scholarly journals Flood Risk and Adaptation Strategies for Soybean Production Systems on the Flood-Prone Pampas under Climate Change

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1187
Author(s):  
Wouter Julius Smolenaars ◽  
Spyridon Paparrizos ◽  
Saskia Werners ◽  
Fulco Ludwig
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Soybean Production ◽  
Drying Trend ◽  
Sowing Season

In recent decades, multiple flood events have had a devastating impact on soybean production in Argentina. Recent advances suggest that the frequency and intensity of destructive flood events on the Argentinian Pampas will increase under pressure from climate change. This paper provides bottom-up insight into the flood risk for soybean production systems under climate change and the suitability of adaptation strategies in two of the most flood-prone areas of the Pampas region. The flood risk perceptions of soybean producers were explored through interviews, translated into climatic indicators and then studied using a multi-model climate data analysis. Soybean producers perceived the present flood risk for rural accessibility to be of the highest concern, especially during the harvest and sowing seasons when heavy machinery needs to reach soybean lots. An analysis of climatic change projections found a rising trend in annual and harvest precipitation and a slight drying trend during the sowing season. This indicates that the flood risk for harvest accessibility may increase under climate change. Several adaptation strategies were identified that can systemically address flood risks, but these require collaborative action and cannot be undertaken by individual producers. The results suggest that if cooperative adaptation efforts are not made in the short term, the continued increase in flood risk may force soybean producers in the case study locations to shift away from soybean towards more robust land uses.

scholarly journals Coastal and river flood risk analyses for guiding economically optimal flood adaptation policies: a country-scale study for Mexico

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2121) ◽  
pp. 20170329 ◽  
Author(s):  
Toon Haer ◽  
W. J. Wouter Botzen ◽  
Vincent van Roomen ◽  
Harry Connor ◽  
Jorge Zavala-Hidalgo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Flood Protection ◽  
Local Data ◽  
Flood Adaptation

Many countries around the world face increasing impacts from flooding due to socio-economic development in flood-prone areas, which may be enhanced in intensity and frequency as a result of climate change. With increasing flood risk, it is becoming more important to be able to assess the costs and benefits of adaptation strategies. To guide the design of such strategies, policy makers need tools to prioritize where adaptation is needed and how much adaptation funds are required. In this country-scale study, we show how flood risk analyses can be used in cost–benefit analyses to prioritize investments in flood adaptation strategies in Mexico under future climate scenarios. Moreover, given the often limited availability of detailed local data for such analyses, we show how state-of-the-art global data and flood risk assessment models can be applied for a detailed assessment of optimal flood-protection strategies. Our results show that especially states along the Gulf of Mexico have considerable economic benefits from investments in adaptation that limit risks from both river and coastal floods, and that increased flood-protection standards are economically beneficial for many Mexican states. We discuss the sensitivity of our results to modelling uncertainties, the transferability of our modelling approach and policy implications. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’.

Potential adaptation strategies for rainfed soybean production in the south-eastern USA under climate change based on the CSM-CROPGRO-Soybean model

2015 ◽  
Vol 153 (5) ◽  
pp. 798-824 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. BAO ◽  
G. HOOGENBOOM ◽  
R. W. McCLENDON ◽  
J. O. PAZ
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
The South ◽  
Soybean Production ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
Eastern Usa ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Potential Adaptation

SUMMARYDue to the potential impact of climate change and climate variability on rainfed production systems, both farmers and policy makers will have to rely more on short- and long-term yield projections. The goal of this study was to develop a procedure for calibrating the Cropping System Model (CSM)-CROPGRO-Soybean model for six cultivars, to determine the potential impact of climate change on rainfed soybean for five locations in Georgia, USA, and to provide recommendations for potential adaptation strategies for soybean production in Georgia and other south-eastern states. The Genotype Coefficient Calculator (GENCALC) software package was applied for calibration of the soybean cultivar coefficients using variety trial data. The root mean square error (RMSE) between observed and simulated grain yield ranged from 201 to 413 kg/ha for the six cultivars. Generally, the future climate scenarios showed an increase in temperature which caused a decrease in the number of days to maturity for all varieties and for all locations. This will benefit late-planted soybean production slightly, while the increase in precipitation and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration will result in a yield increase. This was the highest for Calhoun and Williamson and ranged from 31 to 49% for the climate change projections for 2050. However, a large reduction in precipitation caused a decrease in yield for Midville, especially based on the climate scenarios of the Global Climate Models (GCMs) Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation's model CSIRO-Mk3.0 and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's model GFDL-CM2.1. Overall, Calhoun, Williamson, Plains and Tifton will probably be more suitable for rainfed soybean production over the next 40 years than Midville. Farmers might shift to a later planting date, around 5 June, for the locations that were evaluated in the present study to avoid potential heat and drought stress during the summer months. The cultivars AG6702, AGS758RR and S80-P2 could be selected for rainfed soybean production since they had the highest rainfed yields among the six cultivars. In general, the present study showed that there are crop management options for soybean production in Georgia and the south-eastern USA that are adapted for the potential projected climate change conditions.

scholarly journals Assessment of Flood Risk Map under Climate Change RCP8.5 Scenarios in Taiwan

Water ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 207
Author(s):  
Yun-Ju Chen ◽  
Hsuan-Ju Lin ◽  
Jun-Jih Liou ◽  
Chao-Tzuen Cheng ◽  
Yung-Ming Chen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Risk Map ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Flood Risk Map

Climate change has exerted a significant global impact in recent years, and extreme weather-related hazards and incidents have become the new normal. For Taiwan in particular, the corresponding increase in disaster risk threatens not only the environment but also the lives, safety, and property of people. This highlights the need to develop a methodology for mapping disaster risk under climate change and delineating those regions that are potentially high-risk areas requiring adaptation to a changing climate in the future. This study provides a framework of flood risk map assessment under the RCP8.5 scenario by using different spatial scales to integrate the projection climate data of high resolution, inundation potential maps, and indicator-based approach at the end of the 21st century in Taiwan. The reference period was 1979–2003, and the future projection period was 2075–2099. High-resolution climate data developed by dynamic downscaling of the MRI-JMA-AGCM model was used to assess extreme rainfall events. The flood risk maps were constructed using two different spatial scales: the township level and the 5 km × 5 km grid. As to hazard-vulnerability(H-V) maps, users can overlay maps of their choice—such as those for land use distribution, district planning, agricultural crop distribution, or industrial distribution. Mapping flood risk under climate change can support better informed decision-making and policy-making processes in planning and preparing to intervene and control flood risks. The elderly population distribution is applied as an exposure indicator in order to guide advance preparation of evacuation plans for high-risk areas. This study found that higher risk areas are distributed mainly in northern and southern parts of Taiwan and the hazard indicators significantly increase in the northern, north-eastern, and southern regions under the RCP8.5 scenario. Moreover, the near-riparian and coastal townships of central and southern Taiwan have higher vulnerability levels. Approximately 14% of townships have a higher risk level of flooding disaster and another 3% of townships will become higher risk. For higher-risk townships, adaptation measures or strategies are suggested to prioritize improving flood preparation and protecting people and property. Such a flood risk map can be a communication tool to effectively inform decision- makers, citizens, and stakeholders about the variability of flood risk under climate change. Such maps enable decision-makers and national spatial planners to compare the relative flood risk of individual townships countrywide in order to determine and prioritize risk adaptation areas for planning spatial development policies.

Prediction of Crop Yield for New Mexico Based on Climate and Remote Sensing Data for the 1920–2019 Period

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 1389
Author(s):  
Kamini Yadav ◽  
Hatim M. E. Geli
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
New Mexico ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Remotely Sensed ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Yield Prediction ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Remotely Sensed Data

Agricultural production systems in New Mexico (NM) are under increased pressure due to climate change, drought, increased temperature, and variable precipitation, which can affect crop yields, feeds, and livestock grazing. Developing more sustainable production systems requires long-term measurements and assessment of climate change impacts on yields, especially over such a vulnerable region. Providing accurate yield predictions plays a key role in addressing a critical sustainability gap. The goal of this study is the development of effective crop yield predictions to allow for a better-informed cropland management and future production potential, and to develop climate-smart adaptation strategies for increased food security. The objectives were to (1) identify the most important climate variables that significantly influence and can be used to effectively predict yield, (2) evaluate the advantage of using remotely sensed data alone and in combination with climate variables for yield prediction, and (3) determine the significance of using short compared to long historical data records for yield prediction. This study focused on yield prediction for corn, sorghum, alfalfa, and wheat using climate and remotely sensed data for the 1920–2019 period. The results indicated that the use of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) alone is less accurate in predicting crop yields. The combination of climate and NDVI variables provided better predictions compared to the use of NDVI only to predict wheat, sorghum, and corn yields. However, the use of a climate only model performed better in predicting alfalfa yield. Yield predictions can be more accurate with the use of shorter data periods that are based on region-specific trends. The identification of the most important climate variables and accurate yield prediction pertaining to New Mexico’s agricultural systems can aid the state in developing climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies to enhance the sustainability of these systems.

The impact of climate change on Canadian archives

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda Oliver
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Disaster Planning ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Records Management ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This study aims to identify Canadian archives that are at risk for climate change threats, to present a snapshot of current practices around disaster planning, sustainability and climate adaptation and to provide recommended next steps for records managers and archivists adapting to climate change. Design/methodology/approach These objectives were achieved by analyzing the geographic locations of Canadian archives in relation to projected climate data and by analyzing the results of a survey distributed to staff at Canadian archival repositories. Findings This study found that all Canadian archives will be impacted by projected changes in both annual mean temperatures and precipitation to the year 2080. Themes that emerged surrounding climate adaptation strategies include the investment in the design and efficiency of spaces housing records and the importance of resilient buildings, the need for increased training on climate change, engaging senior leadership and administrators on climate change and developing regional strategies. Preparing for and mitigating the impact of climate change on the facilities and holdings needs to become a priority. Originality/value This research underscores the importance of developing climate adaptation strategies, considering the sustainability of records management and archival professional practice, increasing the resilience of the facilities and records and strengthening the disaster planning and recovery methods.

scholarly journals Climate change impacts on cattle production: analysis of cattle herders’ climate variability/change adaptation strategies in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 12-23
Author(s):  
Ayansina Ayanlade ◽  
Stephen M. Ojebisi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Cattle Production ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Qualitative Approaches ◽  
Weather Events

Abstract The study examines the seasonality in climate and extreme weather events, and its effect on cattle production in the Guinea Savannah ecological zone of Nigeria. The study uses both quantitative and qualitative approaches. Climate data of 34 years were used to examine the trends in rainfall pattern and climate variability while household survey was used to appraise the herders’ awareness of climate variability/change impacts and adaptation strategies. Cumulative Departure Index (CDI) method was used to assess the extreme weather events while descriptive statistics and multinomial logistic (MNL) regression model were used to identify the factors that determined herders’ adaptation strategies to climate change. The results revealed a significant spatiotemporal variation in both rainfall and temperature with CDI ranging from -1.39 to 3.3 and -2.3 to 1.81 respectively. The results revealed a reduction in the amount of water available for cattle production. From survey results, 97.5% of the herders identified drought as the major extreme weather event affecting livestock productivities in the study region. In the herder’s perception, the droughts are more severe in recent years than 34 years ago. The results from MNL revealed that extreme weather events, such as drought, has a positive likelihood on migration, at a 10% level of significance, the events has led to migration of cattle herders from the northern part of the study area toward the southern part in recent years.

scholarly journals Increasing flood risk under climate change: a pan-European assessment of the benefits of four adaptation strategies

2016 ◽  
Vol 136 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 507-521 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorenzo Alfieri ◽  
Luc Feyen ◽  
Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Adaptation Strategies

scholarly journals Assessment of smallholder farmers’ perception and adaptation response to climate change in the Olifants catchment, South Africa

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary Funke Olabanji ◽  
Nerhene Davis ◽  
Thando Ndarana ◽  
Anesu Gelfand Kuhudzai ◽  
Dawn Mahlobo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Smallholder Farmers ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Group Discussion ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Trend

Abstract Climate change is expected to affect the livelihood of rural farmers in South Africa particularly the smallholder farmers, due to their overwhelming dependence on rain-fed agriculture. This study examines smallholder farmers' perception of climate change, the adaptation strategies adopted and factors that influences their adaptive decisions. The unit of data collection was household interview and focus group discussion. Climate data for the Olifants catchment (1986–2015) were also collected to validate farmers' perception of climate change with actual climate trend. Data collected were analysed using descriptive statistics, Mann–Kendall trend, Sen's slope estimator and multinomial logit regression model. Results revealed that smallholder farmers are aware of climate change (98%), their perception of these changes aligns with actual meteorological data, as the Mann–Kendall test confirms a decreasing inter-annual rainfall trend (−0.172) and an increasing temperature trend (0.004). These changes in temperature and precipitation have prompted the adoption of various adaptation responses, among which the use of improved seeds, application of chemical fertilizer and changing planting dates were the most commonly practised. The main barriers to the adoption of adaptation strategies were lack of access to credit facility, market, irrigation, information about climate change and lack of extension service. The implication of this study is to provide information to policy-makers on the current adaptation responses adopted by farmers and ways in which their adaptive capacity can be improved in order to ensure food security.

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