scholarly journals BCC-ESM1 Model Datasets for the CMIP6 Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP)

2021 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 317-328
Author(s):  
Jie Zhang ◽  
Tongwen Wu ◽  
Fang Zhang ◽  
Kalli Furtado ◽  
Xiaoge Xin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Aerosol Chemistry ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
The 1960S

AbstractBCC-ESM1 is the first version of the Beijing Climate Center’s Earth System Model, and is participating in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) is the only CMIP6-endorsed MIP in which BCC-ESM1 is involved. All AerChemMIP experiments in priority 1 and seven experiments in priorities 2 and 3 have been conducted. The DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) and CMIP historical simulations have also been run as the entry card of CMIP6. The AerChemMIP outputs from BCC-ESM1 have been widely used in recent atmospheric chemistry studies. To facilitate the use of the BCC-ESM1 datasets, this study describes the experiment settings and summarizes the model outputs in detail. Preliminary evaluations of BCC-ESM1 are also presented, revealing that: the climate sensitivities of BCC-ESM1 are well within the likely ranges suggested by IPCC AR5; the spatial structures of annual mean surface air temperature and precipitation can be reasonably captured, despite some common precipitation biases as in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models; a spurious cooling bias from the 1960s to 1990s is evident in BCC-ESM1, as in most other ESMs; and the mean states of surface sulfate concentrations can also be reasonably reproduced, as well as their temporal evolution at regional scales. These datasets have been archived on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) node for atmospheric chemistry studies.

scholarly journals Diagnosis of Multiyear Predictability on Continental Scales

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (19) ◽  
pp. 5108-5124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liwei Jia ◽  
Timothy DelSole
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Optimization Method ◽  
First Year ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Regional Prediction ◽  
Intercomparison Project

A new statistical optimization method is used to identify components of surface air temperature and precipitation on six continents that are predictable in multiple climate models on multiyear time scales. The components are identified from unforced “control runs” of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 dataset. The leading predictable components can be calculated in independent control runs with statistically significant skill for 3–6 yr for surface air temperature and 1–3 yr for precipitation, depending on the continent, using a linear regression model with global sea surface temperature (SST) as a predictor. Typically, lag-correlation maps reveal that the leading predictable components of surface air temperature are related to two types of SST patterns: persistent patterns near the continent itself and an oscillatory ENSO-like pattern. The only exception is Europe, which has no significant ENSO relation. The leading predictable components of precipitation are significantly correlated with an ENSO-like SST pattern. No multiyear predictability of land precipitation could be verified in Europe. The squared multiple correlations of surface air temperature and precipitation for nonzero lags on each continent are less than 0.4 in the first year, implying that less than 40% of variations of the leading predictable component can be predicted from global SST. The predictable components describe the spatial structures that can be predicted on multiyear time scales in the absence of anthropogenic and natural forcing, and thus provide a scientific rationale for regional prediction on multiyear time scales.

Workflow and tools to analyse the PMIP4-CMIP6 ensemble

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anni Zhao ◽  
Chris Brierley
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Important Case ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Past Climate ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Intercomparison Project

<p>Experiment outputs are now available from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project’s 6<sup>th</sup> phase (CMIP6) and the past climate experiments defined in the Model Intercomparison Project’s 4<sup>th</sup> phase (PMIP4). All of this output is freely available from the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF). Yet there are overheads in analysing this resource that may prove complicated or prohibitive. Here we document the steps taken by ourselves to produce ensemble analyses covering past and future simulations. We outline the strategy used to curate, adjust the monthly calendar aggregation and process the information downloaded from the ESGF. The results of these steps were used to perform analysis for several of the initial publications arising from PMIP4. We provide post-processed fields for each simulation, such as climatologies and common measures of variability. Example scripts used to visualise and analyse these fields is provided for several important case studies.</p>

scholarly journals AerChemMIP: quantifying the effects of chemistry and aerosols in CMIP6

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 585-607 ◽  
Author(s):  
William J. Collins ◽  
Jean-François Lamarque ◽  
Michael Schulz ◽  
Olivier Boucher ◽  
Veronika Eyring ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. The Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) is endorsed by the Coupled-Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) and is designed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases. These are specifically near-term climate forcers (NTCFs: methane, tropospheric ozone and aerosols, and their precursors), nitrous oxide and ozone-depleting halocarbons. The aim of AerChemMIP is to answer four scientific questions. 1. How have anthropogenic emissions contributed to global radiative forcing and affected regional climate over the historical period? 2. How might future policies (on climate, air quality and land use) affect the abundances of NTCFs and their climate impacts? 3.How do uncertainties in historical NTCF emissions affect radiative forcing estimates? 4. How important are climate feedbacks to natural NTCF emissions, atmospheric composition, and radiative effects? These questions will be addressed through targeted simulations with CMIP6 climate models that include an interactive representation of tropospheric aerosols and atmospheric chemistry. These simulations build on the CMIP6 Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK) experiments, the CMIP6 historical simulations, and future projections performed elsewhere in CMIP6, allowing the contributions from aerosols and/or chemistry to be quantified. Specific diagnostics are requested as part of the CMIP6 data request to highlight the chemical composition of the atmosphere, to evaluate the performance of the models, and to understand differences in behaviour between them.

scholarly journals Modelling mid-Pliocene climate with COSMOS

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 917-966 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Stepanek ◽  
G. Lohmann
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Pi Control ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Experimental Procedure ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Model Setup ◽  
Fully Coupled ◽  
Earth System Models

Abstract. In this manuscript we describe the experimental procedure employed at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany in the preparation of the simulations for the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). We present a description of the utilized community earth system models (COSMOS) and document the procedures which we applied to transfer the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping Project (PRISM) mid-Pliocene reconstruction into model forcing fields. The model setup and spin-up procedure are described for both the paleo and preindustrial (PI) time-slices of PlioMIP experiments 1 and 2, and general results that depict the performance of our model setup for mid-Pliocene conditions are presented. The mid-Pliocene as simulated with our COSMOS-setup and PRISM boundary conditions is both warmer and wetter than the PI. The globally averaged annual mean surface air temperature in the mid-Pliocene standalone atmosphere (fully coupled atmosphere-ocean) simulation is 17.35 °C (17.82 °C), which implies a warming of 2.23 °C (3.40 °C) relative to the respective PI control simulation.

scholarly journals Reduced complexity model intercomparison project phase 1: Protocol, results and initial observations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zebedee R. J. Nicholls ◽  
Malte Meinshausen ◽  
Jared Lewis ◽  
Robert Gieseke ◽  
Dietmar Dommenget ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Phase 1 ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Reduced Complexity

Abstract. Here we present results from the first phase of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP). RCMIP is a systematic examination of reduced complexity climate models (RCMs), which are used to complement and extend the insights from more complex Earth System Models (ESMs), in particular those participating in the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In Phase 1 of RCMIP, with 14 participating models namely ACC2, AR5IR (2 and 3 box versions), CICERO-SCM, ESCIMO, FaIR, GIR, GREB, Hector, Held et al. two layer model, MAGICC, MCE, OSCAR and WASP, we highlight the structural differences across various RCMs and show that RCMs are capable of reproducing global-mean surface air temperature (GSAT) changes of ESMs and historical observations. We find that some RCMs are capable of emulating the GSAT response of CMIP6 models to within a root-mean square error of 0.2 °C (of the same order of magnitude as ESM internal variability) over a range of scenarios. Running the same model configurations for both RCP and SSP scenarios, we see that the SSPs exhibit higher effective radiative forcing throughout the second half of the 21st Century. Comparing our results to the difference between CMIP5 and CMIP6 output, we find that the change in scenario explains approximately 46 % of the increase in higher end projected warming between CMIP5 and CMIP6. This suggests that changes in ESMs from CMIP5 to CMIP6 explain the rest of the increase, hence the higher climate sensitivities of available CMIP6 models may not be having as large an impact on GSAT projections as first anticipated. A second phase of RCMIP will complement RCMIP Phase 1 by exploring probabilistic results and emulation in more depth to provide results available for the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report author teams.

scholarly journals EC-Earth3-AerChem, a global climate model with interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry participating in CMIP6

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Twan van Noije ◽  
Tommi Bergman ◽  
Philippe Le Sager ◽  
Declan O'Donnell ◽  
Risto Makkonen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
20Th Century ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. This paper documents the global climate model EC-Earth3-AerChem, one of the members of the EC-Earth3 family of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). EC-Earth3-AerChem has interactive aerosols and atmospheric chemistry and contributes to the Aerosols and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). In this paper, we give an overview of the model and describe in detail how it differs from the other EC-Earth3 configurations, and what the new features are compared to the previously documented version of the model (EC-Earth 2.4). We explain how the model was tuned and spun up under pre-industrial conditions and characterize the model's general performance on the basis of a selection of coupled simulations conducted for CMIP6. The mean energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere in the pre-industrial control simulation is −0.10 ± 0.25 W m−2 and shows no significant drift. The corresponding mean global surface air temperature is 14.05 ± 0.16 °C, with a small drift of −0.075 ± 0.009 °C per century. The model's effective equilibrium climate sensitivity is estimated at 3.9 °C and its transient climate response at 2.1 °C. The CMIP6 historical simulation displays spurious interdecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere temperatures, resulting in a large spread among ensemble members and a tendency to underestimate observed annual surface temperature anomalies from the early 20th century onwards. The observed warming of the Southern Hemisphere is well reproduced by the model. Compared to the ERA5 reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the ensemble mean surface air temperature climatology for 1995–2014 has an average bias of −0.86 ± 0.35 °C in the Northern Hemisphere and 1.29 ± 0.05 °C in the Southern Hemisphere. The Southern Hemisphere warm bias is largely caused by errors in shortwave cloud radiative effects over the Southern Ocean, a deficiency of many climate models. Changes in the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) have significant climate effects from the 20th century onwards. For the SSP3-7.0 shared socio-economic pathway, the model gives a global warming at the end of the 21st century (2091–2100) of 4.9 °C above the pre-industrial mean. A 0.5 °C stronger warming is obtained for the AerChemMIP scenario with reduced emissions of NTCFs. With concurrent reductions of future methane concentrations, the warming is projected to be reduced by 0.5 °C.

scholarly journals Description of the MIROC-ES2L Earth system model and evaluation of its climate–biogeochemical processes and feedbacks

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomohiro Hajima ◽  
Michio Watanabe ◽  
Akitomo Yamamoto ◽  
Hiroaki Tatebe ◽  
Maki A. Noguchi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Nitrogen Cycle ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Transient Climate Response ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. This study developed a new Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, Earth System version2 for Long-term simulations (MIROC-ES2L) Earth system model (ESM) using a state-of-the-art climate model as the physical core. This model embeds a terrestrial biogeochemical component with explicit carbon–nitrogen interaction to account for soil nutrient control on plant growth and the land carbon sink. The model’s ocean biogeochemical component is largely updated to simulate biogeochemical cycles of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, iron, and oxygen such that oceanic primary productivity can be controlled by multiple nutrient limitations. The ocean nitrogen cycle is coupled with the land component via river discharge processes, and external inputs of iron from pyrogenic and lithogenic sources are considered. Comparison of a historical simulation with observation studies showed the model could reproduce reasonable historical changes in climate, the carbon cycle, and other biogeochemical variables together with reasonable spatial patterns of distribution of the present-day condition. The model demonstrated historical human perturbation of the nitrogen cycle through land use and agriculture, and it simulated the resultant impact on the terrestrial carbon cycle. Sensitivity analyses in preindustrial conditions revealed modeled ocean biogeochemistry could be changed regionally (but substantially) by nutrient inputs from the atmosphere and rivers. Through an idealized experiment of a 1 %CO2 increase scenario, we found the transient climate response (TCR) in the model is 1.5 K, i.e., approximately 70 % that of our previous model. The cumulative airborne fraction (AF) is also reduced by 15 % because of the intensified land carbon sink, resulting in an AF close to the multimodel mean of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ESMs. The transient climate response to cumulative carbon emission (TCRE) is 1.3 K EgC−1, i.e., slightly smaller than the average of the CMIP5 ESMs, suggesting optimistic model performance in future climate projections. This model and the simulation results are contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The ESM could help further understanding of climate–biogeochemical interaction mechanisms, projections of future environmental changes, and exploration of our future options regarding sustainable development by evolving the processes of climate, biogeochemistry, and human activities in a holistic and interactive manner.

Showcasing the compact Earth system model OSCAR v3.1 with CMIP6 simulations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yann Quilcaille ◽  
Thomas Gasser
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Feedback ◽  
Large Set ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Ocean Carbon Cycle ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Reduced Complexity ◽  
Ocean Carbon

<p>While Earth system models (ESM) provide spatially detailed process-based outputs, they present heavy computational costs. Reduced complexity models such as OSCAR are calibrated on those complex models and provide an alternative with faster calculations but lower resolutions. Yet, reduced-complexity models need to be evaluated and validated. We diagnose the newest version of OSCAR (v3.1) using observations and results from ESMs and the current Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6. A total of 99 experiments are selected for simulation with OSCAR v3.1 in a probabilistic framework, reaching a total of 567,700,000 simulated years. Here, we showcase these results. A first highlight of this exercise is the unstability of the model for high-warming scenarios, which we attribute to the ocean carbon cycle module. The diverging runs caused by this unstability were discarded in the post-processing. The ensuing main results were further obtained by weighting each physical parametrizations based on their performance to replicate a set of observations. Overall, OSCAR v3.1 qualitively behaves like complex ESMs, for all aspects of the Earth system, although we observe a number of quantitative differences with state-of-the-art models. Some specific features of OSCAR contribute in these differences, such as its fully interactive atmospheric chemistry and endogenous calculations of biomass burning, wetlands and permafrost emissions. Nevertheless, the low sensitivity of the land carbon cycle to climate change, the unstability of the ocean carbon cycle, the seemingly over-constrained climate module, and the strong climate feedback over short-lived species, all call for an improvement of these aspects in OSCAR. Beyond providing a key diagnosis of the model in the context of the reduced-complexity models intercomparison project (RCMIP), this work is also meant to help with the upcoming calibration of OSCAR on CMIP6 results, and to provide a large set of CMIP6 simulations all run consistently with a probalistic model.</p>

scholarly journals Sensitivity of Crop Water Need to 2071–95 Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes in Jamaica

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (12) ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott Curtis ◽  
Douglas W. Gamble ◽  
Jeff Popke
Keyword(s):  
Temperature Change ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Precipitation Change ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Crop Water ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Crop Suitability ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Precipitation Changes

Abstract This study uses empirical models to examine the potential impact of climate change, based on a range of 100-yr phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) projections, on crop water need in Jamaica. As expected, crop water need increases with rising temperature and decreasing precipitation, especially in May–July. Comparing the temperature and precipitation impacts on crop water need indicates that the 25th percentile of CMIP5 temperature change (moderate warming) yields a larger crop water deficit than the 75th percentile of CMIP5 precipitation change (wet winter and dry summer), but the 25th percentile of CMIP5 precipitation change (substantial drying) dominates the 75th percentile of CMIP5 temperature change (extreme warming). Over the annual cycle, the warming contributes to larger crop water deficits from November to April, while the drying has a greater influence from May to October. All experiments decrease crop suitability, with the largest impact from March to August.

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