scholarly journals Seasonal forecasts of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble

2017 ◽  
Vol 53 (12) ◽  
pp. 7169-7184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia V. Manganello ◽  
Benjamin A. Cash ◽  
Kevin I. Hodges ◽  
James L. Kinter
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North American ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
The North ◽  
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

Multi-model ensemble forecasting of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity

2016 ◽  
Vol 53 (12) ◽  
pp. 7461-7477 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriele Villarini ◽  
Beda Luitel ◽  
Gabriel A. Vecchi ◽  
Joyee Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Ensemble Forecasting ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

scholarly journals Dynamical Simulations of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity Using Observed Low-Frequency SST Oscillation Imposed on CMIP5 Model RCP4.5 SST Projections

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (21) ◽  
pp. 8055-8069 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy E. LaRow ◽  
Lydia Stefanova ◽  
Chana Seitz
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
The United States ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
First Century ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

Abstract The effects on early and late twenty-first-century North Atlantic tropical cyclone statistics resulting from imposing the patterns of maximum/minimum phases of the observed Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) onto projected sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from two climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are examined using a 100-km resolution global atmospheric model. By imposing the observed maximum positive and negative phases of the AMO onto two CMIP5 SST projections from the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario, this study places bounds on future North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity during the early (2020–39) and late (2080–99) twenty-first century. Averaging over both time periods and both AMO phases, the mean named tropical cyclones (NTCs) count increases by 35% when compared to simulations using observed SSTs from 1982 to 2009. The positive AMO simulations produce approximately a 68% increase in mean NTC count, while the negative AMO simulations are statistically indistinguishable from the mean NTC count determined from the 1995–2009 simulations—a period of observed positive AMO phase. Examination of the tropical cyclone track densities shows a statistically significant increase in the tracks along the East Coast of the United States in the future simulations compared to the models’ 1982–2009 climate simulations. The increase occurs regardless of AMO phase, although the negative phase produces higher track densities. The maximum wind speeds increase by 6%, in agreement with other climate change studies. Finally, the NTC-related precipitation is found to increase (approximately by 13%) compared to the 1982–2009 simulations.

scholarly journals Revisiting the Influence of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation on Tropical Cyclone Activity

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (21) ◽  
pp. 5810-5825 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suzana J. Camargo ◽  
Adam H. Sobel
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Solar Forcing ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
The North ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Abstract The statistical relationship between the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and tropical cyclone (TC) activity is explored, with a focus on the North Atlantic. Although there is a statistically significant relationship between the QBO and TCs in the Atlantic from the 1950s to the 1980s, as found by previous studies, that relationship is no longer present in later years. Several possibilities for this change are explored, including the interaction with ENSO, volcanoes, QBO decadal variability, and interactions with solar forcing. None provides a completely satisfying explanation. In the other basins, the relationship is weaker than in the Atlantic, even in the early record.

scholarly journals Multidecadal Variability in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (15) ◽  
pp. 3929-3935 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip J. Klotzbach ◽  
William M. Gray
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Atlantic Basin ◽  
Multidecadal Variability ◽  
The North ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies ◽  
Using Data

Abstract Recent increases in Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity since 1995 and the associated destructive U.S. landfall events in 2004 and 2005 have generated considerable interest into why there has been such a sharp upturn. Natural variability, human-induced global warming, or a combination of both factors, have been suggested. Several previous studies have discussed observed multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic over 25–40-yr time scales. This study, using data from 1878 to the present, creates a metric based on far North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies and basinwide North Atlantic sea level pressure anomalies that shows remarkable agreement with observed multidecadal variability in both Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity and in U.S. landfall frequency.

scholarly journals Simulation of the Global ENSO–Tropical Cyclone Teleconnection by a High-Resolution Coupled General Circulation Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (17) ◽  
pp. 6404-6422 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Bell ◽  
Kevin Hodges ◽  
Pier Luigi Vidale ◽  
Jane Strachan ◽  
Malcolm Roberts
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
The North ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract This study assesses the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on global tropical cyclone activity using a 150-yr-long integration with a high-resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model [High-Resolution Global Environmental Model (HiGEM); with N144 resolution: ~90 km in the atmosphere and ~40 km in the ocean]. Tropical cyclone activity is compared to an atmosphere-only simulation using the atmospheric component of HiGEM (HiGAM). Observations of tropical cyclones in the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) and tropical cyclones identified in the Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) are used to validate the models. Composite anomalies of tropical cyclone activity in El Niño and La Niña years are used. HiGEM is able to capture the shift in tropical cyclone locations to ENSO in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. However, HiGEM does not capture the expected ENSO–tropical cyclone teleconnection in the North Atlantic. HiGAM shows more skill in simulating the global ENSO–tropical cyclone teleconnection; however, variability in the Pacific is overpronounced. HiGAM is able to capture the ENSO–tropical cyclone teleconnection in the North Atlantic more accurately than HiGEM. An investigation into the large-scale environmental conditions, known to influence tropical cyclone activity, is used to further understand the response of tropical cyclone activity to ENSO in the North Atlantic and western North Pacific. The vertical wind shear response over the Caribbean is not captured in HiGEM compared to HiGAM and ERA-Interim. Biases in the mean ascent at 500 hPa in HiGEM remain in HiGAM over the western North Pacific; however, a more realistic low-level vorticity in HiGAM results in a more accurate ENSO–tropical cyclone teleconnection.

scholarly journals Atlantic tropical cyclones downscaled from climate reanalyses show increasing activity over past 150 years

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kerry Emanuel
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Model Driven ◽  
Early Portion ◽  
Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

AbstractHistorical records of Atlantic hurricane activity, extending back to 1851, show increasing activity over time, but much or all of this trend has been attributed to lack of observations in the early portion of the record. Here we use a tropical cyclone downscaling model driven by three global climate analyses that are based mostly on sea surface temperature and surface pressure data. The results support earlier statistically-based inferences that storms were undercounted in the 19th century, but in contrast to earlier work, show increasing tropical cyclone activity through the period, interrupted by a prominent hurricane drought in the 1970s and 80 s that we attribute to anthropogenic aerosols. In agreement with earlier work, we show that most of the variability of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity over the last century was directly related to regional rather than global climate change. Most metrics of tropical cyclones downscaled over all the tropics show weak and/or insignificant trends over the last century, illustrating the special nature of North Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document