Modeling domestic water demand in Huaihe River Basin of China under climate change and population dynamics

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 911-924 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao-Jun Wang ◽  
Jian-Yun Zhang ◽  
Shamsuddin Shahid ◽  
Wei Xie ◽  
Chao-Yang Du ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Huaihe River Basin ◽  
Huaihe River ◽  
Domestic Water ◽  
Domestic Water Demand

scholarly journals Forecasting domestic water demand in the Haihe river basin under changing environment

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 ◽  
pp. 51-55 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao-Jun Wang ◽  
Jian-Yun Zhang ◽  
Shamsuddin Shahid ◽  
Yu-Xuan Xie ◽  
Xu Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Haihe River Basin ◽  
Domestic Water ◽  
Haihe River ◽  
Continuous Increase ◽  
Domestic Water Demand ◽  
The Haihe River Basin

Abstract. A statistical model has been developed for forecasting domestic water demand in Haihe river basin of China due to population growth, technological advances and climate change. Historical records of domestic water use, climate, population and urbanization are used for the development of model. An ensemble of seven general circulation models (GCMs) namely, BCC-CSM1-1, BNU-ESM, CNRM-CM5, GISS-E2-R, MIROC-ESM, PI-ESM-LR, MRI-CGCM3 were used for the projection of climate and the changes in water demand in the Haihe River basin under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5. The results showed that domestic water demand in different sub-basins of the Haihe river basin will gradually increase due to continuous increase of population and rise in temperature. It is projected to increase maximum 136.22 × 108 m3 by GCM BNU-ESM and the minimum 107.25 × 108 m3 by CNRM-CM5 in 2030. In spite of uncertainty in projection, it can be remarked that climate change and population growth would cause increase in water demand and consequently, reduce the gap between water supply and demand, which eventually aggravate the condition of existing water stress in the basin. Water demand management should be emphasized for adaptation to ever increasing water demand and mitigation of the impacts of environmental changes.

scholarly journals Domestic water demand forecasting in the Yellow River basin under changing environment

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 379-388
Author(s):  
Xiao-jun Wang ◽  
Jian-yun Zhang ◽  
Shamsuddin Shahid ◽  
Lang Yu ◽  
Chen Xie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Yellow River Basin ◽  
The Yellow River ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Domestic Water ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Domestic Water Demand ◽  
The Yellow River Basin

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to develop a statistical-based model to forecast future domestic water demand in the context of climate change, population growth and technological development in Yellow River. Design/methodology/approach The model is developed through the analysis of the effects of climate variables and population on domestic water use in eight sub-basins of the Yellow River. The model is then used to forecast water demand under different environment change scenarios. Findings The model projected an increase in domestic water demand in the Yellow River basin in the range of 67.85 × 108 to 62.20 × 108 m3 in year 2020 and between 73.32 × 108 and 89.27 × 108 m3 in year 2030. The general circulation model Beijing Normal University-Earth System Model (BNU-ESM) predicted the highest increase in water demand in both 2020 and 2030, while Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques Climate Model v.5 (CNRM-CM5) and Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate- Earth System (MIROC-ESM) projected the lowest increase in demand in 2020 and 2030, respectively. The fastest growth in water demand is found in the region where water demand is already very high, which may cause serious water shortage and conflicts among water users. Originality/value The simple regression-based domestic water demand model proposed in the study can be used for rapid evaluation of possible changes in domestic water demand due to environmental changes to aid in adaptation and mitigation planning.

Forecasting industrial water demand in Huaihe River Basin due to environmental changes

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 469-483 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiao-jun Wang ◽  
Jian-yun Zhang ◽  
Shamsuddin Shahid ◽  
Shou-hai Bi ◽  
Amgad Elmahdi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Industrial Water ◽  
Huaihe River Basin ◽  
Huaihe River ◽  
Industrial Water Demand

scholarly journals On the Predictability of Daily Rainfall during Rainy Season over the Huaihe River Basin

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 916 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qing Cao ◽  
Zhenchun Hao ◽  
Feifei Yuan ◽  
Ronny Berndtsson ◽  
Shijie Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Rainy Season ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Amount ◽  
Parameters Estimation ◽  
Huaihe River Basin ◽  
Huaihe River ◽  
The Huaihe River

In terms of climate change and precipitation, there is large interest in how large-scale climatic features affect regional rainfall amount and rainfall occurrence. Large-scale climate elements need to be downscaled to the regional level for hydrologic applications. Here, a new Nonhomogeneous Hidden Markov Model (NHMM) called the Bayesian-NHMM is presented for downscaling and predicting of multisite daily rainfall during rainy season over the Huaihe River Basin (HRB). The Bayesian-NHMM provides a Bayesian method for parameters estimation. The model avoids the risk to have no solutions for parameter estimation, which often occurs in the traditional NHMM that uses point estimates of parameters. The Bayesian-NHMM accurately captures seasonality and interannual variability of rainfall amount and wet days during the rainy season. The model establishes a link between large-scale meteorological characteristics and local precipitation patterns. It also provides a more stable and efficient method to estimate parameters in the model. These results suggest that prediction of daily precipitation could be improved by the suggested new Bayesian-NHMM method, which can be helpful for water resources management and research on climate change.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change on water resources in the Huaihe River Basin

2018 ◽  
Vol 246 ◽  
pp. 01090
Author(s):  
Wang kai ◽  
Qian mingkai ◽  
Xu shijing ◽  
Liang shuxian ◽  
Chen hongyu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Arid Zone ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Huaihe River Basin ◽  
Huaihe River ◽  
The Huaihe River ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

The Huaihe river basin, located in the transitional area of the humid zone to the semi arid zone, is a subtropical monsoon zone. By analysis of historical observation data, the annual average surface temperature increased by 0.5℃ over the past 50 years. However, the precipitation showed a fluctuation trend. Based on the hydrological and meteorological data of Huaihe River Basin, this paper studies impacts of climate change on water resources in Huaihe basin by using the Xinanjiang monthly hydrological model in conjunction with prediction products of NCAR climate model. The results show that the precipitation in the basin had a fluctuating upward trend under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and the increase or decrease trend of precipitation in RCP2.6 scenario is not significant. The model predicted that the temperature of the river basin in the 3 scenarios shows significant rising trend from year 2001 to 2100. However, the annual runoff of the Huaihe River Basin shows an increasing trend but not significant from year 2001 to 2100.

Impact of climate change on flood and drought events in Huaihe River Basin, China

2012 ◽  
Vol 43 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 14-22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chuanguo Yang ◽  
Zhongbo Yu ◽  
Zhenchun Hao ◽  
Jiangyun Zhang ◽  
Jianting Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Wavelet Transform ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Huaihe River Basin ◽  
Huaihe River ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Morlet Wavelet Transform ◽  
The Impact

The impact of climate change on floods and droughts in Huaihe River Basin is studied using a coupled land-surface hydrology model and continuous wavelet transform technique. Observed temperature in the basin has increased by approximately 0.228 °C per decade since 1951. Observed precipitation and simulated and observed streamflows are used to grade flood and drought events. Two composite grading indices derived from the three series using different weight values are defined for reducing uncertainties caused by errors of observation and simulation and the effect of human activity on observed streamflow. The frequency of flood and drought events is quantified using the Morlet wavelet transform and compared with the trend of average temperature to test for any relationship between climate change and flood/drought frequency. This study shows that flood and drought events have occurred more frequently since the 1980s. The trend of flood and drought events is positively related to climate warming with a coefficient of determination of 0.88 in the Huaihe River Basin.

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