scholarly journals The impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on financial markets: a seismologic approach

Author(s):  
Alessandro Spelta ◽  
Nicolò Pecora ◽  
Andrea Flori ◽  
Paolo Giudici

AbstractThis work investigates financial volatility cascades generated by SARS-CoV-2 related news using concepts developed in the field of seismology. We analyze the impact of socio-economic and political announcements, as well as of financial stimulus disclosures, on the reference stock markets of the United States, United Kingdom, Spain, France, Germany and Italy. We quantify market efficiency in processing SARS-CoV-2 related news by means of the observed Omori power-law exponents and we relate these empirical regularities to investors’ behavior through the lens of a stylized Agent-Based financial market model. The analysis reveals that financial markets may underreact to the announcements by taking a finite time to re-adjust prices, thus moving against the efficient market hypothesis. We observe that this empirical regularity can be related to the speculative behavior of market participants, whose willingness to switch toward better performing investment strategies, as well as their degree of reactivity to price trend or mispricing, can induce long-lasting volatility cascades.

2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 297-308 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicole A. Errett, PhD, MSPH, CPH, CEM ◽  
Shannon Frattaroli, PhD, MPH ◽  
Beth A. Resnick, MPH ◽  
Daniel J. Barnett, MD, MPH ◽  
Lainie Rutkow, JD, PhD, MPH

Objective: Horizontal intergovernmental coordination, or interlocal collaboration, is an ongoing strategy to enhance public health emergency preparedness in the United States. This study aims to understand the impact of interlocal collaboration on emergency preparedness, and how the Urban Area Security Initiative (UASI) program, a federally administered grant program to promote regional preparedness capability development, has influenced perceptions of this relationship.Design: Semistructured interviews were conducted and recorded in early 2014. Transcribed data were coded and iteratively analyzed. A purposive and snowball sampling strategy was used.Setting: Interviews were conducted in person or by phone.Participants: Twenty-eight key informants were interviewed during 24 interviews. Individuals were selected as key informants due to their knowledge of a UASI region(s) and its governance structures, investment strategies, and challenges, as well as knowledge of the UASI program’s history and goals.Main outcome measure(s): Interviews were used to identify, describe, and characterize perceptions of interlocal collaboration, national emergency preparedness, and the UASI grant.Results: Impacts, challenges, incentives, facilitators, and disadvantages to interlocal collaboration were identified. Interlocal collaboration was found to impact preparedness by promoting the perceived dissolution of geopolitical boundaries; developing self-reliant regions; developing regional capabilities; promoting regional risk identification; and creating an appreciation of interlocal collaboration importance. The UASI program was thought to have a profound and unique impact on the development of interlocal collaboration infrastructure and on national preparedness.Conclusions: Interlocal collaborations contribute to overall national preparedness. Grant programs, such as the UASI, can incentivize and foster interlocal collaboration in preparedness.


2014 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 251-284
Author(s):  
Inho Lee ◽  
Shiyong Yoo

There have always been North Korea Risks in South Korea stock market since its opening. Some studies have concluded that it does not have a substantial impact on South Korea’s economy due to chronic geopolitical risks, while others have argued it has had an impact. However, in light of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) it can be argued that both opinions view that information about North Korea Risks affects stock markets and that stock prices react to it. This study analyzed the effects of North Korea Risks on South Korea’s stock market using event study methodology empirically, and it tested the semi-strong EMH-a market in which prices always fully reflect available information. The research results are following: First of all, North Korea Risks have an impact on South Korea’s stock market and the data was statistically significant. In particular, stock market already reflected information about the forewarned events like nuclear test. However, market also responded to information about sudden events such as the impact of Kim Jung-il’s death on the South-North economic cooperation stock. Portfolio analysis demonstrated that small capital stocks were affected more than large caps. These results cannot reject the EMH. Also, estimates of market model and that of Fama-French three-factor model did not show a statistically significant difference in different verification. There was no statistically significant difference between growth and value stock in large caps portfolio either. However, there was a statistically significant difference between defense stock and South-North economic cooperation stock, small caps and big caps, and weighted average and simple average. The significance of this study lies in that it conducted the event study by variety estimation model with objective standards for selecting events when measuring the effect of North Korea Risks.


2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (07) ◽  
pp. 1085-1090
Author(s):  
Harsh Vikram Arora ◽  

The COVID19 pandemic which came unprecedentedly has brought forward a lot of confusion and unrest in the world. There are a lot of changes with regard to the global landscape in multiple ways. SARS-CoV-2 is the primary virus, which is the root contributor to the COVID19 outbreak, which started in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019. It did not take much time to spread across the world. This pandemic has resulted in a universal health crisis, along with a major decline in the global economy. One of the major reasons for the fluctuation in the stock price is supply and demand. When the number of people who want to sell their stocks outnumbers those who want to purchase it, the stock price drops. Due to the result in the gap, the financial markets will suffer in the short duration, but in the long run, markets will correct themselves and would increase again. There is a sharp decline in the stock price because of the pandemic. The current scenario has resulted in a world health crisis which has contributed to global and economic crises. Almost all financial markets across the world have been affected by the recent health crisis, with stock and bond values falling gradually and severely. In the United States, the Dow Jones and S& P 500 indices have fallen by more than 20%. The Shanghai Stock Exchange and the New York Dow Jones Stock Exchange both indicate that they had a significant impact on China’s and the United States’ financial markets. The primary purpose of this paper is to determine the impact of COVID19 on stock markets. The rapid spread of the virus has left a major impact on the global financial markets. There is a link between the pandemic and the stock market, and this has been studied in this paper. Along with it, an attempt is taken to compare stock price returns in pre-COVID19 and post-COVID19 scenarios. The stock market in India faced uncertainty during the pandemic, according to the findings.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Kwabena Boasiako

<p><b>This thesis is composed of three self-contained empirical essays in corporate finance, with the first two exploring the financial policy and credit risk implications of data breaches, and the third examining whether financing influences the sensitivity of cash and investment to asset tangibility. In the first essay, we contribute to the growing debate on cybersecurity risks and how firms can insulate themselves, at least partially, from the adverse effects of data breach risks. Specifically, we examine the effects of data breach disclosure laws and the subsequent disclosure of data breaches on the cash policies of corporations in the United States (U.S.). Exploiting a series of natural experiments regarding staggered state-level data breach disclosure laws, we find that the passage of mandatory disclosure laws leads to an increase in cash holdings. Our finding suggests that mandatory data breach disclosure laws increase the ex ante risks related to data breaches, hence, firms hold on to more cash as a precautionary motive. Further, we find firms that suffer data breaches adjust their financial policies by holding more cash as well as decreasing external finance and investment.</b></p> <p>The second essay examines the impact of data breaches on firm credit risk. Using firm-level credit ratings and credit default swap (CDS) spreads to proxy for credit risk, we find that data breaches lead to increases in firm credit risk. Firms exposed to data breaches are more likely to experience credit rating downgrades and an increase in the CDS spread of traded bonds. Also, firms who suffer data breaches report lower sales and ROA, experience an increase in financial distress, and conditional on a data breach incident, the likelihood of a future data breach increases. Lastly, these effects are magnified for firms with low-interest coverage ratios.</p> <p>In the third essay, using the financial deregulation of seasoned equity issuance in the U.S. as an exogenous shock to access to equity markets, I investigate the influence of financing on the sensitivity of cash and investment to asset tangibility. I show that financing dampens the sensitivity of cash and investment to asset tangibility and promotes investment and firm growth. This provides evidence that public firms even in well-developed financial markets such as the U.S., benefit from financial deregulation that removes barriers to external equity financing, shedding light on the role of financial markets in fostering growth.</p>


2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Muhammad Sohail Khalil ◽  
Usman Ullah

The novel corona virus called as covid-19 spread worldwide affecting the health and economic status of countries all over the globe. The major aim of this study was to analyze the stock prices during the covid-19 pandemic. The sample of the study is taken from 15 May to 15 June 2020, stock prices as well as the covid-19 confirmed cases of three countries Pakistan, India and Italy. This study has both practical and theoretical implications. Investment behavior, efficient market hypothesis and the prediction of stock prices during the anticipated 2nd wave of covid-19 are some of the main points this study has covered. Further study is needed to examine pre, mid and post lockdown impact on stock prices. This study applied simple regression model to examine the impact of covid-19 on financial markets from 15 May to 15 June 2020 in Pakistan, India & Italy. The study findings were intriguing. The study findings indicate that there is positive significant relation among these variables (Positive cases and stock prices) on that period of time (15 May to 15 June 2020 in Pakistan, India & Italy). This research suggests that covid-19 confirmed positive cases had significant impact on financial markets during 15 May to 15 June 2020 on these three stock indices of Pakistan, India and Italy (KSE-100, SENSEX & FTSE Italia).


Both academic and applied researchers studying financial markets and other economic series have become interested in the topic of chaotic dynamics. The possibility of chaos in financial markets opens important questions for both economic theorists as well as financial market participants. This paper will clarify the empirical evidence for chaos in financial markets and macroeconomic series emphasizing what exactly is known about these time series in terms of forecastability and chaos. We also compare these two concepts from a financial market perspective contrasting the objectives of the practitioner with those of the economic researchers. Finally, we will speculate on the impact of chaos and nonlinear modelling on future economic research.


2018 ◽  
Vol 112 ◽  
pp. 41-44
Author(s):  
Sharon Brown-Hruska

One of the near casualties of the global financial crisis (Crisis) was the march toward a more principles-based global regulatory structure that simultaneously encouraged cross-border transactions and recognized sovereign authorities over them without the necessity of a one-size-fits-all regulatory framework. The implementation of the G20 reforms for over-the-counter derivatives was far more prescriptive than principled. Post-crisis implementation of the G20 reforms, embodied in the United States in Title 7 of the Dodd Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, yielded a costly, and in some markets, persistent loss of liquidity and fragmentation as market participants have attempted to sort out complex and sometimes competing regulatory requirements for reporting, trading, clearing, margin, and capital in practice.


2011 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 335 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro Luiz Valls Pereira ◽  
Ricardo Pires De Souza Santos

This article aims to test the hypothesis of contagion between the indices of financial markets from the United States into Brazil, Japan and the UK for the 2000 to 2009 period. Time varying copulas were used to capture the impact of the sub-prime crisis in the dependence between markets. The implemented model was an ARMA(1,0) st-ARCH(1,2) to the marginal distributions and Normal and Joe-Clayton (SJC) copulas for the joint distribution. The results obtained allow to conclude that both for the gaussian copula and for the SJC copula there is evidence of contagion between the US market and the Brazilian market. For the other two markets, the UK and Japan, the evidence of the presence of contagion between these markets and the US has not been sufficiently clear in both copula.


2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 65 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michaela Hohlmeier ◽  
Christian Fahrholz

The UK’s withdrawal from the EU will have far-reaching consequences on the European economy. However, the ultimate consequences of Brexit, especially for financial markets, depend on the final agreement, which is still under negotiation. Currently, regulated financial services can be provided across borders under simplified conditions. Without a special agreement, these EU passports cease to apply for business activities between both jurisdictions after Brexit. The EU third-country regimes for non-EEA companies are too few and too unsecure for intensive relations in trade and services. Knowing that London is the leading global financial center, an adequate agreement needs to be found, to ensure affordable and sufficient financial services for business, investors, and consumers. Unfortunately, it appears almost impossible to find solutions for the often contrary interests and various thematic areas in the remaining negotiating period—a no deal scenario becomes more likely. As a result, market participants have started to adapt structures and processes accordingly, by relocating certain functions to the EU27. Nevertheless, it is up to the negotiators to reach an agreement, which achieves the best possible outcome for all affected parties taking into account the opportunity costs of a failure in present Brexit negotiations.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Kwabena Boasiako

<p><b>This thesis is composed of three self-contained empirical essays in corporate finance, with the first two exploring the financial policy and credit risk implications of data breaches, and the third examining whether financing influences the sensitivity of cash and investment to asset tangibility. In the first essay, we contribute to the growing debate on cybersecurity risks and how firms can insulate themselves, at least partially, from the adverse effects of data breach risks. Specifically, we examine the effects of data breach disclosure laws and the subsequent disclosure of data breaches on the cash policies of corporations in the United States (U.S.). Exploiting a series of natural experiments regarding staggered state-level data breach disclosure laws, we find that the passage of mandatory disclosure laws leads to an increase in cash holdings. Our finding suggests that mandatory data breach disclosure laws increase the ex ante risks related to data breaches, hence, firms hold on to more cash as a precautionary motive. Further, we find firms that suffer data breaches adjust their financial policies by holding more cash as well as decreasing external finance and investment.</b></p> <p>The second essay examines the impact of data breaches on firm credit risk. Using firm-level credit ratings and credit default swap (CDS) spreads to proxy for credit risk, we find that data breaches lead to increases in firm credit risk. Firms exposed to data breaches are more likely to experience credit rating downgrades and an increase in the CDS spread of traded bonds. Also, firms who suffer data breaches report lower sales and ROA, experience an increase in financial distress, and conditional on a data breach incident, the likelihood of a future data breach increases. Lastly, these effects are magnified for firms with low-interest coverage ratios.</p> <p>In the third essay, using the financial deregulation of seasoned equity issuance in the U.S. as an exogenous shock to access to equity markets, I investigate the influence of financing on the sensitivity of cash and investment to asset tangibility. I show that financing dampens the sensitivity of cash and investment to asset tangibility and promotes investment and firm growth. This provides evidence that public firms even in well-developed financial markets such as the U.S., benefit from financial deregulation that removes barriers to external equity financing, shedding light on the role of financial markets in fostering growth.</p>


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