scholarly journals Baldwin versus Cecchini revisited: the growth impact of the European Single Market

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonne Lehtimäki ◽  
David Sondermann
Keyword(s):  
Control Method ◽  
Single Market ◽  
Growth Effect ◽  
Market Area ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
European Single Market ◽  
Real Gdp Per Capita ◽  
The Common

AbstractThe European Single Market created a common market for millions of Europeans. However, 30 years after its introduction, it appears that the benefits of the common European project are occasionally being questioned at least by some parts of the population. Others, by contrast, strive for deeper integration. Against this background, we empirically gauge the growth effect that arose from the Single Market. Using the synthetic control method, we establish the growth premium for the Single Market overall and for its founding members. Broadly in line with the predictions made by Richard Baldwin at the onset of the Single Market project, we find significantly higher real GDP per capita for the overall Single Market area of around 12–22 %. In comparison, smaller EU Member States seem to have benefited somewhat more compared to larger countries. The estimated growth effects underline the case for further deepening and broadening the Single Market where possible.

scholarly journals Does the European Single Market Exist in the Era of a Coronavirus Pandemic? The Case of Intra and Extra-EU Trade in COVID-19-related Products

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-83
Author(s):  
Adam A. Ambroziak ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Single Market ◽  
Free Movement ◽  
Member States ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Eu Legislation ◽  
European Single Market ◽  
Free Movement Of Goods ◽  
The Times ◽  
The Eu

The COVID-19 pandemic has been an extraordinary event for the EU Member States and a period wherein EU legislation and the efficiency of EU institutions have been put to the test. The crisis triggered by the decisions made by governments in Europe (which were motivated by their wishes to protect the health and lives of their peoples and to satisfy the rapid demand for drugs, personal protective equipment, and medical devices) disrupted market forces. Although most of these measures were based on both domestic and EU legislation, they seriously hindered the smooth functioning of the EU Single Market, including the free movement of goods. This paper aims to find out whether EU legislation succeeded in coping with the challenges triggered by COVID-19 in the field of international trade and whether measures taken by the European Commission with a view to complying with the rules of the EU Single Market adequately took care of the needs stemming from the COVID-19 outbreak and whether it properly tackled protectionist instruments adopted by the Member States. We have focused on international trade and the free movement of goods within the EU as they both constitute the cornerstone of EU economic integration. We found that although EU legislation was not tailored specifically for the times of a COVID-19 pandemic, in the area of international trade (including intra-EU trade), as well as in the field of placing goods on the market, it provided extraordinary solutions. Apparently, the explanations and guidelines provided by the Commission have limited the scope of individual protectionist and interventionist actions of the Member States.

scholarly journals Has the Accession of Croatia to the EU Affected Business Sentiment in Industry? Synthetic Control Method Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 643-663
Author(s):  
Tihana Škrinjarić ◽  
Mirjana Čižmešija
Keyword(s):  
Control Method ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Main Hypothesis ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Some economic and political events determine the level and dynamics of real economic variables on one hand, and business sentiment as a "soft" variable with a good predictive power for those variables, on the other. In this paper, we observe the impact Croatia's accession to the European Union (EU) in 2013 had on the Industrial confidence indicator (ICI) as a measure of business sentiment in Croatia's industry. Entering the EU had a strong positive impact on the economies of countries that had joined the Union. Unlike other new EU member states, which entered the EU in an upward phase of the European business cycle, Croatia entered this community immediately after the stabilization of the European debt crisis and in a long period of recession. Using a novel application of the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) to the business survey (BS) data, the main hypothesis, that Croatia's accession to the EU had a strong positive impact on the ICI (which can be explained as euphoria), is confirmed. Conclusions derived from this research are a contribution to the improvement and popularization of BS and SCM.

Applying Synthetic Control Method to Estimate the Impact of the Lava Jato Operation on the Worldwide Governance Indicators in Brazil

2021 ◽  
pp. 2631309X2110178
Author(s):  
Eduardo Carvalho Nepomuceno Alencar ◽  
Bryant Jackson-Green
Keyword(s):  
Rule Of Law ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
The Rule Of Law ◽  
Governance Indicators ◽  
Regulatory Quality ◽  
Legal Judgments ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Control Of Corruption

In 2014, the most prominent anti-corruption investigation in Latin America called Lava Jato, exposed a Brazilian corruption scheme with reverberations in 61 countries, resulting in legal judgments for nearly 5 billion USD in reimbursements thus far. This article applies the synthetic control method on data from 135 countries (2002–2018) to test the hypothesis that Lava Jato impacts the Worldwide Governance Indicators in Brazil. The findings reveal that Lava Jato negatively affects control of corruption, the rule of law, and regulatory quality. There are signs of possible improvement in at least the corruption and the rule of law measures. This paper brings value to the criminological body of literature, notably lacking in the Global South.

scholarly journals When is a Match Sufficient? A Score-based Balance Metric for the Synthetic Control Method

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 209-228
Author(s):  
Layla Parast ◽  
Priscillia Hunt ◽  
Beth Ann Griffin ◽  
David Powell
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Control Unit ◽  
Treated Group ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Donor Pool ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn some applications, researchers using the synthetic control method (SCM) to evaluate the effect of a policy may struggle to determine whether they have identified a “good match” between the control group and treated group. In this paper, we demonstrate the utility of the mean and maximum Absolute Standardized Mean Difference (ASMD) as a test of balance between a synthetic control unit and treated unit, and provide guidance on what constitutes a poor fit when using a synthetic control. We explore and compare other potential metrics using a simulation study. We provide an application of our proposed balance metric to the 2013 Los Angeles (LA) Firearm Study [9]. Using Uniform Crime Report data, we apply the SCM to obtain a counterfactual for the LA firearm-related crime rate based on a weighted combination of control units in a donor pool of cities. We use this counterfactual to estimate the effect of the LA Firearm Study intervention and explore the impact of changing the donor pool and pre-intervention duration period on resulting matches and estimated effects. We demonstrate how decision-making about the quality of a synthetic control can be improved by using ASMD. The mean and max ASMD clearly differentiate between poor matches and good matches. Researchers need better guidance on what is a meaningful imbalance between synthetic control and treated groups. In addition to the use of gap plots, the proposed balance metric can provide an objective way of determining fit.

scholarly journals Campaign Finance Regulations and Public Policy

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
MARTIN GILENS ◽  
SHAWN PATTERSON ◽  
PAVIELLE HAINES
Keyword(s):  
Government Policy ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Campaign Finance ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
Citizens United ◽  
Independent Expenditures ◽  
American Elections ◽  
The U.S

Abstract Despite a century of efforts to constrain money in American elections, there is little consensus on whether campaign finance regulations make any appreciable difference. Here we take advantage of a change in the campaign finance regulations of half of the U.S. states mandated by the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision. This exogenously imposed change in the regulation of independent expenditures provides an advance over the identification strategies used in most previous studies. Using a generalized synthetic control method, we find that after Citizens United, states that had previously banned independent corporate expenditures (and thus were “treated” by the decision) adopted more “corporate-friendly” policies on issues with broad effects on corporations’ welfare; we find no evidence of shifts on policies with little or no effect on corporate welfare. We conclude that even relatively narrow changes in campaign finance regulations can have a substantively meaningful influence on government policy making.

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