Consistency of ground-motion predictions from the past four decades: peak ground velocity and displacement, Arias intensity and relative significant duration

ABSTRACT This study used earthquake records from China to investigate comprehensively the correlation coefficients between various intensity measures (IMs), including peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, spectral acceleration, spectrum intensity, acceleration spectrum intensity, Arias intensity, cumulative absolute velocity, and significant duration. After collection of metadata information, 681 three-component ground-motion recordings with magnitudes of Mw 4.9–6.9 were carefully processed and extracted from the China National Strong-Motion Observation Network System dataset (2007–2015). The applicability of both the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA)-West2 ground-motion model (GMM) and of other GMMs was verified for different IMs, regarding the China dataset. Then, empirical correlation coefficients between different IMs were computed, considering the uncertainty due to the different sample sizes of the observational data using the bootstrap sampling method and Fisher z transformation. Finally, the median values of the correlation coefficients were fitted as a continuous function of the vibration period in the range of 0.01–10.0 s and compared with the results of similar studies developed for shallow crustal regions worldwide. The developed region-specific correlation coefficient prediction model yielded tendencies approximately like those reported in other studies. However, obvious differences were found in long-period ranges of amplitude-based IMs, cumulative effect IMs, and significant duration. These results suggest the necessity of using region-specific correlation coefficients for generalized IMs in China. The presented results and parametric models could be easily implemented in a generalized IM ground-motion selection method or a vector-based probability seismic hazard analysis procedure for China.

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Characteristics of strong ground motion attenuation in the 2019 Mw 5.8 Changning earthquake, Sichuan, China

Journal of Seismology ◽

10.1007/s10950-021-09994-z ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

J. J. Hu ◽

H. Zhang ◽

J. B. Zhu ◽

G. H. Liu

Keyword(s):

Ground Motion ◽

Ground Motions ◽

Response Spectra ◽

Peak Ground Velocity ◽

Arias Intensity ◽

Ground Acceleration ◽

Motion Models ◽

Ground Motion Attenuation ◽

Short Period ◽

Strong Ground

AbstractA moderate magnitude earthquake with Mw 5.8 occurred on June 17, 2019, in Changning County, Sichuan Province, China, causing 13 deaths, 226 injuries, and serious engineering damage. This earthquake induced heavier damage than earthquakes of similar magnitude. To explain this phenomenon in terms of ground motion characteristics, based on 58 sets of strong ground motions in this earthquake, the peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), acceleration response spectra (Sa), duration, and Arias intensity are analyzed. The results show that the PGA, PGV, and Sa are larger than the predicted values from some global ground motion models. The between-event residuals reveal that the source effects on the intermediate-period and long-period ground motions are stronger than those on short-period ground motions. Comparison of Arias intensity attenuation with the global models indicates that the energy of ground motions of the Changning earthquake is larger than those of earthquakes with the same magnitude.

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Ground-Motion Duration Prediction Model from Recorded Mexican Interplate and Intermediate-Depth Intraslab Earthquakes

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America ◽

10.1785/0120200196 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Miguel A. Jaimes ◽

Adrián-David García-Soto

Keyword(s):

Prediction Model ◽

Ground Motion ◽

Predictive Models ◽

Focal Depth ◽

Duration Models ◽

Arias Intensity ◽

Intermediate Depth ◽

Fault Surface ◽

Significant Duration ◽

Duration Prediction

ABSTRACT Predictive models for ground-motion duration of Mexican subduction interplate and intermediate-depth intraslab earthquakes are presented. The considered sites are rock sites. For the ground-motion duration models, the significant durations for ranges between 5%–75%, 5%–95%, and 2.5%–97.5% of Arias intensity are considered for the analyses. The significant duration predictive models are expressed in terms of magnitude, distance, and focal depth; this last variable is considered only for intraslab earthquakes. A total of 418 and 366 accelerograms obtained from 40 Mexican interplate and 23 intraslab earthquakes, respectively, are used. The applicability of the duration equation for subduction interplate events is restricted to moment magnitudes 5<Mw<8 and distances to the fault surface 17<R<400 km; for intraslab events, it is restricted to 5.2<Mw<8.2, 22<R<400 km, and focal depths 35<HD<75 km. The models are compared against existent models for Mexico and other regions. The analyses and comparisons indicate that using ground-motion duration models accounting for the two types of earthquakes is required and that such models should be developed for specific regions.

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From scenario-based seismic hazard to scenario-based landslide hazard: rewinding to the past via statistical simulations

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment ◽

10.1007/s00477-020-01959-x ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Luguang Luo ◽

Luigi Lombardo ◽

Cees van Westen ◽

Xiangjun Pei ◽

Runqiu Huang

Keyword(s):

Ground Motion ◽

Land Use Planning ◽

Landslide Susceptibility ◽

Additive Model ◽

Slope Instability ◽

Susceptibility Map ◽

Jiuzhaigou Earthquake ◽

Full Spectrum ◽

The Past ◽

Time Invariant

AbstractThe vast majority of statistically-based landslide susceptibility studies assumes the slope instability process to be time-invariant under the definition that “the past and present are keys to the future”. This assumption may generally be valid. However, the trigger, be it a rainfall or an earthquake event, clearly varies over time. And yet, the temporal component of the trigger is rarely included in landslide susceptibility studies and only confined to hazard assessment. In this work, we investigate a population of landslides triggered in response to the 2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquake ($$M_w = 6.5$$ M w = 6.5 ) including the associated ground motion in the analyses, these being carried out at the Slope Unit (SU) level. We do this by implementing a Bayesian version of a Generalized Additive Model and assuming that the slope instability across the SUs in the study area behaves according to a Bernoulli probability distribution. This procedure would generally produce a susceptibility map reflecting the spatial pattern of the specific trigger and therefore of limited use for land use planning. However, we implement this first analytical step to reliably estimate the ground motion effect, and its distribution, on unstable SUs. We then assume the effect of the ground motion to be time-invariant, enabling statistical simulations for any ground motion scenario that occurred in the area from 1933 to 2017. As a result, we obtain the full spectrum of potential coseismic susceptibility patterns over the last century and compress this information into a hazard model/map representative of all the possible ground motion patterns since 1933. This backward statistical simulations can also be further exploited in the opposite direction where, by accounting for scenario-based ground motion, one can also use it in a forward direction to estimate future unstable slopes.

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Simulation of non-stationary stochastic ground motions based on recent Italian earthquakes

Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering ◽

10.1007/s10518-021-01077-1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Fabio Sabetta ◽

Antonio Pugliese ◽

Gabriele Fiorentino ◽

Giovanni Lanzano ◽

Lucia Luzi

Keyword(s):

Ground Motion ◽

Ground Motions ◽

Strong Motion ◽

Stochastic Simulations ◽

Model Parameters ◽

Motion Model ◽

Arias Intensity ◽

Time Frequency ◽

Ground Motion Model ◽

Ground Motion Records

AbstractThis work presents an up-to-date model for the simulation of non-stationary ground motions, including several novelties compared to the original study of Sabetta and Pugliese (Bull Seism Soc Am 86:337–352, 1996). The selection of the input motion in the framework of earthquake engineering has become progressively more important with the growing use of nonlinear dynamic analyses. Regardless of the increasing availability of large strong motion databases, ground motion records are not always available for a given earthquake scenario and site condition, requiring the adoption of simulated time series. Among the different techniques for the generation of ground motion records, we focused on the methods based on stochastic simulations, considering the time- frequency decomposition of the seismic ground motion. We updated the non-stationary stochastic model initially developed in Sabetta and Pugliese (Bull Seism Soc Am 86:337–352, 1996) and later modified by Pousse et al. (Bull Seism Soc Am 96:2103–2117, 2006) and Laurendeau et al. (Nonstationary stochastic simulation of strong ground-motion time histories: application to the Japanese database. 15 WCEE Lisbon, 2012). The model is based on the S-transform that implicitly considers both the amplitude and frequency modulation. The four model parameters required for the simulation are: Arias intensity, significant duration, central frequency, and frequency bandwidth. They were obtained from an empirical ground motion model calibrated using the accelerometric records included in the updated Italian strong-motion database ITACA. The simulated accelerograms show a good match with the ground motion model prediction of several amplitude and frequency measures, such as Arias intensity, peak acceleration, peak velocity, Fourier spectra, and response spectra.

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Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Tianshui Urban Area, Gansu Province, China

International Journal of Geophysics ◽

10.1155/2012/461863 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 2012 ◽

pp. 1-10 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Zhenming Wang ◽

David T. Butler ◽

Edward W. Woolery ◽

Lanmin Wang

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazard ◽

Ground Motion ◽

Seismic Design ◽

Hazard Analysis ◽

Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽

Gansu Province ◽

Mitigation Measures ◽

Peak Ground Velocity ◽

Ground Acceleration ◽

Acceleration Time Histories

A scenario seismic hazard analysis was performed for the city of Tianshui. The scenario hazard analysis utilized the best available geologic and seismological information as well as composite source model (i.e., ground motion simulation) to derive ground motion hazards in terms of acceleration time histories, peak values (e.g., peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity), and response spectra. This study confirms that Tianshui is facing significant seismic hazard, and certain mitigation measures, such as better seismic design for buildings and other structures, should be developed and implemented. This study shows that PGA of 0.3 g (equivalent to Chinese intensity VIII) should be considered for seismic design of general building and PGA of 0.4 g (equivalent to Chinese intensity IX) for seismic design of critical facility in Tianshui.

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A theoretical study of the radiation from small strikeslip earthquakes at close distances

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America ◽

10.1785/bssa0730010083 ◽

1983 ◽

Vol 73 (1) ◽

pp. 83-96 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Michel Campillo ◽

Michel Bouchon

Keyword(s):

Ground Motion ◽

Epicentral Distance ◽

Homogeneous Medium ◽

Source Model ◽

Strike Slip ◽

Peak Ground Velocity ◽

Corner Frequency ◽

Crack Model ◽

Sharp Change ◽

S Wave

abstract We present a study of the seismic radiation of a physically realistic source model—the circular crack model of Madariaga—at close distance range and for vertically heterogeneous crustal structures. We use this model to represent the source of small strike-slip earthquakes. We show that the characteristics of the radiated seismic spectra, like the corner frequency, are strongly affected by the presence of the free surface and by crustal layering, and that they can be considerably different from the ones of the homogeneous-medium far-field solution. The vertical and radial displacement spectra are the most strongly affected. We use this source model to calculate the decay of peak ground velocity with epicentral distance and source depth for small strike-slip earthquakes in California. For distances between 10 and 80 km, the peak horizontal velocity decay is of the form r−1.25 for a 4-km hypocentral depth and r−1.65 for deeper sources. The predominance of supercritically reflected arrivals beyond epicentral distances of 70 to 80 km produces a sharp change in the rate of decay of the ground motion. For most of the cases considered, the peak ground velocity increases between 80 and 100 km. We also show that the S-wave velocity in the source layer is the lower limit of phase velocities associated with significant ground motion.

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The 30 October 2020 Samos (Eastern Aegean Sea) Earthquake: effects of source rupture, path and local-site conditions on the observed and simulated ground motions

10.21203/rs.3.rs-215817/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Aybige Akinci ◽

Daniele Cheloni ◽

AHMET ANIL DINDAR

Keyword(s):

Ground Motion ◽

Structural Damage ◽

Ground Motions ◽

Aegean Sea ◽

Peak Ground Velocity ◽

Ground Shaking ◽

Local Site ◽

Eastern Aegean ◽

Motion Characteristics ◽

Eastern Aegean Sea

Abstract On 30 October 2020 a MW 7.0 earthquake occurred in the eastern Aegean Sea, between the Greek island of Samos and Turkey’s Aegean coast, causing considerable seismic damage and deaths, especially in the Turkish city of Izmir, approximately 70 km from the epicenter. In this study, we provide a detailed description of the Samos earthquake, starting from the fault rupture to the ground motion characteristics. We first use Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and Global Positioning System (GPS) data to constrain the source mechanisms. Then, we utilize this information to analyze the ground motion characteristics of the mainshock in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), and spectral pseudo-accelerations. Modelling of geodetic data shows that the Samos earthquake ruptured a NNE-dipping normal fault located offshore north of Samos, with up to 2.5-3 m of slip and an estimated geodetic moment of 3.3 ⨯ 1019 Nm (MW 7.0). Although low PGA were induced by the earthquake, the ground shaking was strongly amplified in Izmir throughout the alluvial sediments. Structural damage observed in Izmir reveals the potential of seismic risk due to the local site effects. To better understand the earthquake characteristics, we generated and compared stochastic strong ground motions with the observed ground motion parameters as well as the ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs), exploring also the efficacy of the region-specific parameters which may be improved to better predict the expected ground shaking from future large earthquakes in the region.

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Seismic hazard evaluation

Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering ◽

10.5459/bnzsee.33.3.371-386 ◽

2000 ◽

Vol 33 (3) ◽

pp. 371-386 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

Paul Somerville

Keyword(s):

Seismic Hazard ◽

Ground Motion ◽

Ground Motions ◽

Strong Motion ◽

Earthquake Source ◽

Hazard Evaluation ◽

Data Set ◽

Motion Models ◽

The Past ◽

Ground Motion Models

This paper reviews concepts and trends in seismic hazard characterization that have emerged in the past decade, and identifies trends and concepts that are anticipated during the coming decade. New methods have been developed for characterizing potential earthquake sources that use geological and geodetic data in conjunction with historical seismicity data. Scaling relationships among earthquake source parameters have been developed to provide a more detailed representation of the earthquake source for ground motion prediction. Improved empirical ground motion models have been derived from a strong motion data set that has grown markedly over the past decade. However, these empirical models have a large degree of uncertainty because the magnitude - distance - soil category parameterization of these models often oversimplifies reality. This reflects the fact that other conditions that are known to have an important influence on strong ground motions, such as near- fault rupture directivity effects, crustal waveguide effects, and basin response effects, are not treated as parameters of these simple models. Numerical ground motion models based on seismological theory that include these additional effects have been developed and extensively validated against recorded ground motions, and used to estimate the ground motions of past earthquakes and predict the ground motions of future scenario earthquakes. The probabilistic approach to characterizing the ground motion that a given site will experience in the future is very compatible with current trends in earthquake engineering and the development of building codes. Performance based design requires a more comprehensive representation of ground motions than has conventionally been used. Ground motions estimates are needed at multiple annual probability levels, and may need to be specified not only by response spectra but also by suites of strong motion time histories for input into time-domain non-linear analyses of structures.

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Ground motion models for Arias intensity, cumulative absolute velocity, peak incremental ground velocity, and significant duration in New Zealand

Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering ◽

10.5459/bnzsee.52.4.193-207 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 52 (4) ◽

pp. 193-207 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Zach Bullock

Keyword(s):

New Zealand ◽

Ground Motion ◽

Absolute Velocity ◽

Taupo Volcanic Zone ◽

Arias Intensity ◽

Intensity Measures ◽

Motion Models ◽

Cumulative Absolute Velocity ◽

Functional Forms ◽

Ground Motion Models

This study proposes empirical ground motion models for a variety of non-spectral intensity measures and significant durations in New Zealand. Equations are presented for the prediction of the median and maximum rotated components of Arias intensity, cumulative absolute velocity, cumulative absolute velocity above a 5 cm/s2 acceleration threshold, peak incremental ground velocity, and the 5% to 75% and 5% to 95% significant durations. Recent research has highlighted the usefulness of these parameters in both structural and geotechnical engineering. The New Zealand Strong Motion Database provides the database for regression and includes many earthquakes from all regions of New Zealand with the exceptions of Auckland and Northland, Otago and Southland, and Taranaki. The functional forms for the proposed models are selected using cross validation. The possible influence of effects not typically included in ground motion models for these intensity measures is considered, such as hanging wall effects and basin depth effects, as well as altered attenuation in the Taupo Volcanic Zone. The selected functional forms include magnitude and rupture depth scaling, attenuation with distance, and shallow site effects. Finally, the spatial autocorrelation of the models’ within-event residuals is considered and recommendations are made for developing correlated maps of intensity predictions stochastically.

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