scholarly journals The leading modes of NH extratropical tropopause variability and their connection with stratosphere-troposphere variability

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinju Kim ◽  
Kwang-Yul Kim
Keyword(s):  
Phase Fluctuation ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Early Spring ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Function Technique ◽  
Two Phase ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
Tropospheric Circulation ◽  
Extratropical Tropopause

AbstractThe leading modes of Northern Hemisphere tropopause variability for November–April (1979/1980–2018/2019) and the associated stratosphere-troposphere variability were analyzed based on the NCEP and ERA interim reanalysis products. For this, cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function technique is employed. The first two modes feature the intraseasonal evolution of tropopause pressure anomalies over the Arctic, which respond directly to stratospheric temperature fluctuations in association with stratospheric polar vortex variations. These two modes reflect the link between stratospheric polar vortex strength and high-latitude tropospheric circulation. The first mode represents a single-phase fluctuation of the stratospheric polar vortex from winter to early spring. The second mode describes a two-phase fluctuation of the stratospheric vortex with opposite signs in winter and in spring. Tropopause pressure anomalies near the mid-latitude tropospheric jet regions exhibit significant zonal variation. In the first mode, in particular, these mid-latitude tropopause anomalies are linked to asymmetric jet variations in the Atlantic and the Pacific regions. In regard to the Northern Annular mode, distinct vertical evolution structures of the two modes are practically related to the varying evolutionary structure of extreme vortex events with relatively long persistence.

scholarly journals Quantifying Asymmetric Wave Breaking and Two-Way Transport

2004 ◽  
Vol 61 (22) ◽  
pp. 2735-2748 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noboru Nakamura
Keyword(s):  
Wave Breaking ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Effective Diffusivity ◽  
The Other ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Air Masses ◽  
Rossby Wave Breaking ◽  
Advection Diffusion Equation ◽  
Extratropical Tropopause ◽  
Asymmetric Wave

Abstract Effective diffusivity calculated from a scalar field that obeys the advection–diffusion equation has proved useful for estimating the permeability of unsteady boundaries of air masses such as the edge of the stratospheric polar vortex and the extratropical tropopause. However, the method does not discriminate the direction of transport—whereas some material crosses the boundary from one side to the other, some material does so in the other direction—yet the extant method concerns only the net transport. In this paper, the diagnostic is extended to allow partitioning of fluxes of mass and tracer into opposing directions. This is accomplished by discriminating the regions of “inward” and “outward” wave breaking with the local curvature of the tracer field. The utility of the new method is demonstrated for nonlinear Kelvin– Helmholtz instability and Rossby wave breaking in the stratosphere using a numerically generated tracer. The method successfully quantifies two-way transport and hence the direction of wave breaking—the predominantly equatorward breaking of Rossby waves in the extratropical middle stratosphere, for example. Isolated episodes of mixing are identified well, particularly by the mass flux that primarily arises from the tracer filaments. Comparison of different transport schemes suggests that the results are reasonably robust under a varying subgrid representation of the model.

scholarly journals Analysis of Arctic Spring Ozone Anomaly in the Phases of QBO and 11-year Solar Cycle for 1979–2011

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yousuke Yamashita ◽  
Hideharu Akiyoshi ◽  
Masaaki Takahashi
Keyword(s):  
Solar Cycle ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Early Spring ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Negative Anomaly ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

Arctic ozone amount in winter to spring shows large year-to-year variation. This study investigates Arctic spring ozone in relation to the phase of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)/the 11-year solar cycle, using satellite observations, reanalysis data, and outputs of a chemistry climate model (CCM) during the period of 1979–2011. For this duration, we found that the composite mean of the Northern Hemisphere high-latitude total ozone in the QBO-westerly (QBO-W)/solar minimum (Smin) phase is slightly smaller than those averaged for the QBO-W/Smax and QBO-E/Smax years in March. An analysis of a passive ozone tracer in the CCM simulation indicates that this negative anomaly is primarily caused by transport. The negative anomaly is consistent with a weakening of the residual mean downward motion in the polar lower stratosphere. The contribution of chemical processes estimated using the column amount difference between ozone and the passive ozone tracer is between 10–20% of the total anomaly in March. The lower ozone levels in the Arctic spring during the QBO-W/Smin years are associated with a stronger Arctic polar vortex from late winter to early spring, which is linked to the reduced occurrence of sudden stratospheric warming in the winter during the QBO-W/Smin years.

Lagrangian analysis of the northern polar vortex split in April 2020 during development of the Arctic ozone hole

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jezabel Curbelo ◽  
Gang Chen ◽  
Carlos R. Mechoso
Keyword(s):  
Wave Train ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Early Spring ◽  
Ozone Hole ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Lagrangian Analysis ◽  
The North ◽  
Vortex Split

<div>The evolution of the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere during late winter and early spring of 2020 was punctuated by outstanding events both in dynamics and tracer evolution. It provides an ideal case for study of the Lagrangian properties of the evolving flow and its connections with the troposphere. The events ranged from an episode of polar warming at upper levels in March, a polar vortex split into two cyclonic vortices at middle and lower levels in April, and a remarkably deep and persistent mass of ozone poor air within the westerly circulation throughout the period. The latter feature was particularly remarkable during 2020, which showed the lowest values of stratospheric ozone on record.</div><div> </div><div>We focus on the vortex split in April 2020 and we examine this split at middle as well as lower stratospheric levels, and the interactions that occurred between the resulting two vortices which determined the distribution of ozone among them. We also examine the connections among stratospheric and tropospheric events during the period.</div><div> </div><div>Our approach for analysis will be based on the application of Lagrangian tools to the flow field, based on following air parcels trajectories, examining barriers to the flow, and the activity and propagation of planetary waves. Our findings confirm the key role for the split played by a flow configuration with a polar hyperbolic trajectory and associated manifolds. A trajectory analysis illustrates the transport of ozone between the vortices during the split. We argue that these stratospheric events were linked to strong synoptic scale disturbances in the troposphere forming a wave train from the north Pacific to North America and Eurasia.</div><div><strong> </strong></div><div><strong>Reference:</strong><strong> </strong>J. Curbelo, G. Chen,  C. R. Mechoso. Multi-level analysis of the northern polar vortex split in April 2020 during development of the Arctic ozone hole. Earth and Space Science Open Archive. doi: 10.1002/essoar.10505516.1</div><div> </div><div><strong>Acknowledgements:</strong> NSF Grant AGS-1832842, RYC2018-025169 and EIN2019-103087.</div>

scholarly journals Statistical Characterization of Arctic Polar-Night Jet Oscillation Events

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (6) ◽  
pp. 2096-2116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Hitchcock ◽  
Theodore G. Shepherd ◽  
Gloria L. Manney
Keyword(s):  
Time Scale ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Polar Night ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Statistical Characterization ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Jet Oscillation

Abstract A novel diagnostic tool is presented, based on polar-cap temperature anomalies, for visualizing daily variability of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex over multiple decades. This visualization illustrates the ubiquity of extended-time-scale recoveries from stratospheric sudden warmings, termed here polar-night jet oscillation (PJO) events. These are characterized by an anomalously warm polar lower stratosphere that persists for several months. Following the initial warming, a cold anomaly forms in the middle stratosphere, as does an anomalously high stratopause, both of which descend while the lower-stratospheric anomaly persists. These events are characterized in four datasets: Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) temperature observations; the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalyses; and an ensemble of three 150-yr simulations from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model. The statistics of PJO events in the model are found to agree very closely with those of the observations and reanalyses. The time scale for the recovery of the polar vortex following sudden warmings correlates strongly with the depth to which the warming initially descends. PJO events occur following roughly half of all major sudden warmings and are associated with an extended period of suppressed wave-activity fluxes entering the polar vortex. They follow vortex splits more frequently than they do vortex displacements. They are also related to weak vortex events as identified by the northern annular mode; in particular, those weak vortex events followed by a PJO event show a stronger tropospheric response. The long time scales, predominantly radiative dynamics, and tropospheric influence of PJO events suggest that they represent an important source of conditional skill in seasonal forecasting.

Stratospheric influence on idealised baroclinic life cycles

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Rupp ◽  
Thomas Birner
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Life Cycles ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Shift Response ◽  
Tropospheric Circulation ◽  
Wave Development ◽  
Final Steady State ◽  
Numerical Model Experiments

<p>The importance of understanding the dynamical coupling of troposphere and stratosphere to make accurate weather and climate predictions is well-known. Over the past years and decades various signatures of such a<br>coupling have been discovered. A very robust result, for example, seems to be an equatorward shift of the tropospheric eddy driven jet following sudden stratospheric warming events, where the westerly winds of the stratospheric polar vortex weaken or even reverse. However, many aspects of this fundamental coupling are still not fully understood and research on how the state of the stratosphere can influence the tropospheric circulation and what dynamical processes are involved is still ongoing.</p><p><br>An important such process arises due to the interaction of a sharp, localised maximum in potential vorticity gradient near the tropopause with baroclinic eddies in the troposphere. Here, we analyse the sensitivity of baroclinic wave development and evolution to changes of various basic state characteristics, by performing a series of idealised baroclinic eddy life cycle experiments. Special attention is paid to sensitivities associated with the dynamical state of the stratosphere. We find that the final (steady) state of the life cycle simulations corresponds to an equatorward shift of the tropospheric jet in cases where the initial conditions do not include a stratospheric polar vortex (such as following sudden warming events) compared to those that do. These results further support the idea that the stratospheric state can strongly influence tropospheric dynamics and, in particular, highlight the robustness of the jet shift response following sudden warmings, that can be seen in a range of observations and numerical model experiments.</p>

scholarly journals Seasonal Prediction Skill of Northern Extratropical Surface Temperature Driven by the Stratosphere

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (12) ◽  
pp. 4463-4475 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liwei Jia ◽  
Xiaosong Yang ◽  
Gabriel Vecchi ◽  
Richard Gudgel ◽  
Thomas Delworth ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Predictive Skill

This study explores the role of the stratosphere as a source of seasonal predictability of surface climate over Northern Hemisphere extratropics both in the observations and climate model predictions. A suite of numerical experiments, including climate simulations and retrospective forecasts, are set up to isolate the role of the stratosphere in seasonal predictive skill of extratropical near-surface land temperature. It is shown that most of the lead-0-month spring predictive skill of land temperature over extratropics, particularly over northern Eurasia, stems from stratospheric initialization. It is further revealed that this predictive skill of extratropical land temperature arises from skillful prediction of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The dynamical connection between the stratosphere and troposphere is also demonstrated by the significant correlation between the stratospheric polar vortex and sea level pressure anomalies, as well as the migration of the stratospheric zonal wind anomalies to the lower troposphere.

Improvement in Prediction of the Arctic Oscillation with a Realistic Ocean Initial Condition in a CGCM

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (22) ◽  
pp. 8951-8967 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hae-Jeong Kim ◽  
Joong-Bae Ahn
Keyword(s):  
Arctic Oscillation ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Polar Front ◽  
Forecast Skill ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Initial Condition ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
The Arctic Oscillation ◽  
Polar Front Jet

Abstract This study verifies the impact of improved ocean initial conditions on the Arctic Oscillation (AO) forecast skill by assessing the one-month lead predictability of boreal winter AO using the Pusan National University (PNU) coupled general circulation model (CGCM). Hindcast experiments were performed on two versions of the model, one does not use assimilated ocean initial data (V1.0) and one does (V1.1), and the results were comparatively analyzed. The forecast skill of V1.1 was superior to that of V1.0 in terms of the correlation coefficient between the predicted and observed AO indices. In the regression analysis, V1.1 showed more realistic spatial similarities than V1.0 did in predicted sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation fields. The authors suggest the relative importance of the contribution of the ocean initial condition to the AO forecast skill was because the ocean data assimilation increased the predictability of the AO, to some extent, through the improved interaction between tropical forcing induced by realistic sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation. In V1.1, as in the observation, the cold equatorial Pacific SST anomalies generated the weakened tropical convection and Hadley circulation over the Pacific, resulting in a decelerated subtropical jet and accelerated polar front jet in the extratropics. The intensified polar front jet implies a stronger stratospheric polar vortex relevant to the positive AO phase; hence, surface manifestations of the reflected positive AO phase were then induced through the downward propagation of the stratospheric polar vortex. The results suggest that properly assimilated initial ocean conditions might contribute to improve the predictability of global oscillations, such as the AO, through large-scale tropical ocean–atmosphere interaction.

Sensitivity of the Tropospheric Circulation to Changes in the Strength of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex

2006 ◽  
Vol 134 (8) ◽  
pp. 2191-2207 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Jung ◽  
Jan Barkmeijer
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
The North ◽  
European Area ◽  
Extended Range ◽  
Tropospheric Circulation ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Ecmwf Model ◽  
Strong Vortex

Abstract The sensitivity of the wintertime tropospheric circulation to changes in the strength of the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex is studied using one of the latest versions of the ECMWF model. Three sets of experiments were carried out: one control integration and two integrations in which the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex has been gradually reduced and increased, respectively, during the course of the integration. The strength of the polar vortex is changed by applying a forcing to the model tendencies in the stratosphere only. The forcing has been obtained using the adjoint technique. It is shown that, in the ECMWF model, changes in the strength of the polar vortex in the middle and lower stratosphere have a significant and slightly delayed (on the order of days) impact on the tropospheric circulation. The tropospheric response shows some resemblance to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), though the centers of action are slightly shifted toward the east compared to those of the NAO. Furthermore, a separate comparison of the response to a weak and strong vortex forcing suggests that to first order the tropospheric response is linear within a range of realistic stratospheric perturbations. From the results presented, it is argued that extended-range forecasts in the European area particularly benefit from the stratosphere–troposphere link.

scholarly journals Origins of Multi-decadal Variability in Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oscar Dimdore-Miles ◽  
Lesley Gray ◽  
Scott Osprey
Keyword(s):  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Major Influence ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Stratospheric Polar Vortex ◽  
Surface Climate ◽  
Tropospheric Circulation ◽  
Tropical Sea

<p>Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are major disruptions of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratospheric polar vortex and occur on average approximately 6 times per decade in observation based records. However, within these records, intervals of significantly higher and lower SSW rates are observed suggesting the possibility of low frequency variations in event occurrence. A better understanding of factors that influence this decadal variability may help to improve predictability of NH mid-latitude surface climate, through stratosphere-troposphere coupling. In this work, multi-decadal variability of SSW events is examined in a 1000-yr pre-industrial simulation of a coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Land-Sea ice model. Using a wavelet spectral decomposition method, we show that hiatus events (intervals of a decade or more with no SSWs) and consecutive SSW events (extended intervals with at least one SSW in each year) vary on multi-decadal timescales of period between 60 and 90 years. Signals on these timescales are present for approximately 450 years of the simulation. We investigate the possible source of these long-term signals and find that the direct impact of variability in tropical sea surface temperatures, as well as the associated Aleutian Low, can account for only a small portion of the SSW variability. Instead, the major influence on long-term SSW variability is associated with long-term variability in amplitude of the stratospheric quasi biennial oscillation (QBO). The QBO influence is consistent with the well known Holton-Tan relationship, with SSW hiatus intervals associated with extended periods of particularly strong, deep QBO westerly phases. The results support recent studies that have highlighted the role of vertical coherence in the QBO when considering coupling between the QBO, the polar vortex and tropospheric circulation.</p>

scholarly journals Comparison of Inorganic Chlorine in the Southern Hemispheric lowermost stratosphere during Late Winter 2019

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Markus Jesswein ◽  
Heiko Bozem ◽  
Hans-Christoph Lachnitt ◽  
Peter Hoor ◽  
Thomas Wagenhäuser ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Degradation Products ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Boundary Region ◽  
Early Spring ◽  
Active Chlorine ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Annual Variations ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Inorganic chlorine (Cly) is the sum of the degradation products of long-lived chlorinated source gases. These include the reservoir species (HCl and ClONO2) and active chlorine species (i.e. ClOx). The active chlorine species drive catalytic cycles that deplete ozone in the polar winter stratosphere. This work presents calculations of inorganic chlorine (Cly) derived from chlorinated source gas measurements on board the High Altitude and Long Range Research Aircraft (HALO) during the Southern hemisphere Transport, Dynamic and Chemistry (SouthTRAC) campaign in late winter and early spring 2019. Results are compared to Cly of the Northern Hemisphere derived from measurements of the POLSTRACC-GW-LCYCLE-SALSA (PGS) campaign in the Arctic winter of 2015/2016. A scaled correlation was used for PGS data, since not all source gases were measured. Cly from a scaled correlation was compared to directly determined Cly and agreed well. An air mass classification based on in situ N2O measurements allocates the measurements to the vortex, the vortex boundary region, and mid-latitudes. Although the Antarctic vortex was weakened in 2019 compared to previous years, Cly reached 1687 ± 20 ppt at 385 K, therefore up to around 50 % of total chlorine could be found in inorganic form inside the Antarctic vortex, whereas only 15 % of total chlorine could be found in inorganic form in the southern mid-latitudes. In contrast, only 40 % of total chlorine could be found in inorganic form in the Arctic vortex during PGS and roughly 20 % in the northern mid-latitudes. Differences inside the respective vortex reaches up to 565 ppt more Cly in the Antarctic vortex 2019 than in the Arctic vortex 2016 (at comparable distance to the local tropopause). As far as is known, this is the first comparison of inorganic chlorine within the respective polar vortex. Based on the results of these two campaigns, the difference of Cly inside the respective vortex is significant and larger than reported inter annual variations.

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