Disaster Governance in an Urbanising World Region

Abstract In comparative works on nationalism, Latin America is usually portrayed as a world region that is devoid of nationalist and separatist movements, while in Europe nationalist movements seeking greater self-determination or separate statehood can be easily observed. This article takes a different perspective. Applying the concept of territorial autonomy movements, it pursues a cross-regional comparison of Santa Cruz in Bolivia, Guayas in Ecuador, and Catalonia in Spain to show that movements strikingly similar with regards to their core claims, diagnostic frames, and tactics do in fact exist across the Iberian world. The chapter then draws on social movement theory to account for the recent intensification of territorial autonomy mobilizations in these cases. We argue that in all three substate units (1) threats of political exclusion emanating from contestations over established power-sharing arrangements triggered territorial grievances; (2) the formation of dense associational networks and new alliances with subnational party and state representatives enhanced the organizational resources of territorial challengers; and (3) broader protest cycles, and their concern with direct democracy and/or multicultural group rights, provided territorial challengers with new framing strategies to justify their demands.

Download Full-text

Predictive performance of international COVID-19 mortality forecasting models

Nature Communications ◽

10.1038/s41467-021-22457-w ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Joseph Friedman ◽

Patrick Liu ◽

Christopher E. Troeger ◽

Austin Carter ◽

Robert C. Reiner ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Predictive Performance ◽

Absolute Error ◽

Decision Makers ◽

Government Interventions ◽

World Region ◽

Mortality Forecasting ◽

Forecasting Models ◽

Pandemic Response ◽

Alternative Scenarios ◽

Absolute Percent Error

AbstractForecasts and alternative scenarios of COVID-19 mortality have been critical inputs for pandemic response efforts, and decision-makers need information about predictive performance. We screen n = 386 public COVID-19 forecasting models, identifying n = 7 that are global in scope and provide public, date-versioned forecasts. We examine their predictive performance for mortality by weeks of extrapolation, world region, and estimation month. We additionally assess prediction of the timing of peak daily mortality. Globally, models released in October show a median absolute percent error (MAPE) of 7 to 13% at six weeks, reflecting surprisingly good performance despite the complexities of modelling human behavioural responses and government interventions. Median absolute error for peak timing increased from 8 days at one week of forecasting to 29 days at eight weeks and is similar for first and subsequent peaks. The framework and public codebase (https://github.com/pyliu47/covidcompare) can be used to compare predictions and evaluate predictive performance going forward.

Download Full-text

Correction to: Post-discharge prognosis of patients admitted to hospital for heart failure by world region, and national level of income and income disparity (REPORT-HF): a cohort study

The Lancet Global Health ◽

10.1016/s2214-109x(20)30294-1 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 8 (8) ◽

pp. e1001

Author(s):

Jasper Tromp ◽

Sahiddah Bamadhaj ◽

John G F Cleland ◽

Christiane E Angermann ◽

Ulf Dahlstrom ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Heart Failure ◽

Cohort Study ◽

National Level ◽

Income Disparity ◽

Post Discharge ◽

World Region

Download Full-text

What's in a Word? Falsified/Counterfeit/Fake Medicines - The Definitions Debate

Medicine Access Point of Care ◽

10.5301/maapoc.0000008 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 1 ◽

pp. maapoc.0000008 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Mike Isles

Keyword(s):

World Wide ◽

Criminal Activity ◽

Access To Medicines ◽

World Region ◽

The Public ◽

Counterfeit Medicine ◽

The World ◽

Falsified Medicines ◽

Trademark Protection ◽

Exact Size

There is a rising tide of criminal activity to manufacture and distribute falsified, counterfeit, or fake medicines. The exact size of this problem is unknown but estimates vary from US$75 billion to US$200 billion per year, and evidence clearly demonstrates it is on the increase. Depending on the world region, infiltration into the legitimate supply chain versus the illegitimate (e.g., the internet) varies greatly. However, what is certain is that the direction of travel by regulatory agents is to develop supply chains that allow access to medicines via the World Wide Web. Within this context, there has been a long-running debate about how to correctly describe the various forms of medicines that are fraudulently or otherwise manufactured and distributed. This article attempts to describe the evolution of the definitions and recommends that a consensus be formed to describe such medicines that reach the public: • Falsified medicine: This being the term used and defined in the Falsified Medicines Directive and which is primarily concerned with public health. • Counterfeit medicine: This is closely associated and legally defined within intellectual property legislation and concentrates on trademark protection. • Fake medicine: This is the term that best serves to communicate with the public to raise awareness about the phenomenon.

Download Full-text

The role of infant nutrition in the global epidemic of non-communicable disease

Proceedings of The Nutrition Society ◽

10.1017/s0029665116000057 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 75 (2) ◽

pp. 162-168 ◽

Cited By ~ 25

Author(s):

Atul Singhal

Keyword(s):

Early Life ◽

Infant Nutrition ◽

Communicable Disease ◽

Bottle Feeding ◽

Postnatal Life ◽

World Region ◽

Global Epidemic ◽

Main Determinants ◽

The Impact

Non-communicable diseases (NCD) and atherosclerotic CVD in particular, are the most important health problems of the 21st century. Already in every world region except Africa, NCD account for greater mortality than communicable, maternal, perinatal and nutritional conditions combined. Although modifiable lifestyle factors in adults are the main determinants, substantial evidence now suggests that factors in early life also have a major role in the development of NCD; commonly referred to as the Developmental Origins of Health and Disease hypothesis. Factors in utero, early postnatal life and throughout childhood, have been shown to affect NCD by influencing risk factors for CVD such as obesity, diabetes, hypertension and dyslipidaemia. Infant nutrition (e.g. breastfeeding rather than bottle feeding) and a slower pattern of infant weight gain have been shown to be particularly protective against later risk of obesity and CVD in both low- and high-income countries. The mechanisms involved are poorly understood, but include epigenetic changes; effects on endocrine systems regulating body weight, food intake and fat deposition; and changes in appetite regulation. As a consequence, strategies to optimise early life nutrition could make a major contribution to stemming the current global epidemic of NCD. This review will consider the role of early life factors in the development of NCD, focusing on the impact of infant nutrition/growth on obesity and CVD. The review will highlight the experimental (randomised) evidence where available, briefly summarise the underlying mechanisms involved and consider the implications for public health.

Download Full-text

Intersexual and intrasexual selection for neck musculature in men: Attractiveness, dominance, and actual fighting success

10.31234/osf.io/yez3t ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Neil Robert Caton ◽

David M. G. Lewis

Keyword(s):

Sexual Dimorphism ◽

Evolutionary Biology ◽

Theoretical Work ◽

Human Anatomy ◽

Geometric Morphometric ◽

World Region ◽

Sexual Characteristics ◽

Neck Strength ◽

Neck Musculature ◽

Secondary Sexual

Countless organisms are equipped with physiological armor that reduce damage from opponents. Because humans have sustained a long evolutionary history of hand-to-hand combat, selection would have been placed on morphological structures which reduce rotational acceleration to the head and increase the likelihood of victory. Grounded in over 60 years of sports performance theory and recent theoretical work in evolutionary biology, geometric morphometric analyses revealed that larger neck musculature in professional combatants (N = 715) was associated with greater real-world fighting success, after for adjusting for allometry (Study 1). Because sexual dimorphism emerges from selection on morphological structures that improve men’s fighting success, we then discovered that the human neck is the most sexually dimorphic feature of human anatomy when compared to 91 other anatomical features (N = 6,068; Study 2). This male-biased sexual dimorphism held after controlling for these 91 allometric measurements, and held across every world region (Africa, Asia, Europe, Oceania, and North, Central, and South America). Because human psychological systems consequently evolved to attend to men’s secondary sexual characteristics, we discovered that men (N = 564 stimuli) with larger neck musculature (Study 3: geometric morphometrics; Study 4: physiological neck strength; Study 5: photorealistic stimuli) are rated (N = 772 raters) as stronger, more masculine, and higher in fighting ability and short-term attractiveness, after accounting for allometry. Combined, our research introduced a new secondary sexual characteristic to the biological, anthropological, and psychological sciences: the human neck.

Download Full-text