scholarly journals Impacts of conventional and unconventional US monetary policies on global financial markets

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-24
Author(s):  
Shigeki Ono

AbstractThis paper investigates the impacts of conventional and unconventional US monetary policies on global financial markets, using the global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model from 2004 through 2017. The impulse response results suggest unconventional easing had little effect on stock prices as in conventional easing while the responses of interest rates indicate liquidity was provided throughout the world. An unconventional US monetary tightening policy shock could effectively affect the stock prices of the world as is the case with a conventional US monetary tightening shock. Furthermore, the transmission of a US monetary policy shock to stock prices via exchange rates tends to attenuate the decrease in stock prices both in the conventional and unconventional tightening (the exit from a zero rate) phases. On the other hand, the transmission tends to push down stock prices in the conventional, unconventional monetary easing and the unconventional tightening (the shadow rate is negative) phases.

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shigeki Ono

This paper investigates the spillovers of US conventional and unconventional monetary policies to Russian financial markets using VAR-X models. Impulse responses to an exogenous Federal Funds rate shock are assessed for all the endogenous variables. The empirical results show that both conventional and unconventional tightening monetary policy shocks decrease stock prices whereas an easing monetary policy shock does not increase stock prices. Moreover, the results suggest that an unconventional tightening monetary policy shock increases Russian interest rates and decreases oil prices, implying reduced liquidity in international financial markets.


2020 ◽  
pp. 1-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lukas Menkhoff ◽  
Malte Rieth ◽  
Tobias Stöhr

Evidence on the effectiveness of FX interventions is either limited to short horizons or hampered by debatable identification. We address these limitations by identifying a structural vector autoregressive model for the daily frequency with an external instrument. Generally, we find, for freely floating currencies, that FX intervention shocks significantly affect exchange rates and that this impact persists for months. The signaling channel dominates the portfolio channel. Moreover, interest rates tend to fall in response to sales of the domestic currency, whereas stock prices of large (exporting) firms increase after devaluation of the domestic currency.


2019 ◽  
Vol 101 (5) ◽  
pp. 921-932
Author(s):  
Carlos Madeira ◽  
João Madeira

This paper shows that since votes of members of the Federal Open Market Committee have been included in press statements, stock prices increase after the announcement when votes are unanimous but fall when dissent (which typically is due to preference for higher interest rates) occurs. This pattern started prior to the 2007–2008 financial crisis. The differences in stock market reaction between unanimity and dissent remain, even controlling for the stance of monetary policy and consecutive dissent. Statement semantics also do not seem to explain the documented effect. We find no differences between unanimity and dissent with respect to impact on market risk and Treasury securities.


According to a common recurring analysis approach, most studies have defined the present external and universal internal deficit crisis, as the result of a wrong financial deregulation appearing in most modern financial markets. Speculation pressures, relaxing policies, monitoring over banks capital and bank governance models, seem as paying a widespread role as well. On the contrary, some historical and present new behavioral viewpoints show a uniform result of new general widespread monetary mismanagement attitudes, in a global new monetary perspective. Both Western financial markets and the new European single currency creation are showing same surfacing effects, which are generally large internal national deficits, huge trade imbalances and growing unemployment rates. The general market collapses that occurred up to the last 2008 unexpected monetary disintegration, considered firstly as the logical final effect of deep systematic crisis, as never before interlinked during the the twentieth century, has brought to a confused and contradictory row of financial irrecoverable shocks. Stemming from the monetary dissolution materialized during the First World War and never recovered, but for the short Bretton Woods interlude, the international and most of national payment systems are nowadays in a liquidity, interest rates and severe taxation single trap. My firm belief is that what happened at the end of the last century is not the consequence of some specific well-defined deregulation or mismanagement of financial institutions and markets, neither a structural collapse of some previous deteriorated model, or a cyclical evolving of market tendencies. On the contrary, what surfaced from September 1987 to August 2008 and after, has been as well unfolding up to now as an unavoidable effect of the single monetary secular debasement and unproductive and inefficient macroeconomic policies and the disregard of minor welfare and micro-economic frontiers and boundaries inconsistent in a fast enlarging competitive world. In 2016, the 1987-2008 global financial bubbles, from peripheral defaults or market plunges, has become the “final euro crisis." As well, the 19 countries of the EMS, issuing the single euro currency, apart from symptoms of economic stagnation and useless recurring monetary policies, acknowledged internal and external huge rigid trade unbalances. Some countries have been sliding into deficits for years, while the governing powers of the Eurozone have intervened from emergency to emergency, most deeply in Greece. In the Euro contest, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph E. Stiglitz (Stiglitz, 2016) has been dismantling the first hour prevailing consensus around, which affected Europe, demolishing the stronghold of austerity, and has been offering a series of discussible plans that could rescue the continent and the related parties from further depression.


2015 ◽  
Vol 234 ◽  
pp. F2-F2

The world economy is expected to grow by 3.0 per cent in 2015, unchanged from our August forecast, and by 3.4 per cent in 2016, marginally weaker than projected last time. Growth in emerging market economies has weakened further; recoveries have remained hesitant in the advanced economies.The projected pickup in global growth next year will be supported by accommodative monetary policies and lower oil prices. Growth should strengthen further in 2017 as recoveries take hold in some key emerging markets. But considerable risks remain.We expect the US Federal Reserve to lead the turn in official interest rates in December, with the Bank of England following next February.


Author(s):  
Toufiq Agung Pratomo Sugito Putra ◽  
Sugiyanto Sugiyanto

Macroeconomics is an integral component of economic activity. The goal of this research is to demonstrate the effects of the macro-economic effect on stock returns with a more focused and tailored scope of the financial sector. This research uses a quantitative methodology with mathematical techniques, data used in the period 2001-2018, time series models with Vector Autoregressive (VAR) approaches where the data used are stationary and not co-integrated. The VAR model shows that if there is a parallel interaction between the measured variables, these variables can be considered similarly so that there are no more endogenous and exogenous variables. The findings showed that inflation, exchange rates and interest rates have no significant effect while economic growth had an impact on stock returns in the financial sector on the Indonesian stock exchange in 2001-2018


Author(s):  
Khakim Gayurov ◽  
◽  
Munira Toshmatova ◽  

According to the World Health Organization, the new coronavirus, which first appeared in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December last year, infected more than 110,000 people in at least 110 countries and territories of the world. The virus outbreak has become one of the most serious threats to the global economy and financial markets. Large institutions and banks have reduced their forecasts for the global economy, and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development is one of the last countries to do so. Meanwhile, concerns about the impact of coronavirus on the global economy have stirred markets around the world: stock prices and bond yields have plummeted. The continued spread of the new coronavirus has become one of the biggest threats to the global economy and financial markets.


Author(s):  
Gamze Özel

The financial markets use stochastic models to represent the seemingly random behavior of assets such as stocks, commodities, relative currency prices such as the price of one currency compared to that of another, such as the price of US Dollar compared to that of the Euro, and interest rates. These models are then used by quantitative analysts to value options on stock prices, bond prices, and on interest rates. This chapter gives an overview of the stochastic models and methods used in financial risk management. Given the random nature of future events on financial markets, the field of stochastic processes obviously plays an important role in quantitative risk management. Random walk, Brownian motion and geometric Brownian motion processes in risk management are explained. Simulations of these processes are provided with some software codes.


Author(s):  
Ismail Ismailov ◽  
Tomonobu Senjyu

The world economy strives for globalization, and most energy assets are connected with each other through correspondent banks and other mutual operations. The relevance of the topic of the thesis is due to the fact that in September 2019 a number of proposals were made to introduce the practice of negative interest rates in the national banking system due to the fact that Russian energy assets are not profitable to place in foreign currency..


1982 ◽  
Vol 99 ◽  
pp. 29-50

High real interest rates and high rates of unemployment were the main characteristics of the world economy in 1981, with relatively low growth rates as the link between them. Rates of inflation moderated.Since the huge increases in oil prices during 1979 gave a fresh and powerful upward twist to the inflationary spiral, the chief priority of governments in most OECD countries has been to get this turning down again. To this end they have followed strict monetary policies and fiscal policies which despite big budgetary deficits in some countries would be restrictive on a full-employment basis.


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