correlates well with the period when the shores of the Puck Lagoon approached their recent position. The development of the Neolithic settlement on the Puck Bay coast as well as those on the Vistula Delta, where the main activity was related to amber processing, seal hunting and fishing, clearly shows a close relationship to the sea-level rise. The occurrence of the third and fourth settlement phases was related to the high sea-level stands in the Subboreal and Subatlantic Periods (post-Littorina, Late Holocene regressions) but their character was still strongly related to the coastal environments. The settlement was connected with the dry habitats whose areas increased after the development of the barriers. In the area of the Vistula Delta, settlement conditions depended mainly on the stages of the delta's development. On the shores of Puck Bay, however, the intensity of settlement was closely related to the water level changes.

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Note on Selection of Coordinate Systems for Geodynamics

International Astronomical Union Colloquium ◽

10.1017/s0252921100051174 ◽

1975 ◽

Vol 26 ◽

pp. 395-407

Author(s):

S. Henriksen

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

The Other ◽

Coordinate Systems ◽

Mean Sea Level ◽

The Earth ◽

The One ◽

Static Systems ◽

Selection Of

The first question to be answered, in seeking coordinate systems for geodynamics, is: what is geodynamics? The answer is, of course, that geodynamics is that part of geophysics which is concerned with movements of the Earth, as opposed to geostatics which is the physics of the stationary Earth. But as far as we know, there is no stationary Earth – epur sic monere. So geodynamics is actually coextensive with geophysics, and coordinate systems suitable for the one should be suitable for the other. At the present time, there are not many coordinate systems, if any, that can be identified with a static Earth. Certainly the only coordinate of aeronomic (atmospheric) interest is the height, and this is usually either as geodynamic height or as pressure. In oceanology, the most important coordinate is depth, and this, like heights in the atmosphere, is expressed as metric depth from mean sea level, as geodynamic depth, or as pressure. Only for the earth do we find “static” systems in use, ana even here there is real question as to whether the systems are dynamic or static. So it would seem that our answer to the question, of what kind, of coordinate systems are we seeking, must be that we are looking for the same systems as are used in geophysics, and these systems are dynamic in nature already – that is, their definition involvestime.

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Holocene diatom biostratigraphy of the SW Gulf of Gdańsk, Southern Baltic Sea (part III)

Oceanological and Hydrobiological Studies ◽

10.2478/v10009-008-0017-x ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 37 (4) ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Małgorzata Leśniewska ◽

Małgorzata Witak

Keyword(s):

Baltic Sea ◽

The South ◽

Gulf Of Gdańsk ◽

The Baltic Sea ◽

Southern Baltic Sea ◽

Gulf Of Gdansk ◽

Southern Baltic ◽

The Baltic ◽

Palaeoenvironmental Changes

Holocene diatom biostratigraphy of the SW Gulf of Gdańsk, Southern Baltic Sea (part III)The palaeoenvironmental changes of the south-western part of the Gulf of Gdańsk during the last 8,000 years, with reference to the stages of the Baltic Sea, were reconstructed. Diatom analyses of two cores taken from the shallower and deeper parts of the basin enabled the conclusion to be drawn that the microflora studied developed in the three Baltic phases: Mastogloia, Littorina and Post-Littorina. Moreover, the so-called anthropogenic assemblage was observed in subbottom sediments of the study area.

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Deterministic approach for multiple-source tsunami hazard assessment for Sines, Portugal

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-15-2557-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 15 (11) ◽

pp. 2557-2568 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

M. Wronna ◽

R. Omira ◽

M. A. Baptista

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Wave Height ◽

Hazard Assessment ◽

Test Site ◽

Tsunami Hazard ◽

Deterministic Approach ◽

Flow Depth ◽

Mean Sea Level ◽

Tsunami Hazard Assessment ◽

The Impact

Abstract. In this paper, we present a deterministic approach to tsunami hazard assessment for the city and harbour of Sines, Portugal, one of the test sites of project ASTARTE (Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe). Sines has one of the most important deep-water ports, which has oil-bearing, petrochemical, liquid-bulk, coal, and container terminals. The port and its industrial infrastructures face the ocean southwest towards the main seismogenic sources. This work considers two different seismic zones: the Southwest Iberian Margin and the Gloria Fault. Within these two regions, we selected a total of six scenarios to assess the tsunami impact at the test site. The tsunami simulations are computed using NSWING, a Non-linear Shallow Water model wIth Nested Grids. In this study, the static effect of tides is analysed for three different tidal stages: MLLW (mean lower low water), MSL (mean sea level), and MHHW (mean higher high water). For each scenario, the tsunami hazard is described by maximum values of wave height, flow depth, drawback, maximum inundation area and run-up. Synthetic waveforms are computed at virtual tide gauges at specific locations outside and inside the harbour. The final results describe the impact at the Sines test site considering the single scenarios at mean sea level, the aggregate scenario, and the influence of the tide on the aggregate scenario. The results confirm the composite source of Horseshoe and Marques de Pombal faults as the worst-case scenario, with wave heights of over 10 m, which reach the coast approximately 22 min after the rupture. It dominates the aggregate scenario by about 60 % of the impact area at the test site, considering maximum wave height and maximum flow depth. The HSMPF scenario inundates a total area of 3.5 km2.

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Tropical cyclone simulations over Bangladesh at convection permitting 4.4 km & 1.5 km resolution

Scientific Data ◽

10.1038/s41597-021-00847-5 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 8 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Hamish Steptoe ◽

Nicholas Henry Savage ◽

Saeed Sadri ◽

Kate Salmon ◽

Zubair Maalick ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Wind Speed ◽

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Sea Level ◽

Tropical Cyclones ◽

Weather Forecasting ◽

Sea Level Pressure ◽

Mean Sea Level ◽

Level Pressure ◽

Medium Range ◽

Gust Speed

AbstractHigh resolution simulations at 4.4 km and 1.5 km resolution have been performed for 12 historical tropical cyclones impacting Bangladesh. We use the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting 5th generation Re-Analysis (ERA5) to provide a 9-member ensemble of initial and boundary conditions for the regional configuration of the Met Office Unified Model. The simulations are compared to the original ERA5 data and the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) tropical cyclone database for wind speed, gust speed and mean sea-level pressure. The 4.4 km simulations show a typical increase in peak gust speed of 41 to 118 knots relative to ERA5, and a deepening of minimum mean sea-level pressure of up to −27 hPa, relative to ERA5 and IBTrACS data. The downscaled simulations compare more favourably with IBTrACS data than the ERA5 data suggesting tropical cyclone hazards in the ERA5 deterministic output may be underestimated. The dataset is freely available from 10.5281/zenodo.3600201.

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Flooding Conditions at Aveiro Port (Portugal) within the Framework of Projected Climate Change

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering ◽

10.3390/jmse9060595 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (6) ◽

pp. 595

Author(s):

Américo Soares Ribeiro ◽

Carina Lurdes Lopes ◽

Magda Catarina Sousa ◽

Moncho Gomez-Gesteira ◽

João Miguel Dias

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Sea Level ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Storm Surges ◽

Historical Period ◽

Return Periods ◽

Wave Regime ◽

Mean Sea Level ◽

Sea Levels ◽

Far Future

Ports constitute a significant influence in the economic activity in coastal areas through operations and infrastructures to facilitate land and maritime transport of cargo. Ports are located in a multi-dimensional environment facing ocean and river hazards. Higher warming scenarios indicate Europe’s ports will be exposed to higher risk due to the increase in extreme sea levels (ESL), a combination of the mean sea level, tide, and storm surge. Located on the west Iberia Peninsula, the Aveiro Port is located in a coastal lagoon exposed to ocean and river flows, contributing to higher flood risk. This study aims to assess the flood extent for Aveiro Port for historical (1979–2005), near future (2026–2045), and far future (2081–2099) periods scenarios considering different return periods (10, 25, and 100-year) for the flood drivers, through numerical simulations of the ESL, wave regime, and riverine flows simultaneously. Spatial maps considering the flood extent and calculated area show that most of the port infrastructures' resilience to flooding is found under the historical period, with some marginal floods. Under climate change impacts, the port flood extent gradually increases for higher return periods, where most of the terminals are at high risk of being flooded for the far-future period, whose contribution is primarily due to mean sea-level rise and storm surges.

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Approaching Sea-Level Rise (SLR) Change: Strengthening Local Responses to Sea-Level Rise and Coping with Climate Change in Northern Mozambique

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering ◽

10.3390/jmse9020205 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (2) ◽

pp. 205

Author(s):

Serafino Afonso Rui Mucova ◽

Ulisses Miranda Azeiteiro ◽

Walter Leal Filho ◽

Carina Lurdes Lopes ◽

João Miguel Dias ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Ecosystem Services ◽

Sea Level Rise ◽

Sea Level ◽

North Coast ◽

Coastal Regions ◽

Mean Sea Level ◽

Representative Concentration Pathways ◽

Local Responses ◽

Ipcc Report ◽

Global Estimates

Mean sea-level is expected to rise significantly by 2100 in all scenarios, including those compatible with the objectives of the Paris Climate Agreement. Global sea level rise projections indicate devastating implications for populations, ecosystem services and biodiversity. The implications of the sea-level rise (SLR) on low-lying islands and coastal regions and communities are substantial and require deep-rooted coping measures. In the absence of adequate responses for coping, Mozambique is expected to record huge losses, with an impact on the economy and development in many sectors of its coastal regions mainly in northern Mozambique. This research aimed to perform projections on SLR in Mozambique, and to understand its role and implications on the north coast of the country. SLR was estimated through the analysis of model outputs that support the global estimates of the fifth IPCC report near the Mozambican coast, for each of the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios. Regional coastline retreat and coastal erosion were estimated through the results of global sandy coastlines projections developed by Vousdoukas. Mean sea-level rise projections indicate that regional estimates for the Mozambican coast are relative higher than global estimates (~0.05 m) for all representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Yet, we highlight significant differences in sea-level rises of 0.5 m, 0.7 m or 1.0 m by 2100 compared to the global mean. It is expected that with the increase in the mean sea level in the northern part of the Mozambican coast, erosive effects will increase, as well as the retreat of the coastline until 2100. With this, the tourism sector, settlements, ecosystem services and local populations are expected to be significantly affected by 2050, with increased threats in 2100 (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). Local responses for coping are proposed and properly discussed for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios through 2100.

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The application of satellite altimetry in establishing regional mean sea level

2011 International Conference on Remote Sensing, Environment and Transportation Engineering ◽

10.1109/rsete.2011.5965115 ◽

2011 ◽

Author(s):

Xinghua Zhou ◽

Cuiyu Sun ◽

Ning Lei ◽

Huayi Zhang

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Satellite Altimetry ◽

Mean Sea Level

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“Grey swan” storm surges pose a greater coastal flood hazard than climate change

Ocean Dynamics ◽

10.1007/s10236-021-01453-0 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Kevin Horsburgh ◽

Ivan D. Haigh ◽

Jane Williams ◽

Michela De Dominicis ◽

Judith Wolf ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Tide Gauge ◽

Storm Surges ◽

Natural Variability ◽

Major Incident ◽

Dynamical Response ◽

Mean Sea Level ◽

Coastal Flood ◽

Extreme Storm ◽

Observational Record

AbstractIn this paper, we show that over the next few decades, the natural variability of mid-latitude storm systems is likely to be a more important driver of coastal extreme sea levels than either mean sea level rise or climatically induced changes to storminess. Due to their episodic nature, the variability of local sea level response, and our short observational record, understanding the natural variability of storm surges is at least as important as understanding projected long-term mean sea level changes due to global warming. Using the December 2013 North Atlantic Storm Xaver as a baseline, we used a meteorological forecast modification tool to create “grey swan” events, whilst maintaining key physical properties of the storm system. Here we define “grey swan” to mean an event which is expected on the grounds of natural variability but is not within the observational record. For each of these synthesised storm events, we simulated storm tides and waves in the North Sea using hydrodynamic models that are routinely used in operational forecasting systems. The grey swan storms produced storm surges that were consistently higher than those experienced during the December 2013 event at all analysed tide gauge locations along the UK east coast. The additional storm surge elevations obtained in our simulations are comparable to high-end projected mean sea level rises for the year 2100 for the European coastline. Our results indicate strongly that mid-latitude storms, capable of generating more extreme storm surges and waves than ever observed, are likely due to natural variability. We confirmed previous observations that more extreme storm surges in semi-enclosed basins can be caused by slowing down the speed of movement of the storm, and we provide a novel explanation in terms of slower storm propagation allowing the dynamical response to approach equilibrium. We did not find any significant changes to maximum wave heights at the coast, with changes largely confined to deeper water. Many other regions of the world experience storm surges driven by mid-latitude weather systems. Our approach could therefore be adopted more widely to identify physically plausible, low probability, potentially catastrophic coastal flood events and to assist with major incident planning.

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