Mechanism of ENSO influence on the South Asian monsoon rainfall in global model simulations

2017 ◽  
Vol 131 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 1449-1464 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sneh Joshi ◽  
Sarat C. Kar
Keyword(s):  
South Asian ◽  
Asian Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Global Model ◽  
South Asian Monsoon ◽  
The South ◽  
Model Simulations

scholarly journals Impacts of 20th century aerosol emissions on the South Asian monsoon in the CMIP5 models

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (22) ◽  
pp. 30639-30666 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Guo ◽  
A. G. Turner ◽  
E. J. Highwood
Keyword(s):  
South Asian ◽  
Indirect Effects ◽  
Asian Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Asymmetric Distribution ◽  
South Asian Monsoon ◽  
The South ◽  
Aerosol Effects ◽  
Aerosol Emissions

Abstract. Comparison of single-forcing varieties of 20th century historical experiments in a subset of models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) reveals that South Asian summer monsoon rainfall increases towards the present day in Greenhouse Gas (GHG)-only experiments with respect to pre-industrial levels, while it decreases in anthropogenic aerosol-only experiments. Comparison of these single-forcing experiments with the all-forcings historical experiment suggests aerosol emissions have dominated South Asian monsoon rainfall trends in recent decades, especially during the 1950s to 1970s. The variations in South Asian monsoon rainfall in these experiments follows approximately the time-evolution of inter-hemispheric temperature gradient over the same period, suggesting a contribution from the large-scale background state relating to the asymmetric distribution of aerosol emissions about the equator. By examining the twenty-five available all-forcings historical experiments, we show that models including aerosol indirect effects dominate the negative rainfall trend. Indeed, models including only the direct radiative effect of aerosol show an increase in monsoon rainfall, consistent with the dominance of increasing greenhouse gas emissions and planetary warming on monsoon rainfall in those models. For South Asia, reduced rainfall in the models with indirect effects is related to decreased evaporation at the land surface rather than from anomalies in horizontal moisture flux, suggesting the impact of indirect effects on local aerosol emissions. This is confirmed by examination of aerosol loading and cloud droplet number trends over the South Asia region. Thus while remote aerosols and their asymmetric distribution about the equator play a role in setting the inter-hemispheric temperature distribution on which the South Asian monsoon, as one of the global monsoons, operates, the addition of indirect aerosol effects acting on very local aerosol emissions also plays a role in declining monsoon rainfall. The disparity between the response of monsoon rainfall to increasing aerosol emissions in models containing direct aerosol effects only and those also containing indirect effects needs to be urgently investigated since the suggested future decline in Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions inherent to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) used for future climate projection may turn out to be optimistic. In addition, both groups of models show declining rainfall over China, also relating to local aerosol mechanisms. We hypothesize that aerosol emissions over China are large enough, in the CMIP5 models, to cause declining monsoon rainfall even in the absence of indirect aerosol effects. The same is not true for India.

scholarly journals Impacts of 20th century aerosol emissions on the South Asian monsoon in the CMIP5 models

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. 6367-6378 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Guo ◽  
A. G. Turner ◽  
E. J. Highwood
Keyword(s):  
South Asian ◽  
Indirect Effects ◽  
Asian Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Asymmetric Distribution ◽  
South Asian Monsoon ◽  
The South ◽  
Aerosol Effects ◽  
Aerosol Emissions

Abstract. Comparison of single-forcing varieties of 20th century historical experiments in a subset of models from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) reveals that South Asian summer monsoon rainfall increases towards the present day in Greenhouse Gas (GHG)-only experiments with respect to pre-industrial levels, while it decreases in anthropogenic aerosol-only experiments. Comparison of these single-forcing experiments with the all-forcings historical experiment suggests aerosol emissions have dominated South Asian monsoon rainfall trends in recent decades, especially during the 1950s to 1970s. The variations in South Asian monsoon rainfall in these experiments follows approximately the time evolution of inter-hemispheric temperature gradient over the same period, suggesting a contribution from the large-scale background state relating to the asymmetric distribution of aerosol emissions about the equator. By examining the 24 available all-forcings historical experiments, we show that models including aerosol indirect effects dominate the negative rainfall trend. Indeed, models including only the direct radiative effect of aerosol show an increase in monsoon rainfall, consistent with the dominance of increasing greenhouse gas emissions and planetary warming on monsoon rainfall in those models. For South Asia, reduced rainfall in the models with indirect effects is related to decreased evaporation at the land surface rather than from anomalies in horizontal moisture flux, suggesting the impact of indirect effects on local aerosol emissions. This is confirmed by examination of aerosol loading and cloud droplet number trends over the South Asia region. Thus, while remote aerosols and their asymmetric distribution about the equator play a role in setting the inter-hemispheric temperature distribution on which the South Asian monsoon, as one of the global monsoons, operates, the addition of indirect aerosol effects acting on very local aerosol emissions also plays a role in declining monsoon rainfall. The disparity between the response of monsoon rainfall to increasing aerosol emissions in models containing direct aerosol effects only and those also containing indirect effects needs to be urgently investigated since the suggested future decline in Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions inherent to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) used for future climate projection may turn out to be optimistic. In addition, both groups of models show declining rainfall over China, also relating to local aerosol mechanisms. We hypothesize that aerosol emissions over China are large enough, in the CMIP5 models, to cause declining monsoon rainfall even in the absence of indirect aerosol effects. The same is not true for India.

scholarly journals Synoptic Preconditions for Extreme Flooding during the Summer Asian Monsoon in the Mumbai Area

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 229-242 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Lomazzi ◽  
Dara Entekhabi ◽  
Joaquim G. Pinto ◽  
Giorgio Roth ◽  
Roberto Rudari
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Asian Monsoon ◽  
Indian Subcontinent ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Value Added ◽  
South Asian Monsoon ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
The South ◽  
Synoptic Conditions

Abstract The summer monsoon season is an important hydrometeorological feature of the Indian subcontinent and it has significant socioeconomic impacts. This study is aimed at understanding the processes associated with the occurrence of catastrophic flood events. The study has two novel features that add to the existing body of knowledge about the South Asian monsoon: 1) it combines traditional hydrometeorological observations (rain gauge measurements) with unconventional data (media and state historical records of reported flooding) to produce value-added century-long time series of potential flood events and 2) it identifies the larger regional synoptic conditions leading to days with flood potential in the time series. The promise of mining unconventional data to extend hydrometeorological records is demonstrated in this study. The synoptic evolution of flooding events in the western-central coast of India and the densely populated Mumbai area are shown to correspond to active monsoon periods with embedded low pressure centers and have far-upstream influences from the western edge of the Indian Ocean basin. The coastal processes along the Arabian Peninsula where the currents interact with the continental shelf are found to be key features of extremes during the South Asian monsoon.

scholarly journals The remote response of the South Asian Monsoon to reduced dust emissions and Sahara greening during the middle Holocene

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 1243-1271
Author(s):  
Francesco S. R. Pausata ◽  
Gabriele Messori ◽  
Jayoung Yun ◽  
Chetankumar A. Jalihal ◽  
Massimo A. Bollasina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Asian ◽  
Asian Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Dust Emission ◽  
Northern Africa ◽  
South Asian Monsoon ◽  
The South ◽  
Airborne Dust ◽  
Orbital Parameters ◽  
Humid Period

Abstract. Previous studies based on multiple paleoclimate archives suggested a prominent intensification of the South Asian Monsoon (SAM) during the mid-Holocene (MH, ∼6000 years before present). The main forcing that contributed to this intensification is related to changes in the Earth's orbital parameters. Nonetheless, other key factors likely played important roles, including remote changes in vegetation cover and airborne dust emission. In particular, northern Africa also experienced much wetter conditions and a more mesic landscape than today during the MH (the so-called African Humid Period), leading to a large decrease in airborne dust globally. However, most modeling studies investigating the SAM changes during the Holocene overlooked the potential impacts of the vegetation and dust emission changes that took place over northern Africa. Here, we use a set of simulations for the MH climate, in which vegetation over the Sahara and reduced dust concentrations are considered. Our results show that SAM rainfall is strongly affected by Saharan vegetation and dust concentrations, with a large increase in particular over northwestern India and a lengthening of the monsoon season. We propose that this remote influence is mediated by anomalies in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures and may have shaped the evolution of the SAM during the termination of the African Humid Period.

Characteristics of Precipitating Convective Systems in the South Asian Monsoon

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulrike Romatschke ◽  
Robert A. Houze
Keyword(s):  
South Asian ◽  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Arabian Sea ◽  
Asian Monsoon ◽  
South Asian Monsoon ◽  
Western Himalayas ◽  
The South ◽  
Convective Systems ◽  
Large Systems

Abstract Eight years of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) data show how convective systems of different types contribute to precipitation of the South Asian monsoon. The main factor determining the amount of precipitation coming from a specific system is its horizontal size. Convective intensity and/or number of embedded convective cells further enhance its precipitation production. The precipitation of the monsoon is concentrated in three mountainous regions: the Himalayas and coastal ranges of western India and Myanmar. Along the western Himalayas, precipitation falls mainly from small, but highly convective systems. Farther east along the foothills, systems are more stratiform. These small and medium systems form during the day, as the monsoon flow is forced upslope. Nighttime cooling leads to downslope flow and triggers medium-sized systems at lower elevations. At the mountainous western coasts of India and Myanmar, small and medium systems are present throughout the day, as an orographic response to the southwesterly flow, with a slight superimposed diurnal cycle. Medium systems are favored over the eastern parts of the Arabian Sea and large systems are favored over the Bay of Bengal when an enhanced midlevel cyclonic circulation occurs over the northern parts of these regions. The systems forming upstream of coastal mountains over the Bay of Bengal are larger than those over the Arabian Sea, probably because of the moister conditions over the bay. The large systems over the bay exhibit a pronounced diurnal cycle, with systems forming near midnight and maximizing in midday.

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